=== Two Impact Players? ===
In the non-subscription portion of Jason's Prospect Insider article, his teaser suggests the M's would still like to add two more impact players.
Which reminds me of the cheap shot that writers used to take at the ca.-1990 Mariners -- they only need two players and they're right in it. Those two players being Christy Mathewson and Lou Gehrig. Ba-dump-bump.
This team certainly does need two players, both of them with lumber in their hands.
(Nice to see Jason's career blossoming, with the ESPN work and the subscription base. Always cool to see independent business, as opposed to having three or four choke-points control who gets jobs and who disseminates information. Even those who have tussled with PI in the past, should be delighted to see that Radio M's Minors is on the air loud-and-clear.)
SSI absolutely loves Zduriencik's stealth attack. It beats the tar out of the old days when they'd use Bob Finnigan to "manage" fans' expectations. This is one exec who is very secure in what he does.
.....
Here as in other places, the M's are rumored to be most interested in another star pitcher. Slap me silly. And with three aces, Ryan Rowland-Smith is a true championship-level #4, a quality tough guy a la Millwood in Atlanta, El Sid behind Doc, Cone and Darling, etc.
I get to chuckling at all the run prevention -- Hannahan at 1B, now Kotchman at 1B, Wilson's 60 OPS+ at SS, Chavez starting in LF, signalling a problem at second base because Lopez' glove is only middle-of-the-pack, etc.
But hey, :SHRUG:. At least it's fresh. If this team wants to try to run a 125 ERA+, well, I'll enjoy the ballclub for what it is.
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=== Chavez ===
MLB Trade Rumors says that Chavez is ahead of sked, should be 90% by March, etc.
I think that Michael Saunders renders Chavez obsolete and then some. But assuming they want a full year in AAA from Saunders, of course Chavez is a quality #4 OF.
Simply amazing that this guy might be ready by April. I thought they might have to amputate :-[ ... major credits for rehab effort...
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=== Aroldis Chapman ===
Perhaps the Angels aren't slam-dunks after all. The Jays have offered like $23m and are the frontrunners du jour, if the Yanks decide against.
This guy could conceivably be a Randy Johnson comp, but the makeup issues OUT OF CUBA are enough to make anybody squeamish.
We knew it was a roll of the dice. That's why he's $25m and not $125m. The kid is a 10-2 half season away from being one of those >$100m types. We'll see.
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=== Wash Me ===
Jarrod Washburn's best offer so far is reportedly 1 year, $5MM to play in a bandbox on artificial turf. Given that he wants to come back to Seattle so badly -- who wouldn't want to have a good season? -- it's interesting that the M's don't top that.
Pitching confidently in Safeco with Rick Adair by his side, Washburn in 2009 logged a 5.3 / 2.2 / 0.7 k/bb/hr line, with a 2.64 ERA. There's room for a whale of a lot of regression at 1/$5MM.
Must be tempting,
Dr D
I went to the USSM meet today. Z said a few pretty definitive things.
-Ackley is going to play at 2nd until he proves he can't.
-Griffey is going to be Ichiro's personal tickler. (In his words) Meaning Grif is a bench player.
-"We aren't done yet." Expect more moves.
I was there also, and thought it was a great event. One of the best yet, IMO.
Just for clarification, I took his Griffey comment mostly as a joke. It came on the heels of the anectode he told, and it didn't come across, to me at least, that he actually saw Jr. in that role. I know you're not saying he meant it literally, but it sounded like more of a joke to me.
- Z. and Blengino both sounded pretty high on Saunders to me, they seemed to speak very well about him. It didn't give the impression that they were ready to give up on him any time soon.
- They made clear multiple times that they were in search of RH bat, and aren't satisfied with the offense as-is.
All in all, Z was incredibly candid, funny, likable, smart and engaging. I can't imagine the team being in better hands.
I agree. Great event. Z is a humble guy, and I believe him when he says that the fans are the main reason he does what he does.
I think Grif is a bench player though. Z said it jokingly, but he also mentioned about Griffey "getting cut" over the offseason" and that hes a year older. It pretty much sounded like he wasn't counting on him as a regular, but he praised Griffey for his impact on the rest of the players.
Champ, why did I think of you as living across the Pacific? Must be your knowledge of the NPB :- )
Thrilled to hear about Ackley.
If I turn out to be right that Griffey is a bench bat only and not the starting DH...two things happen:
1) I win 500 c-points over at MC on a bet I had with phredmojo (LOL)
2) We add an impact bat to DH or LF (and that would shuffle Bradley to HD where he stays healthier).
Some buzz around regarding the Reds and specifically Harang as being a fit for the M's.
With the Reds rumored to be the winning team in the Chapman sweepstakes (30/5), they may be more receptive to a trade that unloads one of their high$ contracts in Arroyo and Harang. By trading Harang, the Reds get out from under a $2 mil 2011 option buyout.
With the starting lineup for the M's looking pretty set, the largest potential improvements seem to lie in upgrading the SP, in this case switching out Fister for Harang. I would be down for another Cliff Lee-type-ish trade, the quality of the 'spects depending on the $ the reds would kick in.
Continuing our super-fun comparisons with the 2001 team, I see Harang potentially as this team's Aaron Sele. Z did say that he was looking for 2 SP, right? Fun stuff :)
Looks like his pitcher family is the "here it is, hit it (FAR!!!!!)" class...Robin Roberts if Robin Roberts sucksed. Oops.
Not a fan of Harang at all. That toasty 1.5 HR/9 won't be solved by Safeco.
