1
Brooks physically reviews every pitch and reclassifies from FX data where needed. Yes, an actual human looks at every pitch. And we thought you were crazy, Doc!
LL has a(nother) great read up, this one on pitchers' velocities so far this spring. Usually you don't want to make tons of soup off this oyster, but there are a few things that grabbed me, at least.
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MIKE MONTGOMERY
The data shows that Montgomery's velo is up a good bit in the pen. On TV it hadn't looked that way too much, 'cause I thought he threw fairly hard last year .... :: hmmmmmm taps chin :::: Less' take a look. He averaged 91.3 last year, and he's got 94.7 this year based on a very few 21 fastballs.
Well, let's see. Here are the 2015 velocity graphs. Yeah, the 2015 Montgomery did touch 94 and 93 in most outings; that much we remembered right. And he wasn't straining to do it. Hence our memory of a kid with real good zip.
But yeah ... he also threw a lot of 90 fastballs in there too (though F/X undoubtedly had some cut fastballs in that grouping too). He did have more ho-hum fastballs than we remembered him having. This spring he's getting 94-95 again, but doing so every fastball. So your story is that a 2-IP Montgomery can throw his max fastball every time? Okay, we'll buy that. Dr. D stands corrected.
And as we noted, Montgomery had real 'elan to his curve and change this spring, has snapped them off with salesmanship and good late bite. Leaving us where?
Eyes slideways.
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JAMES PAXTON
Shows his velocity not yet at 2015 in-season levels. Down by a good 3 MPH, even relative to other pitchers on the gun.
*If he's not hurt* -- which it certainly doesn't look like it -- I can't think of a reason in the world that this specific pitcher, at this specific time, would see his velocity start fading. He is centrifugal, he is long, he was an EASY 98 MPH last year, and in his last Sept. 2015 start he was hitting 97 MPH effortlessly. Since when does an easy-velocity flamethrower have that kind of heat to end 2015, and then come back to start 2016 with his heat gone?
He doesn't.
Possible that some little mechanical adjustment cost him 1 MPH, though I doubt it. It sez at SSI, he just needs to build up, until proven differently. We're sure it won't be. Proven different, that is.
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TAIJUAN
We'd seen that his splitfinger was considerably sharper, for a game or two anyway. The data from Brooks / LL add the idea that his overhand curve is considerably sharper, for a game or two, anyway.
This is a young pitcher with greatness stamped on him, and his signs of evolution are by-the-book. Those who want to get jazzed up may do so with Dr. D's full blessing.
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KKKKARNIVORE
He has been so crisp, so soon, and we been so delighted. The data show his 4-seam rising (non-spinning*) fastball over 94 MPH and ... wait for it ... his average 2-seam sinker also over 94 MPH. Wowza. Dem's da big leagues. Fangraphs does not separate out leaderboards for "4 Seam Fastball Velocity" but 94.2 would be top five in the league. And this guy is not fundamentally a fastball pitcher.
The only little ask-erisk on this guy had been the fact that he'd been shut down late in 2015. Which makes it extra sweet that he's feeling his onions now.
Last guy the M's had like this, real young guy who threw a brisk 94 MPH with a reliable change and a reliable curve, that being Freddy Garcia. Anybody take Freddy's 2001 from Nate Karns? Drop Dead Fred was 18-6, 3.01 that year. Maybe he shouldn'a thrown 275 innings*, though.
BABVA,
Dr D
*counting pre- and post-season.
Comments
2
Human review of every pitch? Way cool.
Still not sure how you or I would be able to tell whether a pitcher were intending to max his velocity, turning his hand over, or intending to cut it, with football-spiral spin. The pitches work along a continuum. But yeah.
In any case, Montgomery's velocity data is a pleasant surprise. +1
3
. . . if it moves gloveside, it probably ain't a four-seamer.
4
As in Tango's little spin deflection chart (catcher's point of view, RHP) -
spin deflection
Like you said, if a fastball is to the right of the line, it's pretty safe to classify it as a cutter.
The overlapping areas underscore the idea, though, that it's hard to know when a pitcher is going for max velocity.
Another problem: he might spin it off his finger (like a football spiral) intending a "cut" fastball and the ball might not break - yet he loses the velocity while not getting the gloveside movement. Which is prone to become a "back leg special" :- )
5
Back in 2011, MLB.com had Mike Montgomery as the #3 Royal prospect overall, the #5 top left handed pitcher in minors, and the #19 overall prospect in the minors.
One of the descriptions that MLB.com had for Monty was - "Far from being a finesse lefty, Montgomery has a plus+ fastball and curve ball, and his change-up should be a plus offering as well once he learns to be consistent with it."
Over the past few years, Monty's fastball has been the pitch he has yet to be consistent with, and thus the lower velocity (I believe) so he can have better control.
Hopefully the fastball will be consistent enough this year.
6
When Servais says "he's got to learn what to do in the bullpen when he doesn't have command" I wonder if he means throw a couple "challenge" pitches. Hm. Left hand, at 95 MPH, they can usually get away with that.
7
Shannon Drayer has an edifying postgame. Curve ball starting to crackle, velocity well back towards midseason form and will go north from here, says Paxton.
Pretty well puts "PAID" to the tab on this one.
For those who just joined us: his previous DL stints have been dings here and there - a finger, a lat, an ankle. Paxton has problemos but a weak arm ain't one of 'em. And, no need to fret about March SP's who take the month to ramp up. Nothing unusual about that.
8
I guess it must be to cover for the "loss" of Kuma at the time....but now what? Is 100IP of Karns and 200IP of Miley better than 200IP of Karns and 2 shorter relievers? What about leverage?
I might be working the phones here...
9
Depth and innings. If recent history is any guide, the M's #6 & 7 starters are going to get a lot of work. Last year's #6 & 7 (Elias and Mongomery) logged almost 200 IP between them. Paxton or Karns + Montgomery >> Montgomery + Nuno. I mean, what are the odds Paxton breaks 100 IP this season? 50/50? 40/60 against? Greater than 120 innings? 30/70 against? Similar odds for Kuma breaking 150 IP and 180IP? That sixth starter is going to be valuable, especially for the six-ten weeks where he is the #4 or #5 starter.
11
Didn't Paxton come into camp like 20 pounds lighter or something like that? It's not a Montero-level diet, but may have some kind of impact on velo?
12
As a guy whose weight fluctuates :- ) it says here he'll find his level after adapting. Lot of times your strength is down a little not because you have less jiggling belly, but because you didn't carb up before your workload ... C (lower bench press personal record) is caused by B (not eating right that day) which is indirectly caused by A and A' (diet and weight loss)...
One theory. Personally not a fan of the idea that more pure bodyfat equals mechanical gain of power.
For sure it's an issue, though, the weight and nutrition and energy mix.
13
As Shandler BHQ fans know, the Forecaster projects player values its own way...based on its fundamentals.
They've updated their values for starting pitching in the AL. Every projected member of the five-man gets a value...positive or negative.
Seems logical that adding the five numbers together would give you a pretty good indication of the strength of starters in the division. Here's the cumulative values they assess in the AL West:
14 Rangers (without Darvish)
21 Angels
31 A's
50 Astros (without McCullers)
61 Mariners (slotting in Karns at #5)
Keeping Paxton (or Karns) and Montgomery on hand as substitutions seems like a great way to reinvorce our advantage.
(For the record, Cleveland leads the AL at 64)