Gutierrez' spot price on the world oil market is volatile :- ) but at the moment, D-O-V pegs him as the second coming of Mike Cameron. Mike is / was a fine player, though perhaps not the "secret superstar" that sabes tout him as.
If Gutierrez is a second Mike Cameron, then he will provide $12-14M of value to the M's over the next several years, while earning chump change. That is, of course, the kind of player you win a pennant with.
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As Taro has pointed out, Gutierrez has shown intriguing signs of growth this year. His PX isn't up as such, but his 420-foot blasts have flashed the latent 30-homer power that may emerge.
Tell you something that's verrrrrrry encouraging: Gutierrez can no longer be suckered by the low-away slider. Check Fangraphs and you'll find that his run values on the slider pitch used to be his Achilles' heel. Suddenly, this year, he's totally fine with it. And then check the % of sliders that he gets thrown this year.
This is also known as The Jay Buhner Path To 100 RBI. Jay became a legit #5 hitter precisely when he started checking his swing on the low-away slider.
Am sure if you think about it, you'll remember the same on Franklin. A few months back, it became very tough to get Franklin to chase the sucker pitch low and away.
So the pitch recognition is getting better, quickly. Guti fans need not give up hope on his becoming a two-way impact player.
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For next year, I'm guessing that Gutierrez and Lopez will earn LOOSELY comparable "net salary/WAR" profits, after you adjust for Safeco making CF defense look good.
As originally suspected, Gutierrez probably won't be a two-way impact player, but he will be a very fine player making chump change. That's cool.
And there's still some chance (25% ?) of his becoming a two-way star in the bigs.
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=== SIZZLERS ===
Two Mariners are plus hitters the last 30 days: Ichiro and Josh Wilson. Josh is, of course, a lifetime .209 hitter* who's getting his 15 minutes of fame. Ichiro is a bit less of a flash in the pan.
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It's one thing to have a young player come up, struggle, and give you $5M worth of performance for $437,000. Yes, you profited, but the kid didn't exactly help you take down the Angels.
It is a completely different thing when you have a quality ML player who is wayyyyyyyy underpaid.
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Two more have had good EYES the last 30 days: Griffey and Johnson.
Rob Johnson, to my considerable surprise, has pretty much continued his 1.00 EYE skill, and today he lined two more hard hits. The man is standing up there refusing to swing at a ball, and putting his sizeable carcass all over the pitch when it's a strike. Somebody slap me.
If his defense is plus, and most experts tell you it is, then he offers the prospect of a surprisingly solid Dan Wilson-ish C next season, again at six (not seven) figures salary.
Looks like the Mariners have $5-10M net performance profits locked in for three quality ML players: those at 2B, CF, and C. Russ Branyan may give them a fourth.
BABVA,
Dr D
Gutz is a much better overall player than Lopez. Its mostly thanks to his world-class defense at a premium position, but Gutz is already a better hitter as well and comes with more offensive upside.
But ya, Gutz and Lopez give the Ms some cheap guys to build around. If the Ms lock Gut up this offseason they may end up with one of the biggest bargain contracts in baseball.
...if I were Z, I'd go ahead and throw Guti a 5 year contract right now. No QA. 5 years, 25 mil or something like that (3 mil, 4, 5, 6, 7). He'd jump all over that.
I think he'd jump over that too..and that would make him a rediculous bargain.
5-6 years at $4-5mil a year and thats almost a Longoria type robbery.
They give their kids long term job security, they make them feel wanted and important ot the team, and they bank WAPR/$ winnings at the same time...it would be stupid NOT to lock up Guti this offseason IMHO.
But, in *predicting* 2010-11, I'm wondering if it isn't Lopez more likely to make large strides. The age-26-with-experience syndrome.
Of course, Gutierrez is exactly the kind of resource you want to build a pennantwinner around, and he takes CF off your Yahtzee card. 450-foot homer for Capt Jack, no doubts there.
I don't understand why people are so ready to give up on Jose Lopez. Lopez anhd Guti are UNTOUCHABLE on my roster right now...young, talented, and cheap. No reason to even consider moving either of them.
Keep Lopez. Even if he does not improve any more, he is valuable. We complain that Safeco eats up RH hitters. Lopez does not seem to be affected by Safeco.
He may actually become a RH Safeco hitter. He's starting to show signs of deliberately hitting those 2-0 pitches over the mini-scoreboard.
CA - Johnson -- The 10/10 eye from July vanished, (4/9 for August). But, he was never "likely" to carry a 120 isolated walk rate, (like July). The plus-plus here is this. His July .810 OPS was phantom, (pretty obvious at the time). But, his August OPS (.696), could easily be his new BOTTOM end. .267/.313/.383/.696 -- 1-HR, 4-2B. There's NOTHING in those August numbers that indicates he was lucky in any way, (BABIP = .300). The big thing here is that Johnson, as a rookie, had a HORRID May (.405 OPS) and June (.541 OPS). If he had slumped BACK to a .600 OPS in August, then you might right off July as just a random hot streak. But a catcher who pitchers LOVE that can carry a .700 - .730 OPS is a major plus to any lineup. When adjusting for his "rookiness", his aggregate offensive line for the season is likely going to undersell his 'true' offensive competence by anywhere from 50 to 100 points. One HAS to remember he's still only 25, and still only has about 300 major league PAs under his belt. Based on his profile so far, there is every reason to believe he is ALREADY a .700 hitter, and also plenty of reason to believe he can improve on that.
