I asked G_Money who he was keeping an eye on for Ms 2nd-round pick (62nd overall). Don't miss his answer. Exec sum:
Charlie Tilson, speedy HS CF from Illinois
Tyler Anderson, LHP from Oregon who may not last that long
Josh Osich, LHP from Oregon State coming off TJ surgery
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Baseball America has a new mock draft out:
1. Anthony Rendon to Pirates
2. Gerrit Cole to Ms
3. Jed Bradley to D-backs
4. Danny Hultzen to Os
5. Bubba Starling to Royals (what an accumulation of talent that would be -- plus he's from Kansas, so it's a fit)
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Two guys that started the year in the top 10 of the draft are now injured and out indefinitely.
Matt Purke, the wiry lefty who went 18-0 and led TCU to the College World Series as a freshman, is out with shoulder problems.
Jackie Bradley Jr., the gifted, multitalented CF who led South Carolina to the national championship (beating Gerrit Cole to get there) has torn ligaments in his wrist. Bradley plays like the good version of Chone Figgins (apparently gone forever, that), except with more power (he had an awesome opposite-field shot in the College World Series last year).
Might one of them drop all the way to #62? As much as I would love it, I seriously doubt it. And if Purke fell that far, he'd probably just return to school. Bradley is just plain fun to watch, though. Too bad if he ends up missing the college postseason.
Commenter Tacoma Rain also notes that Oregon St. catcher Andrew Susac could drop due to injuries, possibly to #62. BA, however, has him still going at #19 in the first round despite the injury.
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A couple of potential #62 picks are intriguing to me.
The first prospect analysis I did, I suppose, was way back when Larry Bowa was still playing SS for the Cubs late in his career. I saw the Iowa Cubs play the Omaha Royals and I recall telling my buddy "I don't know if Shawon Dunston is any good, but he's got to be better than Larry Bowa." The very next day the Cubs released Bowa and called up Dunston. So there.
Anyway, here comes Shawon Dunston, Jr. into the draft. He's accepted an offer from Vanderbilt, so I don't know about signability, but it looks like he's got that Michael Saunders tall, athletic lefty thing going. You decide whether that's a good thing or not.
And a guy who is certainly not Anthony Rendon, but who is having a good year at 3b is Nebraska's Cody Asche. He's got 30 XBH, including 10 HR (which puts him in the top 20 nationally in HR), and has made a marked improvement in his eye this season. Last year he had 17 BB/49 K (0.35). This year, it's 25 BB/29 K (0.86). His overall line is .323/.423/.626, which is improved in all categories even with the new bats. This is at a high angle, but it shows an entire at-bat FWIW.
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As for Rendon, he finally got off the 3-HR mark by hitting his 4th this weekend, along with two doubles. Baseball America has an interview that is available to non-subscribers like most folks. His line now:
143 AB, 50 H, 19 XBH (13 dbl, 2 tpl, 4 HR), 62 BB, 22 K, 10 SB/4 CS -- .350/.552/.552
It's really only disappointing when you consider he slugged .800 last year, with more HR than strikeouts.
I still think there is a chance someone like Hultzen goes 1-1. When you triangulate risk/reward/cost and add in the Boras factor for Pittsburgh I believe Seattle is going to have to "choose" between Cole and Rendon.
Of course, the historical Seattle fan in me realizes Rendon is the perfect pick, which means it will never happen. :-)
I like that look as Asche. He's got a quiet quick bat.
Gerrit Cole vs. Sam Gaviglio tonight
Trevor Bauer vs. Josh Osich tomorrow afternoon
The two UCLA stars have been considered top-of-the-draft picks, with some recently willing to promote Bauer ahead of Cole.
Both of the Oregon State stars have been mentioned as possibilities in the second round, where the Mariners draft at #62. G_Money nominated Osich and OBF promoted Gaviglio.
Should be interesting matchups for sure.
We M's fans well remember the pre-Safeco days when the Mariners passed on quite a few tantalizing names...
I really want to see Cole go nuts in the last month.
I'm hoping the Pirates take him, or if not I want to feel better about picking him at #2.
All the M's really needed was for some one player, other than Rendon, to go nuts in 2011.
Because if he keeps being mediocre while Rendon is doing ALL HE CAN to drop to us and we lose out on the 3B of the future...
Grr. He'd better turn into one heck of a pitcher for us then. Though I still might prefer Bauer, even if it'll never happen.
~G
One week Gerrit Cole is 95% of Stephen Strasburg; coupla weeks later he's outside the top 10 ...
Gotta love the drafts. The pro's really wear their hearts on their sleeves :- )
Starling, and Gray, at the very least are now solidly in front of Cole for me. Cole is NOT instilling confidence. Grrrr...
PLEASE Pittsburg be scared of BORASS!!!!!!!!
