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When Dr. D was at the UW in the 1980's, the Psych department was in Metal Gear Solid mode on one agenda: People's memories can't be trusted. What they meant by that, of course, was that other peoples' memories can't be trusted. Dr. Loftus herself was only too happy to testify in court when the opportunity presented itself.
And Dr. D can confirm from personal experience this little anti-prosecution theorem, because it seemed such a vivid dream that Kyle Seager could hit more than .119. It turns out that he can't. And the entire M's roster has congealed into North and South Poles of good and bad hitting that completely contradicts his memory:
- Kyle Seager - 46 OPS+
- Adam Lind - 13 OPS+
- Nori Aoki, Franklin Gutierrez, Ketel Marte - worthless
Whereas:
- Leonys Martin - 123 OPS+
- Chris Iannetta - 163 OPS+
- Dae-Ho Lee - 165
In fact every single hitter on the M's roster is over 150 or below 50. Scan down this OPS+ column.
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By "every single" hitter we mean everybody except Sardinas, not shown, at 88. Also not shown, Dae-Ho Lee's 165 and Steve Clevenger's -40. And by "over 150 or below 50" we mean "really good" or "really bad." Refunds available on request.
What does the above chart mean, globally? That Bernie should share some votes with Hillary? Yes, and that Leonydas should share some seeing-eye grounders with Adam Lind. The first two weeks, the M's hitters have shown a concerning lack of interest in egalatarianism.
Jason Churchill did another very fine job assessing the component skills of the above players in their first two weeks. He finishes:
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The M’s are batting .226/.302/.396 through 11 games. Even if Iannetta and Martin become a little less randomly lucky, Lind, Seager and Cano will more than make up for that. There’s a great chance this year’s roster adds 10-plus points to last season’s .249 team average, and with that likely comes a league-average on-base percentage (.318 in AL in 2015) and perhaps an above-average slugging mark (.412 in AL in 2015, M’s finished at .411).
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The Think Tank can roll with the general sentiment here. Leonydas and Iannetta have been carrying Lind and Seager for two weeks ... two weeks not exactly being the Paleozoic Era as baseball periods go. The CF-C production will invert against the 1B-3B gains. Other than that, the M's are off to a cold-weather start ... which has left us with a 101 OPS+ and some UNtimely hitting.
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LEONYS MARTIN
The King of Spalding has 16 whiffs in 42 plate appearances, which if projected to 533 at-bats adds up to ::countsonfingers:: 203 strikeouts in part-time play. LOL. Mark Reynolds used to strike out 211 times in 600 plate appearances, hitting .198 despite 32 homers (which are not subject to BABIP). What the record for strikeouts is, for guys hitting 8 homers, you'll have to look up on your own time outside of class. It ain't 203.
It would be easy for Dr. D to declare victory here :- ) but ... the fact is that Leonydas' SwStr% and his OOZ% is not prohibitive. He's striking out way more than his swing-to-swing results deserve.
Also, that Carlos Peguero swing of his, much as Dr. D hates to admit it, is resulting in some screaming meemies. Mark Trumbo gives a superb interview rat cheer, in which he says he doesn't want to have to let the bat fly like he does, but the cut-down version of himself "isn't even a major league player."
It's true that a "praying mantis" swing, like Griffey's and Peguero's, is the only way some guys can get explosiveness and trueness to their swing arc. Interestingly, Churchill reports that the M's strategy is exactly this, to go ahead and grab a little "compensatory power" against Leonys' impending .219 batting average.
Also true that Leonys' career high in homers is 8, and that he averages 8 homers per 162 games. But that was true for Brett Gardner, who suddenly turned those homers from 8 to 17 when he hit his prime. Watching Leonydas, I don't rule out that he could hit .230 with 14 homers and 22 doubles this year. If he did that, then similar players would be --- > Stephen Drew, Garrett Jones, and a whole host of recent Zduriencik players :- ) such as Justin Smoak and Mike Zunino. This year, .220 hitters with power include Chris Iannetta minus the walks.
Point is, Justin Smoak, as a Gold Glove center fielder, would not constitute fair grounds for a refund on your season tix.
Leonys has also got 1 stolen base, not conducive to a season total of 36 like when he was younger. The idea isn't that we now expect Leonys Martin to collect 3 WAR. The idea is that if were were Boog Powell, we would go ahead and buy a chair for the apartment in Tacoma.
Enjoy,
Dr D
