=== April 1, 2011 to July 6, 2011 ===
Vargas pitched very well, notching a 3.49 ERA for the first two-thirds of the season.
Though Dr. D remained unconvinced, many (most?) SSI cave-dwellers believed that he was being stubborn. Comparisons to Jimmy Key, Jamie Moyer and similar finesse aces were finding their level.
Dr. D didn't particularly object. Vargas is a soft-tosser who stays around Ron Shandler's magic 5.6 strikeout line -- the line at which soft-tossers can be not only solid pitchers, but actually stars. Think Brad Radke.
Vargas has good finesse-pitcher stuff; he can paint with his fastball, and his 11-inch-swerving change is one of baseball's best weapons.
Vargas finished this period with a dazzling run -- 3 complete-game shutouts in 6 games (!!) and sandwiched around them, he had good starts of 7, 7, 6, and 8 innings.
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=== July 14, 2011 ===
On this date in baseball history, Jason Vargas ran out of steam on his 2012 season.
Having thrown 55 innings in his last 7 starts -- that's a 270-inning pace -- Vargas got smoked for 3 home runs by the Rangers.
He threw four straight lousy starts, then a coupla decent ones ... then gave up 8 and 9 earned runs in short order, bloating his ERA to 4.59.
The Seattle blog-o-sphere shifted the conversation over into the "non-tender" fast lane.
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During this period, Vargas experimented with a "Jim Kaat" throwing motion -- a very short step, a purely arm throw, about 84 mph. He slid the EQ bar all the way to "precision." It didn't work.
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There had been no cause for panic. The year before, in 2010, little Jason had hit the wall just a couple of weeks later. His last eight starts in 2010 had offered similarly grisly results, with 5 bashings in 8 games and strikeouts as rare as Halley's comet.
2011's collapse occurred earlier, of course, because of the 7-game streak of complete games.*
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=== Sept. 8, 2011 ===
Jason Vargas went to the Erik Bedard delivery. Jeff Sullivan was on it like a duck on popcorn, posting this outstanding analysis the next day.
Wednesday, in Vargas' second start, he rolled out the Erikkk delivery not against the Royals, but against the Yankees. He was death on a stick.
Not only did he throw a 3-hitter with many, many strikeouts, but his fastball had evolved from "gimp" to "great."
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Study Vargas' career pitch type values and you'll see that his fastball has always been a lousy pitch for him.
- Rookie year 2005 -- 89.0 mph, +0.03 run value
- 2006-11 -- 86-87 mph, -0.50 run value
But on Wednesday night, Vargas' fastball was a good 88.5 mph average, hitting 90 mph routinely in the early going. His run value was +1.45 (!) and that is despite throwing the pitch 68% of the time. Here, let's chart that:
- 45% and -0.41 = Vargas' FB frequency and results, 2011
- 60% and 0.00 = AL average
- 68% and +1.50 = Vargas, Wednesday night -- against the Yankees!
Jason Vargas is a soft-tosser with excellent nibbliness and an outstanding changeup -- he is a pitcher who works around his lack of a fastball. If the Erikkk motion has suddenly armed him with a weaponly fastball, then that's news.
If you review Vargas' pitch type values, over his career, then you'll see why a +0.00 fastball would be so transformative for him.
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