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Saber Corner: "Signature Accomplishments"

Here there be .... some fun thought experiments

Posted by

3/8/19

A few years ago in Hey Bill:

You wrote once (I can't remember which book) about "signature excellence" (OK, I don't even remember if that was the term). Your gist, at least how I remember it, was that extraordinary short-term accomplishments by a player is a general predictor of excellence for that player. The classic example I remember you citing was Roger Clemens striking out 15 without walking anyone in 1984 (his rookie year). Along those lines... Are there similar markers for hitters? More specifically, what are the chances that JBJ's recent 7 game streak of 519/552/1185 means he really *has* figured something out?

Asked by: jgf704

Answered: 8/18/2015

The point of the "signature" article was that there are a very few achievements in baseball (such as striking out 15 batters in a game and walking no one) that are SO extraordinary that only very, very good players can achieve them. It may be counter-intuitive, but a no-hitter is not a signature accomplishment in that sense, but 15 strikeouts and no walks is, because an average pitcher can pitch a no-hitter once in a blue moon, but an average pitcher would NEVER have a game with 15 strikeouts and no walks. I would be surprised if Jackie's great GAME (5 extra base hits, 7 RBI) was a signature accomplishment in that sense, but the WEEK that he had might be; not sure. If you took 20 weak hitters who had careers (Hal Lanier, Bob Rodgers, Alfredo Griffin, John Bateman, Jim Hegan), I would be surprised if ANY of them ever had a week as good as JBJ had last week therefore, it is possible that that's a signature accomplishment. But also possible that it wasn't. . .

That point is fairly straightforward? Kobe Bryant could theoretically score 80 points; Jusuf Nurkic could not, in any universe. So sometimes a sample of 1 is enough. A delightfully controversial idea.

Marco Gonzales pitches tonight. I wonder if last season's 145:32 control ratio sidles up sideways to the idea of an accomplishment that a POOR starting pitcher could never accomplish. (And he's at it again: he's 11.6 / 2.6 / 0.0 in Arizona so far.)

And guess what else? The only velo we heard quoted on the change was 82 MPH. Dr. D (okay, Bat571) have been waiting with bated breath for the cambio to drop from the SERVICEABLE 86 mph to the DEADLY 82 mph that he used to have.

....

Mallex Smith swiped 40 bases last year; BaseballHQ projects him for 48 this year. Perhaps Dee Gordon will get his health and legs right, and we'll see what a ballclub looks like when it's got twin track stars at the 9-1 slots in its order.

....

Mitch Haniger walked 70 times last year, #12 in the American League; I wonder if that establishes some kind of floor for him or other.

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Edwin Encarnacion has 7 years' worth of 30 jacks and counting; I wonder if that means he's any good.

j/k ;- ) ;- )

....

Unrelatedly, I like where Felix' head is at. In a TV interview, he said he wants a GOOD season, not a GREAT one. Why? Because this is the last season of his contract and he wants to pitch four more years. Whereupon we realize that the Mariners, in a far different position with him now, have directed him to go out and live off his curveball, Aaron Sele-style.

I wish it were Tom Gordon-style, or Trevor Hoffman-style, using a single wipeout offspeed pitch for one inning, but I'll take what I can get...

BABVA,

Jeff

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