Agree with you, Matt, that many of of the shots hit off Harang are "no-doubters." But there are a few pretty comical ones as well:
http://www.hittrackeronline.com/detail.php?id=2009_3094&type=pitcher&sor...
Just sort by distance and check the HRs hit by Counsell and Reynolds. Anyway, of the five "Just-enough" shots hit off Harang, four of them were hit at GAB. I would think that Harang is exactly the kind of pitcher who would stand to greatly benefit from pitching in the Safe.
...was a frozen rope that never got more than 62 feet off the ground. In safeco that's a triple.
The Harang rumors start to look more interesting. ...what division does Harang play in? Does Capt Jack know anything about 'im?
But you knew that I assume. :)
I really dislike Harang's type of pitcher and don't think he's good enough to merit trading high valued prospects for.
Harang's CAREER LD% is 21.3 (!) and his CAREER GB/FB is 0.84...and his average HR velo is significantly abvoe the league averages as well. He gets hit HARD when he gets hit.
I used to live in Japan, but that was a while back. More recently I'd work there during the summers.
I've pretty much deferred to Ice and Naka-san on the NPB though.. I don't think I've written a scouting report on an NPB player in 3 years.
Take a low BB, high FB pitcher and chances are they'll benefit from Safeco.
Harang's Career Hr/FB% is 11%, which is pretty much dead average. His 1.22 HR/9 career is inflated due to a high FB% in a homerdome. His command is still intact.
What is also fascinating about Harang is that he has a career reverse platoon split, but his K/BB is better vs RHBs (he give up more XBHs and a higher BABIP to RHs).
As for the negatives, Harang is no longer the star pitcher he was in 2006 and 2007. A 1mph decline in slider velocity has caused his SwS% to drop 2 percentage points and a rise in CT%. After having positive value over his entire career, its been -1 run per 100 pitches over the last couple years. The slider is his only real offspeed weapon so that has likely been key to his decline.
Harang has a high career LD% against and WILL suffer from the move to the AL. Expect a high 6ish K/9.
All that said, even in the past 2 years hes been a 4.10 FIP-ish guy in a bandbox in the NL. Whatever Nl to AL penalty he has should be offset largely by the defense and park. Overall hes very Kevin Millwood-ish, which isn't that bad of a thing. I wouldn't overpay, but if the Reds want Ian Snell for him and are willing to throw in a lot of cash it could be a really solid move.
rather have Washburn back at 1X6 than see if Harang can make the NL-AL transition AND give up Snell AND pay Harang's 12.5 million dollar salary. If the reds wanted to give up Harang for basically free, then I would think about it, but I would be willing to bet that Washburn out performs Harang with Seattle in 2010.
The great thing about picking up a Washburn or Sheets for nothing other than moolah is that it keeps the no #5's rotation intact:
Felix (ACE)
Lee (ACE)
RRS (#3 upside, #4 downside)
Snell (#1b/2 upside, #4 downside)
Wash/Sheets/Harang in a deal that does not include Snell (#3/4)
It will be quite an awesome sight to see a Rotation that doesn't carry a single picthers who's DOWNSIDE isn't even as low as a #5! A rotation like that could be historical, and could really start some bug synergy's (It has been 3 turns throught he rotation since a start has lost, or it has been 12 straight starts allowing 4 or fewer runs, etc)
Harang is fine as long as we don;t give up Snell. Although I still think Wash would be cheaper and perform just as well if not better. In fact I would rather have Washburn than Sheets as well (Injury risk, higher salary more likely, wants 2 years, doesn't want to come north anyways)
I think Snell has considerably worse downside than you do...but Fister does not. So if Snell tanks, we have other options and we still get to keep Snell's upside around in case he doesn't tank.
I'd rather just sign Washburn than trade for Harang and his meteoric LD% and horrid FB tendencies and high BABIP.
SI's Jon Heyman reports that Ms are still looking for a RH bat (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/jon_heyman/01/11/heyman.pu...) and they are considering Ryan Garko, who was nontendered by the Giants.
Looks pretty solid against lefties (.313/.392/.495; actually that's better than solid), so he could be part of a platoon/rotation with Kotchman or Carp.
Snell will cost you $4.3mil in '10 though. I'd rather trade him for someone more reliable and sign someone like Washburn (who is a great fit for the park and OF D) at $5.5mil on a one year deal.
Say the Reds value Snell enough to consider him an asset in the deal. Ian Snell for Harang +$5.5mil in '10 and $2.5mil in '11(option year almost certainly voided).
Theres room in the budget still to add Seth Smith, Washburn, and Garko. Then you can call it an offseason. You've got a Felix-Lee-Harang-Washburn-RRS rotation with a 100 OPS+ offense and the best defense in baseball. Thats my dream world at least..
He makes a ton of sense, but Ms actually really need a bat that can mash RHs more than LHs.
Sign Garko if he comes cheap, but you still need a LF that can mash righties.
Dead Cat's Bounce has a great write-up about the new M's catcher, Josh Bard:
http://deadcatsbounce.blogspot.com/2009/12/mariners-fans-look-out-for-jo...
As a switch hitter, he OPS against LHP better than RHP (.771 vs. .695), and has had some success against some tough pitchers:
Haren - .364/.417/.636 in 11 ABs, Webb - .333/.458/.500 in 18 ABs, Old Bonderman - .400/.400/.700, Penny - .533/.611/.667 in 15 ABs, Felix - .286/.444/.429 in 7 ABs, and Lincecum - .333/.500/.667 in 9 ABs!
Bard only turns 32 in March. Huh.
Thats a great catch on his CS%.
Bard has also been more unlucky than bad offensively the past 2 years. 270/.340/.400 would make him the best catcher in our system by a good margin.