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My Dad will be 98 in a few weeks, and my Mom is 93, and they're both still around, so I think statistically I've got a good chance of getting to 2020. Age above replacement person (AARP)?
James 'Absolutely' Believes in Kimbrel, Price Moves
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$/WO' NO MO, dept.
Bill James was on the MLB Now show and Brian Kenny asked him whether he was behind the David Price and Craig Kimbrel moves. He floored me by gushing over the moves. 9 times out of 10, he's going to acknowledge both sides of the argument, while 6 of those 9 times he'll take a "preferred position." Not this time. And don't ax whether he was carrying spears for Sox management; he was not.
David Price got $31M x 7 years. You can bet that Price will NOT be an ace for all seven years; in fact if he's an ace for even 3 of the years, he'll probably opt out. But Dave Cameron, of all people, argues that the investment is reasonable. He has come around to the thinking that even if the odds are 3:1 against Price earning his contract, the huge payoff of a KC-type reward justifies the gamble. He writes,
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To put the concept in basic terms, if I told you I'd sell you a raffle ticket with a 10% chance of winning, and the prize was $100, you should rationally buy as many tickets as I'll allow you to purchase for $9.99 or less. Every single one of them is a likely loser, but the one in 10 that pays out will more than make up for the other nine failures. In poker, this strategy is referred to as expected value, and professionals often bet into hands they know they're likely to lose simply because they know that their unlikely wins will make all the expected losses worth it in the end.
Now, big bets on free-agent pitchers aren't usually positive value plays, and I wouldn't suggest any team should make a habit out of signing arms to $200 million contracts on the expectation that the upside will outweigh the downside most of the time. But if we're going to look at deals like this from a realistic perspective, we have to factor in the value of the times these contracts work, not just the probability that those outcomes will occur. And to a Red Sox team that is coming off consecutive miserable seasons, the potential reward for a quick rebound is enormous. The organization can undo a lot of the damage the past few seasons has done to its fan base -- and future revenue streams -- by righting the ship quickly.
An ace-like 2016 season from Price, in which the Red Sox return to playing in October, might actually be worth something like $50 million to the franchise. Price doesn't have to be an ace to justify his $31 million salary; $31 million factors in the risk his arm blows up and he doesn't provide any value at all.
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Ah. So you can't measure the value of a playoff spot by $-per-WAR in isolation. That seems like a useful thing to know.
For a long time, $-per-WAR was sold as the ONLY number that franchises had a right to use; if an org spent $45M when $/WAR said $40M, then Fangraphs panned the move. Education was needed, ya? Doin' right ain't got no end. :- ) Dr. D doesn't mean to Josey Wales it too much, but this a subject worth, um, closing out in the 9th inning.
That old $/WAR dogma is dying and will soon be buried, not just in Seattle but around the interwebs generally. SSI is awfully glad to see it so.
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The Mariner relevancy is in Felix Hernandez' contract. He's working for peanuts, a piddling $27M x 4 years, and there's even a team option in 2020 (when Bat, TJM and Dr. D will be long gone, it seems). Those Opening Day aircraft carriers are worth twice that. How would you like to sign Felix Hernandez, in this market, at that rate and length?
How sweeeeeeet it would be to see him and Iwakuma under the bright lights.
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Looks like 98 MPH standin' still. That, or a Boston pelican
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KKKKIMBREL
James said, "we know we gave up good players and we wish them well, but you've got to have a relief pitcher of Chapman's or Kimbrel's stature." That was the word he used, "stature," which in itself is quite the talking point.
DiPoto is zigging against this zag, going with an aging though bona fide 8th-inning man and one whale of a lot of faith in his (DiPoto's) own scouting ability. (If he had the choice, he and every other GM would be glad to deploy Billy Wagner. It isn't a top priority in Seattle.)
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More to the (SSI) point is that --- > the Sox gave up two top-100 prospects, a 2nd-3rd round draft pick,* and a useful fringe player for a player who will provide MINUS net value. You know what the argument was on Erikkk Bedard, based of course on $/WAR. So it's fascinating to see Cameron characterize the Craig Kimbrel trade as arguable on the Sox' behalf. Kimbrel is, from a WAR perspective, worth only about 2.0 WAR per year; rotation aces are worth 4.0 - 5.0 or more.
That wasn't hypocrisy and it wasn't bias. You're watching the sabertista world beginning to grasp the unmeasurables with Stars & Scrubs and with true pennant fights. ... Tomorrow's news today, babe :- )
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The Mariner relevancy to the bullpen arms escalation? We'd better hope that either (1) the Sox, Yankee$ etc are merely aping the latest World Series winner, or (2) Tony Zych is going to pull a Carson Smith real quick here.
Dr. D is optimistic as to the possibility of both. As to (1), riffle through the last twenty World Series winners and you'll find a lot of different roads that led to Rome.
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Another M's relevancy: a sincere attempt to WIN NOW, this year, today, means that (non-elite) prospects are indeed overrated and impact major leaguers are underrated. No, prospects aren't worth zero. ML stars are not worth infinity. But when you're buying a veteran you really want, go ahead and pay $1.10 on the dollar and get the piece you need.
To watch Jerry DiPoto slap down three no-name pitchers and reel in Adam Lind, despite the competition, that's the way you play this here game. Win or lose, that's the kinda thing I can root for. Just get in the game, wouldja? We fans can deal with the bad luck from there. I'm liking Mather and DiPoto a lot more than the guys who ran between them and Pat Gillick.
Enjoy,
Jeff