:)
Also Gaviglio didn't look great tonight either but the ump had a Tiiiiiiiiiiiiiny strike zone (Sam came in with 12 bbs all year and had SEVEN tonight). The ump called it consistently, but for a guy like Sammy who lives on the black with four different pitches that is worse than facing an all star lineup!
He gamely stick in there though and came out with the win :) GO BEAVS!!!
I'd much rather take Bauer or a highschool position player.
Whats the argumetn for Cole at this point? If we're drafting based on tools, take a highschool hitter.
In some sense Cole imploding may be a good thing. I was never comfortable with him at #2 even with Strasburg-hype early on and now his stock is down enough to the point where its acceptable to pass on him.
His peripherals are medicore at this point. Hes a league-average division 1 SP.
It sure seems unlikely that Rendon will be there for the M's at #2.
So what about George Springer? Seems to be the best bat other than Rendon, yes? And with question marks on a lot of the top-ranked pitchers, and the M's need for position players, is that a route they would go?
Maybe. Springer has cuts his Ks down in half this year and seems to be getting better as the year goes on.
I've heard bad things about his swing mechanics, but hes got a high upside.
I didn't like Springer for his Ks, but they are down this year. Him, Bauer, Bubba, Lindor, etc.. A number of guys could be in the mix.
Hopefully someone busts out.. Bauer and Springer are killing it lately.
More on Bauer's success:
http://espn.go.com/blog/los-angeles/ucla/post/_/id/5887/pitcher-trevor-b...
Bauer's mechanics are solid:
http://www.facebook.com/video/video.php?v=1815243507990
After looking at Cole's hyperabduction and Hultzen's timing issues, I prefer Bauer's mechanics.
I am leaning toward Bauer if we go for a college SP. Springer for a college hitter. Lindor or Bubba for highschool hitters.. Somebody needs to go nuts.
OK, y'all have officially drummed me into the "worried about Cole" camp.
And, yes, I'm not sure where that leaves us. Rolling the dice big on Bubba Starling is more appealing than reaching for a college guy in my book, but the chance of coming up snake-eyes on the "freak athlete who's not steeped in baseball" is pretty high (Josh Booty, Drew Henson, even Bo Jackson never really was a "baseball player" even though he played some very good baseball.)
Only true multi-sport freak athlete I can think of who was a pure superstar is Dave Winfield, but I could be wrong.
I think Kirk Gibson would of fallen into that category of superstar baseball player if he hadn't blown out his knee early in his pro baseball career. As it was he was still a very good player but maybe 60% of what he would of been.
...because I don't like ANY of the other players we might get #2 besidews Rendon...never did like Cole all that much...and really hate the idea of taking a high school guy who is not Ken Griffey Jr. at #2 in any draft. Especially hate the idea of taking a college pitcher this year since college pitching is the new Fanny Mae...(ead: seriously market-inflated by circumstance).
:)
And boy am I stoked that the good guys came out on top :) Go Beavs!
Josh Osich with a NO HITTER, his only blemish was a walk, that was a gift by the ump as he called stike 3 ball 3 in route to the one and only base runner for the Bruins, a walk.
Osich faced 28 batters and struck out 13 of them, what an outing!
Bauer also didn't disappoint as he threw a complete game as well facing only 34 batters and striking out 15 batters, but gave up 4 hits and 2 walks including the game winning double (by a high school senior to boot, Kavin Keyes), only 2 runs given up.
Also an interesting contrast in styles. Bauer, a right hander, by his own estimation throws 11 (eleven) different picthes and has linceicum type of pitch mix and antics (he freely says that he has modeled his game on Timmay), he throws good heat (92-94), but would rather get you with the breaking ball.
Osich on the other hand is a lefty and only throws 2 pitches, Gas and a change. Osich is a lefty with a true upper nineties heat 94-98 mph, and a very nice change up with split finger movement.
2 pitchers, 28 strike outs, WHAT A GAME!!!!
Bauer has to be the first SP taken right now. I could see an argument for Springer too, or maybe Lindor/Bubba if one of them improves.
Cole has dropped to mid first round in my book abd Rendon, Bauer and Hultzen are all vying for #1.
But he might not be the fifth pitcher taken. Teams are terrified of his college workload, his height, and his...interesting motion. They were scared off Lincecum and they'll be scared off Bauer. If we drafted Bauer because Rendon was gone I'd have no problem with it.
The odds are against it though.
~G
Why would his mechanics scare teams off though? Hes FAR better in that regard than Cole or Hultzen who both have some red flags in their deliveries.
Bauer locks his leg a little early, but from a pure injury-prevention perspective hes very impressive. I never understood what scared teams off of Lincecum either though.
