Does this mean that Saunders' defense is unacceptable in CF? And, if so, then he has to qualify as corner OFer in terms of hitting? If the answer is yes to both questions, then the M's OF situation for 2014 is more dire than I thought. I had been thinking that Saunders/Ackley would cover CF acceptably, with the M's then needing corner OFers to be added, unless Saunders can raise his OPS to a level considered acceptable for a corner OFer. Apparently my assumption about Saunders/Ackley being acceptable defensively in CF is incorrect. So Saunders and Ackley, in the ideal scenario, would be OFers #4 & #5? But both are LH. Help!!

....rode the M's OF's.
I can't help but think those numbers are somewhat dictated by abysmal pitching, outside of Felix and "Kuma. Man, it has been "In Coming!" for the most part. Saunders is fine wherever he plays. At least according to the Moe Eyeball UZR. He's better than fine in the corners. Ackley will eventually be decent in LF. Not sure he'll ever get to be good in CF. Ibanez is as bad as we think. Morse is nearly so. Chavez and Bay? Meh, at best.
You hit it on the nose here: If you didn't know better, you'd say terrible pitchers made the M's outfield look bad, and great ones made the M's outfield look good. Average ones made it look average.
We need another OF who can defend. We need Walker. Then those numbers won't look so bad.

I agree with Moe on this one. Players with a history of looking okay to good defensively (Chavez, Saunders, Guitierrez) have all looked terrible statistically this year. Sure it is possible that they have been terrible, but I think the data also indicates that the M's pitchers are getting hammered on flyballs.
To make my point, I would like to split the statistics for the M's pitchers between starters and relievers. First the starters, with last being best, that is lowest. M's starters are 14th in line drive rate and 4th in HR/FB rate. So the starters give up a lot of hard hit flyballs (as judged by HR/FB rate), but not a lot of line drives. Now the relievers. M's relievers are 3rd in line drive rate and 3rd in HR/FB rate. So the M's relievers strike out a lot of batters, but when the opponent makes contact they are really squaring up the ball.
But what about the BABIP numbers, the numbers that show the M's defense to suck? Well the starters are 11th in the AL, while the relievers are 2nd in the AL. So the fielders are well above average for the starting pitchers, and terrible for the relief pitchers.
What else do we know. Over the 4 years preceeding this season, Raul has been a -7.3 UZR/150 games in the OF, Michael Morse has been -17.2 UZR/150 games, Michael Saunders has been 0.5 UZR/150 games, and Endy Chavez has been 14.2 UZR/150 games. This year? Ibanez -21.3 UZR/150 games, Morse -25.3 UZR/150, Saunders -11.1 UZR/150, Chavez -17.6 UZR/150. [Please note that for Saunders and Chavez averaging all outfield positions together is problematic, but I don't see a better approach. Generally, Chavez has graded as above average in CF and outstanding in the corners, while Saunders is good in the corners and a little below average in CF. Interestingly, for players that do play multiple positions, the difference in the CF UZR/150 and the corner UZR/150 often approaches the positional adjustment of ~10 runs per season. Michael Saunders conforms to this observation.]
So Raul and Michael Morse have always been bad, but they are significantly worse this year. Michael Saunders has gone from league average give or take depending on whether he is in CF or a corner, to terrible in CF and Endy Chavez has gone from average to plus in CF to terrible.
Taken in total, I think the outfield defense is poor, but the pitchers are giving up an inordinate number of hard hit fly balls that make it look worse than it is.

It's really baffling to me why Ackley isn't in Tacoma now. There's nobody on the club that needs to play every day more than him. Heck, I would have him shagging fly balls during BP just to give him more looks at the ball coming off the bat from CF. He's pretty fast and he's a worker so I think he'll be fine out there...eventually.

Since positioning requires knowing what pitch is going to be thrown, or at least the intended sequence, so that the possibilities of the trajectory of hits is limited, it follows that if the pitcher is grossly missing spots, the positioning will be invalid. I believe that, simply, underlies the Ms OF problems. The number of times the CF has been in right center and had the ball hit to left center or vice versa has been beyond simply poor CF speed or incompetence by Brumley in OF positioning. Pitches that are supposed to be inside are getting centered or even on the other side of the plate. I just don't believe Saunders, in particular, is that bad.

