OK...We spent 2 months and all agreed we had no LF and no 4th OF...and we fixed those issues. Something fairly good is happening in LF. Don't know if it will continue.
We've also found out we have no DH, 2B and 3B. Well actually we have one of those....just depends on where Kennedy plays. (I'm not including SS here...I'll give a team a no hit gread D SS. Plenty of teams have won with that set up. I've also not included catcher because I don't believe we're doing anything but playing Olivo. We could possible see a Bard call up but I don't thinnk we're seeing anythig but a lot of Olivo, who seems to be in tune with his starters).
We absolutely have one of the parts we need (the 2nd two months in the Beane quote) in Ackley. That means Kennedy moves to one of the other spots. So....We need a 3B or DH.
I think Carp can come up and OPS+ 100+ right now.
So...play Kennedy for figgins and here we go.
But I would explore a minor league guy for a rent-a-bonker.
Heading into 2011, the Mariners had one six showing in their rotation. They left that one down.
They tossed four dice in the cup, clamped a palm over, rattled the dice, and threw them on the table. The result is pictured, to the left.
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=== Now THAT'S Stars & Scrubs ===
Fangraphs' dollar value for pitchers is based off FIP, a theoretical stat meant to predict the future. WAR and VALUE are not measuring actual runs gained and lost. So the below chart is probably understating the situation.
Still, pro-rated, here is what the M's five best players have earned in 2011, if you assume FIP and if you pro-rate full season:
- $28m = Felix
- $22m = Pineda (will be $25+ after tonight)
- $17m = Vargas
- $13m = Fister
- $19m = Smoak
- $103m = free agent value, top 5 players
The other 20 players are, I believe, below replacement level as a group -- per Fangraphs theory you should be able to trade the other 20 players for the Rainiers,* and improve your team in doing so.
Ichiro has accrued 51 WAR in the last 10 years, including another 5 WAR last year. He's minus value early in the season, as is often the case with him. But you can pencil him in for star production the last four months.
Bedard is now up to speed, and three times in the past has been a $20m pitcher, prorated value. You've got a $100, $110m rotation you're rolling out there, you've got Smoak, you've got Ichiro.
You've got a solid $120M in value in your top seven players ... and you've got some work to do. No GM job is easier than finding players better than the ones the Mariners had in 2010 and in April 2011.
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The whole idea of Stars & Scrubs is that the scrubs can be improved, in-season. Pat Gillick's teams can't be tweaked in-season. This one can.
Billy Beane says, "you play two months to see what you have, two months getting what you need, and two months going to war." Right now, the Mariners are doing exactly that.
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=== Agility, Dept. ===
Supposing that the Mariners' budget was $170M, and that they had just purchased five All-Star starters, at an average salary of $20M? Would you be punting 2011 then?
"No Cheering In The Press Box" is fine as far as it goes, but bloggers aren't in the press box. And the script has changed. Let's have the agility to adapt to an emerging script.
You expect the manager to be agile in-season, right?, and to make roster changes if Milton Bradley isn't working out? How come bloggers and beat writers don't have to make in-season assessments and improvements? :- )
Clamor not for the Mariners to punt. Clamor for them to get some offense in here ASAP. Otherwise you're stuck in the past, the February 2011 past.
It's easy to picture Fister and Vargas in WWII combat helmets, grimy and dirty, heroically holding the position. You don't sell them out. You owe them food, medkits, and reinforcements - ASAP.
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Stow the pre-season "punt" script. This isn't a ballclub you punt. Too much star power and too much opportunity for improvement.
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Comments
I'd fight in your platoon any day, Doc...I hope the Ms play to win the way you would.
Thanks, man. LOL.
I, for one, have zero doubts about Jack Zduriencik's and Eric Wedge's thirst for battle... as to their commanding officers, the situation is a bit less clear...
As Baker pointed out in Baker Live!, "Chuck Armstrong has been here a quarter century" and his job certainly has never been affected by wins and losses...
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You've got some men in uniform who leave it all on the battlefield, but they with some civilian oversight that isn't convinced we're in the right war...
Lo and behold, he got 80+ games at third in 2009. With a solid range factor and reasonable errors. Wouldn't that be the vienershnitzel - Ackley, LRod and Kennedy around the infield.
