How much more must Epstein/Cashman, his team playing in a severe hitters' park, value shutdown SP realtive to Z, whose team plays in a dramatic pitchers' park? How much did Yankee spend on #1SP last offseason?
If Washburn can win as many games as Felix in half a season pitching in front of the same defense, what is the benefit of devoting 20% of your annual payroll to the King?
If it is true that defense and hitting are less volatile commodities than is pitching, and also that a combination of your home park and solid D is capable of turning a 34-year old flyballing lefty into a relative ace, why pay through the nose for a "true #1?"
If the delta between Washburn/Lackey and Felix is found mostly in run differential/ERA, not wins, why risk it, unless you are getting a HUGE value, as Z is trying to do? It is analogous to rather winning a game 3-0 than 6-3.
Having ‘banked” the defense, Z seems to be looking to the next bankable asset which is offense.
Rosenthal tells us that the M's have made Felix an offer: 4/$45m.
IF true, where did we get this information? Almost certainly, Felix' agent, or his operative, leaked it.
And why would he do that? It's to his advantage to call foul on the M's. He wants to rally support for his side. He wants the fans and media pressuring the M's.
It's the same thing, on a smaller scale, that unions do when they feel that management is lowballing them. They can't go to court -- they take it public. Power to the People, dude.
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Jemanji is not speaking as a fan when he rolls his eyes at 4/$45m (if accurate).
1. Fangraphs has Felix' value the last two years at $31 and $26 million per season, respectively. Jack wants to buy two of those FA years at $11m per season?
Ummmmmmyah, if I'm Felix, I'm telling the press we're far apart, too.
2. Olney quoted major league GM's as pegging 6 / $100-110m as fair. The M's offer takes that and lops off 2 years, $60m.
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I understand that it's an opening offer. But if it were true, it would be an insulting opening offer. Sell us TWO years of your $30m arm for $11m per? C'mon. In my experience, it doesn't help anything, to talk like that to your business partners.
We tolja that Zduriencik dude was a tough sonofagun. :- ) Of course, it's going to be to our advantage a lot of the time.
Not on this rumor.
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=== It Ain't All Bad, Dept. ===
Just noodling here: I'd almost be inclined to suspect that the M's are a leeeetle too ready to deal Felix this winter. If Rosenthal's anywhere in the ballpark, that opening offer could signal an attitude of, "If we get a steal, fine; if not, we'll take the Herschel Walker deal."
Remember, Jack Wilson praised the Mariners for, in their opening offer, giving him "very close to what we thought we'd get in free agency." With Chone Figgins also, the M's very early in the offseason came blasting into the lane with a 5th-year vest.
Could be wrong of course, but my immediate reaction is to wonder whether there are things we don't know about the magnitude of the trade value here.
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Needless to say, I want Felix back. Like James says, the fabric of baseball history is written on the jerseys of Hall of Fame starting pitchers. If you're Stars & Scrubs, you gotta have an ace.
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Let's see, as an opening salvo, the Yankees protected four youngsters, and then said, any other five you want. So that's their #3, #5, #6, #7 and #8 prospects as one offer out there, just for starters.
The M's gave two blue-chippers for Bedard, plus a good low-minors arm, plus a setup reliever, plus a throwin. The Yankees' offer rather implies five blue chippers.
Get a serious bidding war going -- with that as the baseline -- and Zduriencik might be very intrigued at what he knows to be the likely return. And remember, aside from the young talent back, there's Felix 6/ $110 back.
Just saying,
Dr D
image: lookoutlanding.com
Comments
This is pretty much what the 2001 Mariners did, is it not?
Sounds pretty good to me.
I think of it as the John Hart strategy, but it's also the Ron Shandler LIMA (low investment mound ace) and my own strategy in roto...
Much easier to lock in value when you spend your $$$$ on hitters, and much easier to beat your opponents to the punch in finding overlooked pitching talent than in finding overlooked hitting talent...
Of course, if 6 of my first 8 picks are hitters, the other two are a closer and a Cy Young candidate, and then fill the rest of the staff with "finds"...
Not saying I'd let Felix go. But if that's what Capt Jack decides to do, SSI won't rip him for it...
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Of course, I'm sure he'd object vociferously to the idea that a 4/$45m open constitutes a dis' to Felix in the first place...
Hitting and defense are reliable, so spend the $$ there, and trust to your judgment to get decent pitching...
In Felix' case the principle may apply, tho it's going to be a little difficult now to speak in terms of breaking up the Seaver-Matlack combo :- )
Had one of the best, maybe THE best, DER since the stat was recorded.
Moyer and Freddy were top-notch, and the pen was great, but the last 3 starters were pretty pedestrian.
Starting our 3s and 4s in Game 1 and 2 in the Championship series pretty much killed us against the Yankees that year...
With the new playoff format you really only need 3 starters.. having 2 aces like Felix and Lee at the top make the Ms a team no one wants to face in a short series.
I'll bet every team in baseball, other than the Yankees, would feel intimidated going into the series.