1B - Branyan -- the injury may be a blessing, suppressing his salary demands, and also potentially removing the leverage to land a multi-year deal. A 1-year with a nice option wouldn't be bad at all, (especially with Ackley in the wings, hoping for a 2011 arrival).
2B - Lopez -- FINALLY coming into his own in 2009. Like Johnson, his season numbers look much worse due to two horrid months (.683 April and .587 May). But given Lopez himself identified WHY he's hitting the ball so much better since returning from his homeland, it is VERY likely the gains are long-term. His eventual HR totals have been discussed in length. But, it's not JUST about HRs. The new club, no longer preaching contact over power is finally getting the inate power shown in the minors to be realized. Don't believe me?
2006 - .123 ISO
2007 - .103 ISO
2008 - .146 ISO
2009 - .192 ISO
But, the .192 actually UNDERSELLS the change for Lopez since ADAPTING. What about his ISO numbers per month during 2009?
April - .120 ISO
May - .125 ISO
June - .263 ISO
July - .217 ISO
Aug - .234 ISO
He *only* posted a .789 OPS during August. But that was while carrying a .248 BABIP. So, when do you discount multiple years of performance and accept a 3-month "abberation" as likely more accurate than the previous data? When there is a REASON for the change. Me? I don't CARE that he hit 6 HRs in August, (a 36-HR pace). Sure, it could be abberant. But, when he goes 5,4,6 in monthly HRs AFTER coming back and saying he's changed his approach, and after he's sustained a .217 (or better) Isolated Power rate for 3 months, then I'm willing to consider the concept that the change is permanent. His 2nd half numbers show an .836 OPS. Okay, maybe that is over his "true" level. But the .290/.319/.517 line shows a guy who has simply added a BUNCH of power to a previously 'meh' batting line. If the .290 average were pushed by a .340 BABIP I'd be first among the skeptics. But his .290 average is coming off a .285 BABIP, (an imminently maintainable BABIP). For THESE eyes, the sequence here SCREAMS of legitimate LONG TERM improvement from a still young player. His June+ spike in performance seems EVERY bit as real and sustainable as Guttierez'.
CF - Guttierez -- The star of June and July has swooned badly in August. After posting .879 and .943 lines that turned him into a Seattle "must have" for the future, his .651 in August should temper those enthusiasms. In an odd case of synchronicity, at this moment Gutz has a .235 secondary average, (everything positive, excluding singles), while Lopez sits at .233. The disturbing thing FOR ME is that the 200 point ISO that he carried in June and July completely vanished in August, (127), and for the season, his .135 ISO is identical to his 2008 ISO. His speed and spray-type bat are both helping keep his BABIP very high, but his hitting has really hit an awful patch in August, (32 Ks during the month - only 20 during May). He's still walking, (10 walks in August, tieing his May high), but he can't really afford to fan at a 162 per season pace unless he starts smacking 7 HRs a month. Hopefully, this is just a normal slump. But it certainly puts a crimp in my belief that he had rediscovered his original 200-ish ISO power from 2006.
The comparison between Gutz and Lopez is especially important, because it demonstrates perhaps the single largest problem with projecting future performance for young players ... CONSISTENCY. Players get BETTER because they learn something, or improve a skill. But, players ALSO can simply have hot streaks and cold spells. It is difficult in the extreme to distinguish between the two quickly. Only time can tell how CONSISTENT a player is going to be. It thus becomes very easy to believe every hot streak is (either) a permanent gain or a meaningless abberation. At this point, I'm thinking Lopez may actually be the BETTER hitter going forward, (even though I prefer the Gutz hitter profile in general terms). I believe both are capable of sustaining .800 ... but since Lopez' has a REASON for his gain, while Gutz has no corresponding "why" to explain the good months, for me Lopez is actually the safer bet to hit .800 next season. What Gutz CAN do has been shown. What is not clear (yet), at least to me, is what the fluctuation pattern for Gutz is going to end up being.
My sense of Gutz at the moment is that going foward, he is more likely to remain feast or famine, mostly based on him simply missing far more pitches when he's scuffling.
But, as Doc notes ... this is not a bad quartet of guys to build on, (make that 5 with Ichiro). The questions ahead are focused on the other 4 slots ... 3B, LF, SS and DH.
On my keeper list for 2010 would be Felix Hernandez (wel duh), David Aardsma, Michael Saunders (I like smart, fast, defensively gifted 4th outfielders with upside), and Dustin Ackley too. As well as Doug Fister, Ryan Rowland-Smith and Ichiro.