Q. Why would an otherwise stable individual sit and type 5,000 words about a minor leaguer who is playing 3,000 miles away?
A. You'll remember our year-long retirement in 2008. Send fan mail, and hate mail, to the mighty Klat. For better or worse, their Frankenweenie resurrection has us once more deep-sea diving on esoteric M's issues. And don't think we don't love youse amigos for red-circling the mistakes. Considering the way the Safeco losses are piling up, even the Frankenweenie voltage might not get us up off the slab if it weren't for youse cyber-friends whose comments are usually more interesting than the original posts themselves.
.
Q. What are the facts here? What are the "givens" of the investigation, or at least, what do you believe you know about Stefen Romero?
A. Romero might be forgotten a year from now, or might be headed toward AL rookie of the year; either is possible. But right now we'll stipulate the following:
(1) Stefen Romero's hands and wrists -- and therefore his swing generally -- are certifiably special, special with a capital S. This is confirmed by three things: internet video, Pedro Grifol, and his results.
(2) His wonderful swing, times his stunning results in new and unfamiliar leagues, puts him at or near the place where Nick Franklin was, when Franklin destroyed A baseball. You'll remember that Nicky's swing, times results, made him an SSI Best Bet as low-minors prospects go. I'd be about 80%, 90% prepared to comp Romero to Franklin as it pertains to Franklin in August of 2010.
If you just joined us, wrrrrriiisssts allow a hitter to keep the bat back, read curve ball, and then SNNNAAAPPPP the bat through with authority. Wrists cover the front of the strike zone and the back of the strike zone. Edgar, Chris Snelling, Henry Aaron.
(3) The scouts, watching him day-in day-out, speak of him as a guy who could be an Organizational #1 Prospect with respect to position players. Dr. D takes this seriously. Scouts tend to be able to identify players who are as men among boys. They tell you, wow, this guy can really barrel it up. This is what they said about Dustin Ackley (that's a compliment).
(4) Romero's template is that of Freakish ML Third Baseman, a big strong guy who moves lightly and as if he were a smaller man. Handles the bat like a toothpick.
.
Q. Leading us to .... who?, as the ML prototypes?
A. If we didn't know better, we'd actually say that Romero moves and swings, like Evan Longoria and Troy Tulowitzki. His position, early performance, and skill set isn't necessarily imcompatible with theirs either.
Comparing Tulowitzki's college, low-minors, and AA results, Romero's don't look wildly inconsistent. It's not a stretch to imagine Tulowitzki, given exactly Romero's background, broken arm, lesser advantages in collegiate development, etc etc, putting up statlines somewhat similar to Romero's.
Go check the vids on those two, Longoria and Tulo, and you'll see them demonstrating the extreme boundaries of this FML3B template, sharing in common with Stefen Romero that they:
Where Romero lands within this template -- whether he turns out to be 10% or 50% or 90% of Longoria -- it will be our pleasure to observe over the next year or two.
.
Cheers,
Jeff
I knew an old grizzled baseball watcher like you wouldn't miss the Aaron link.
I will read all Doc's posts. I will read all Doc's posts. I will read all Doc's posts. I will read all Doc's posts. I will read all Doc's posts....before I respond. :)
old-grizzled moe
Honest question here. Or should I say questions? If Romero really is the man among boys that you suggest he is, why did the M's wait until the 12th round to nab him? Why did other major league teams let him drop out of the first ten rounds? There had to have been a bigger flaw than "weak front side/gliding" that knocked him down so far.
Does anyone have any insight into this?
In two years with the Beavers, he.307 in 103 games, all starts, while posting 28 doubles, four triples and 18 home runs. He drove in 92 runs and was 6-for-7 in stolen base attempts.
Nice. Not earth shattering.
He had a year at a JC, hitting over .400.
In high school he was a basketball player, too. He certainly is athletic.
Summer of '09 he hit .235 in the Cape Cod league.
I just don't think he ever jumped off the page.
Stream-of-consciousness is the best way to keep the ideas flowing :- ) and if it duplicates something done later, that's actually an interesting way to track somebody's reaction ...
It's not the most familiar format, I admit, to chop a scouting report into 8 chapters :- )
Meaty issue you bring up there siems. Check's in the mail.
Like Sandy says of the Braves concentrating locally (IIRC), the M's kinda seem like they're doing that? (That WSU 1B, Romero, etc.)
Is it a byproduct of that?
The Mariners have had a few good Washington classes right in their backyard in recent years, and have pursued almost no one. That's the Rays business, it seems, or the Phillies. Last year, you had six prospects in the state rank in BA's top 200 and the M's got none of them. This year they had thirteen names in the top 500 and picked one of them, then signed a 26th rounder out of Edmonds CC. If the M's were actually trying to load up regionally, they'd have to pursue the big names instead of using one or two picks a year to go local.
Romero's 2011 OPS, month to month
April .624
May .664
June 1.093
July .920
August .821
Something was clearly going on there from the second half on. Hitters just don't do that in Clinton, college experience or no.