My view ...
Are the results partially about pitching and partially about defense. Absolutley. That was true - is true - and will continue to be true.
I think what bothers me is that when it comes to defense, nobody (except perhaps me), is able to accept the premise that it is just as possible to have an "up" or "down" year defensively as it is offensively. If Raul Ibanez happens to have a great season (or half season) at the plate, nobody questions whether his hits are "real" or "suspect". But, defensive statistics are almost universally questioned based on ANY input that doesn't neatly match up with all previous data.
Michael Saunders had a HORRID first half, hitting under .600 for both May and June. Guess what. That exactly coincides with precisely when he was playing predominantly CF ... (and his defensive numbers were dreadful). He began playing a lot on the corners in July. His RF defensive numbers this year look fine. Is it concidence his bat heated up and his defense improved at the same time?
What I've seen through my years is players can have good and bad years defensively. If Josh Hamilton or Adam Dunn can hit 1000 one year and .670 the next, why is it impossible to believe that defensive performance also covers a range?
I think the real problem is the law of small numbers. The smaller the sample size, the more impact a few events have on any associated ratios. With hitters, you're talking 600-700 PAs a year. With pitchers, 200 innings is 600 outs, (and 800-900 baters faced for full season starters).
Defensively, things get a little less clear. Middle infielders get about 600 chances, but a superstar CF might actually make 400 POs, while some corners won't break 300.
The nature of the statistics is ... after you have removed the TTO results, total fielding plays is less than 2/3 of the total action. And that is divided among the 9 positions. And attributing a given hit to a specific defender is a judgement call rather than a clearly identifiable entity. REGARDLESS of the accuracy of your defensive system, by its very nature, I think defensive stats "should tend to be" *MORE* volatile than offenive or pitching stats. What I view as natural variance based on the Law of Small Numbers, others view as suspicion over the accuracy and efficacy of the systems.
This doesn't mean the systems are right - or that they shouldn't be questioned at all. But, when you have a multitude of years of data ALL converging on the same conclusions, like Morse sucks in the field, and Ibanez sucks in the field ... to me, those conclusions are inescapable.
When it comes to guys with short resumes, I think it absolutely appropriate to take the results with some caution. If you don't judge Justin Smoak based solely on his first 300 PAs in the majors as being a reasonable viewpoint, why is judging Michael Saunders on his first 300 innings playing CF valid?
The truth is, Saunders' CF UZR/150 numbers in CF are:
2010 - +14 .0 -- (108 innings)
2011 - +11.1 -- (376 innings)
2012 - (-5.3) -- (974 innings)
2013 - (-22.2) -- (552 innings)
One "could" read that as he's getting worse. There is a clear trend. One could also just note that a normal full season in the field is around 1300 innings, so he's barely beyond a full season of CF play at this point. *MY* assessment, looking at the data is that Saunders is probably a slightly below average CF, (the 2012 data being both the largest sample and pretty close to his career number, (which happens to be -5.8 over 2000 innings.
I would say that 2013 has been a down season for him defensively. But, I suspect his hitting (or lack thereof) can be viewed as evidence he was playing a little hurt ... or that his hitting was impacting his defense negatively. In any case, in judging what I would "expect", if one were to install him as a CF in 2014, I would start my projection at something around a -6.0 UZR.
As for Ackley. Defensively, I agree it would be better to have him learn in Tacoma. *BUT* ... he has nothing to learn in Tacoma hitting-wise. So, you have two variables. If you want him to work on solving his hitting, he HAS to stay up. If Ackley says *HE* is willing to learn CF in the Majors - knowing full well this may make him look foolish on a national stage until he figures it out - then given a team already out of the race - you leave him up. He cannot learn MLB pitchers in Tacoma. He CAN learn to read fly balls in the Majors. It's just painful - (and probably moreso for him than the fans).
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In the grand scheme of things ... yes, pitching can influence defensive results, (but it works the other way, too, guys and gals ... when Guti was chasing down everything, nobody can confince me that did not have a positive impact on the pitchers).
I think (based mostly on minor league results), we have competent, (but unexceptional), infield defense, whose biggest problem going forward will be errors. These will be more readily visible to fans ... but are actually less of an issue on run suppression than actual range factors.
I think the OF defense IS dreadfully bad. Ibanez and Morse have been awful for many years. Age is not working in favor of either guy in that regard.
I also think the catcher merry-go-round has almost certainly contributed to the horrible (and getting steadily worse) defensive results.
From years of watching the Braves, I can say with some feeling of expertise in this area, that it is CRITICAL that your fielding and pitching and catching ALL be on the same page in regards to strategy. Additionally, the more your pitching staff has the ABILITY to execute the game plan, the better you will make your defense look. With a bullpen full of guys running 4+ walk rates, it is CLEAR to me, (with only watching a couple of games all year), that there have been major issues with executing game plans from the mound.
Going forward, I do NOT want Morse back. I do not want Ibanez back. (I am still hoping beyond hope that Raul gets his 5 dingers and bows out).
I'm okay with Ackley continuing to do his on the job training in CF, (and expect he'll spend copious time in the off season continuing to work on OF routes). I'm more concerned with him learning to hit in the Majors, (which I still think is possible).
I think "some" of the issues improve when Zunino gets healthy and returns. I think "some" improves as the bullpen gets a little more experience. I think "some" improves as Ackley gets more reps. The only arena there is NOT reason to expect improvement is with Morse and Ibanez. Morse should get no better and (due to age), Ibanez is almost certain to get worse.
The good news for 2014 is that defense is the third of the baseball division of power that is historically easiest to completely turn around overnight with minimal changes. If Z can get a new DTFT for CF with Ackley and Saunders on the corners, (or if Ackley surprises me and eventually makes a quantum leap forward), then there could be a huge turn around in 2014. I do not think it possible for that to happen, however, if Morse and Ibanez are getting significant OF innings going forward.

Co-sign "Going forward, I do NOT want Morse back. I do not want Ibanez back. (I am still hoping beyond hope that Raul gets his 5 dingers and bows out)." Only exception for me is if Morales does not come back for DH, I think that the M's should consider signing Morse for DH.