I like what Bauer himself said about the high pitch counts:
“I don’t worry about pitch count,” he said. “I do a lot of studying on how to throw with good mechanics and healthy deceleration. It’s not 134 pitches of improper mechanics. It’s 130 of doing it right and no stress and maybe four of ‘gotta fix that.’ I think it’s a lot less stress on my arm than some guys who have never been taught how to decelerate properly.”
...and not at all what you usually hear from a pitcher. This guy does seem to have a good head on his shoulders and a lot of baseball IQ.
That quote alone bumps him up on my board!
Bauer has a unique work-out routine and is apparently obssessed with fitness, mechanics, tweaking/adding pitches, and game strategy.
"Bauer credits increased velocity and better command of his fastball for his recent run of success. He worked all last offseason on conditioning and improving his fastball, choosing to train rather than play on any summer teams. He’s added two or three miles an hour and now is consistently hitting 93-95 miles an hour. He said he’s hit 97 several times and his goal is to reach 98 at some point this season. "
http://espn.go.com/blog/los-angeles/ucla/post/_/id/5887/pitcher-trevor-b...
College stats can be tricky to decipher.
Some very interesting developments in this Sports Illustrated Top 25, which was supposedly compiled from conversations with scouting directors....
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/jon_heyman/05/02/draft.top...
If we take Francisco Lindor over Rendon, I may have a few issues with it. He hopes to be a .750 OPS shortstop with plenty of tools and a good contact rate, but is never gonna be an on-base guy. He's not Rickie Weeks - the comp given a lot is Jose Reyes, who is a good player...
I would be happy to have a Jose Reyes in my lineup. I'm not as happy to wait 4-5 years for a Jose Reyes and then still not have a MOTO when he gets here.
If Rendon falls to us, we need to take him. Period.
If the Pirates take Cole and we DON'T take Rendon...then it had better be because we just couldn't pass up an arm like Bauer who could be up next year making the rotation even scarier.
We have our own Lindor - his name is Esteilon Peguero, and we just offered almost 3 million and signed him for 1.1, so we already threw money at that sort of player.
More and more it looks like Rendon may get to us. The fact that I now have to be concerned that somehow he'll get PAST us is pretty mind-blowing.
I still don't think it happens.
~G
Churchill responded to a comment the other day saying he guesses only a 10-15% chance Ms would pick someone other than Rendon or Cole. http://prospectinsider.com/view/draft-weekly:-4.30.11/
Don't know what he said behind the pay wall, but I don't recall him ever linking the Ms to Lindor.
I do tend to trust that the guys who delivered Ackley-Franklin-[Baron]-Poythress-Seager-Jones and then Walker-Littlewood-Paxton-Pryor will make a good choice. (And Baron seems to be coming around, with a .750 OPS this year.)
Cole and Rendon are making it a tougher call than it should be, but there's nothing indicating their ceilings are lower than they were at the start of the year.
I'm guessing the odds of passing on Rendon, if he's there, are very slim. Passing on Cole, if Rendon's gone, is probably somewhat more likely.
I'm not sure I'd even use a Jose Reyes comp on Lindor, sounds like his speed is projected more for 30-40 SB than 60-70. Lindor will be an overdraft for someone who needs a SS, don't think that's the M's.
If Rendon and Cole continue to fall, my sleeper is Dylan Bundy. He's definitely got the highest ceiling in the draft, and now some of the players who were supposed to be certainties are not quite as certain. Very risky to draft a HS arm at #2 in a draft with this much high ceiling college talent, but the M's are good at developing pitchers and are in decent shape to be aiming for the stars with this pick.
Bauer complete game, 12 Ks. Heres another article:
http://www.azcentral.com/sports/diamondbacks/articles/2011/05/06/2011050...
Some highlights:
Spend 15 minutes talking pitching with him and you get the sense he could go on for hours. That he could teach a semester-long course on the biomechanics of pitching deliveries and the game theory behind pitch sequences.
He'll tell you how he patterned his mechanics off of Lincecum. How he admires the way Nolan Ryan was able to decelerate his arm. How he tries to emulate Cliff Lee's ability to throw each of his pitches from the same "tunnel." How he believes his understanding of his mechanics help allay pitch-count concerns.
And he admits to some apprehension about a team drafting him and trying to change him.
"It's a concern because I really feel like that's what makes me who I am and I feel like that's the best way to get myself prepared," he said. "There are some things that I'd definitely like to keep, but there are some things that I realize in pro ball I might have to do this or do that. I haven't played pro ball yet so we'll see what works and what doesn't."
"I do a lot of study and work on how to decelerate my arm and how to throw with more of my body than just my arm," he said. "The day after I pitch, I can pitch again. My arm is never sore. If I get sore anywhere, it's through my pec (pectoral), my scap (scapula) muscles or my abs. But my arm is never sore."