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Fangraphs' playoff odds reports offer several ways of looking at the 2016 season:

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COIN FLIP MODE:  Here you simply assign a 50-50 chance for every game for every team.  Supposing that there are 15 different hydros with the Mariners' 25-man roster playing against each other the rest of the way.  What are any team's chances of winding up in the playoffs, given the current standings?  The M's chances come out to 21% based on this assumption.

The Red Sox are +9 over .500, the Blue Jays are +5 over .500, the Royals +4, the Tigers +2, the White Sox, Yankees and Mariners =0, the next best team Tampa at -9.  Two of those six teams would make it, assuming that no division leaders (such as the Orioles) tank badly from here.  I was a little surprised to see the M's are only -2.5 GB out of the Wild Card.  A little streak of 7-2 would put them back in the playoffs.

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SEASON TO DATE STATS MODE:  Uses 2016 stats, weighted towards recent performance, to project 62-38 or 57-43 or 51-49 or whatever chances for each individual game matchup the rest of the way.  The M's score 39% here, despite getting June "weighted" against them.

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FANGRAPHS MODE:  Uses Steamer and ZIPS preseason projections to assess each individual game the rest of the way.  The M's are 21% here too - in fact the same 21.4% exactly that they get in coin flip mode. 

Come to think of it, you would use Season To Date stats mode, wouldn't you?  If you did, the 39% chance is towards actually making the playoffs the last day, leaving us with much higher chances of duking it out with (say) the Blue Jays and Royals the last week or two.

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The M's are 37-37.  How many recent teams made the playoffs from such a position?  Well, the 2015 Rangers went into August with a sub-.500 record, losing on August 1st to go 50-53.

In 2014, the Royals went into late July with a 48-50 record, and went to the World Series.

In 2013, the Indians were 35-35 and later 52-48 before getting it together.  In fact they finished on an exciting 15-2 run (behind Kluber, Jimenez and Masterson) to win 92 games.

In 2012, the Tigers were 36-38 at this point in the season, and 39-42 a week later, before Scherzer, Verlander and Fister carried them to the Central Division and the World Series.

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Doesn't mean the M's are assured of getting hot.  Thought you might enjoy a few Series teams recently that took half a year to get it together.  I'm guessing that with five playoff teams per league, just about every year there will be one or two of them that had a dubious first half and a strong second half.

A team is going to eventually go on a good run when it meets certain preconditions, including (1) having a sturdy offense and (2) getting Quality Starts out of its rotation day after day.  DiPoto and Servais have the offense; they're scrambling madly to come up with the consistent starting pitching.  Wade LeBlanc might wind up making a nice contribution, and James Paxton turned out to be okay once he got a big league player development system behind him.  

Bill James once said wryly about Sandy Alderson, "it is a tremendous advantage in a pennant race to know what you are doing."  Joaquin Benoit makes a lot of money, but Edwin Diaz throws strikes.  We're betting that Scott Servais will notice this sooner than later.

Enjoy,

Dr D