Just noodlin' here Moe... any guesses, how much of Figgins' salary they could shed?
Hard single to LCF, crushed double to LCF, crushed warning track fly out to LCF. LOL So both Peguero and Wilson have some pop and the ability to occasionally hit the ball. Making them a big upgrade over the last 4 weeks of Bradley.
...I thought Pineda was wilder than usual today...but he's busting out a can of whoop-tail ANYWAY...all on that supposedly "not good enough for the big leagues yet" secondary pitch.
In this game, the slider was setting up the fastball, not the other way around. Right from the first inning and the first batter.
cpoints
With a ballclub that is on a rocket ride up, I'm glad to go through the growing pains when there is potential you're chasing.
Wilson looks as solid as advertised, and am forced to admit that Carlos "80% Swing" Peguero is looking MUCH better.
Megaprops for the M's, eating that Everett contract. Such a deal.
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Somebody should figure out how many parks Wilson's ball was out of. I think HitTracker overlays the park outlines, or something...
I think we've fixed one of the holes with Wilson/Peguero...and I also think that Gutierrez looked good last night despite the outs...good lively swing, nice weight transfer, good eye...he just needs to get his timing perfect and the hits will start falling for him...so that's two holes plugged. Three if you count OF4. We're not going to plug C or 3B...we just have to hope they contribute from time to time. SS may be improving just because Ryan has looked better of late...I don't say he's gonna suddenly hit .290, but he might suddenly hit .260...he's hit a lot of hard grounders and liners right at people leading up to his mini-hot-streak he's got going now. So...dare I hope he contributes?
And then of course you have Ackley waiting in the wings...
Trade for a real DH and use Kennedy at 3B sometimes and that team can fight for the world series NOW.
Not much I think. I imagine IF a Figgins deal could be worked out (a huge if) that the M's would have to swallow a bunch of the change he is due. ($9M this year...then 9m and 8M in the years following. finally a $9M option in '14...all according to Cots)
We're paying $9M for a RLP. Beyond that he seems to have an eroding set of skills. While his BABIP is way low (.234) it diesn't seem to be due to a run of bad luck. His LD% is 16.3, a career low. Since his 2007 season, where he had a LD% of 26.4, he has seen a quite steady decline: 23.8, 23.9, 20.8, 16.3. His inability to hit it hard this year certainly contributtes to the BABIP, just as his high LD% in '07 contributed to his outlier BABIP that year.
Figgins walk rate is at a career low, as is his BB/K rate. He is also swinging at a career high number of pitches outside the zone.
I wondered if pitchers were just shrugging off the thought that he MIGHT hurt them and were just challenging him more. However, it looks like that isn't the case. He's seeing basically the same mix of pitches (FB's are down 25 and SL's are up about 2%) at about the same strike rate (60.4% of the picthes he has seen this year are strikes vs. a 60.5% career rate).
Beyond that, his UZR150 is down compared to '08-'09 (the last 2 years he was a fulltime 3B)...and his error rate is up. So, he's getting to fewer balls and booting more of the ones he gets to.
Turn him over. He's done on this side! He just isn't very good. We're he a glove-ish SS, you could swallow the lack of production...not at 3B.
So, he doesn't have any value at 3B and doesn't field well at 2B. He palatable as a utility-type guy. But nobody pays that guy $9M a year.
B-R lists Figgins as the #716 hitter of all time. I'm not buying it. Interestingly, though, he is just 3 spots behind Lou Pinella. How do you think Sweet Lou would have handled Figgins snit last year? Would Lou have moved him down in the line-up?
This wasn't quite a Silva-type of disasterous signing, but it was dang close. The only way you peddle Figgins now, is when you give up the young, cheap, future star with him. Take your pick which future star that is...but to dump Figgins we have to WAY sweeten the pot.
I long for the good old days of Jose Lopez.
moe
Apologies for the 4 or 5 typos! I hate that.
His fastballs are down 2%...not 25.
Figgins *needs* to go on some steroids.
Where can I go to view Wilson's AB's from last night?
moe
Ah, man, that gave me a laugh out loud...
Lesson learned Grumpy, no banjo hitters in Safeco? Or not?