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but if Guerrero is available, and would like to come to Seattle for a decent price, then all I have to say is...
HELL YA!
Lonnie
Vlad the Impaler and The Big Hurt
=== So Was Edgar ===
1. I'd say that he's a DH, period, any more. So figure his value on that basis - competing with the Dunns, Thomes, etc.
He was never the poster boy for good defense, and we hear it's gotten ugly lately, PLUS you're talking about the DL agony starting to pile up on him, Junior-style.
When you hear $5-8M per year, that sounds sensational, but if you are paying for an Eric Davis-like 120 games at DH, well.... it's still intriguing, but maybe not as thrilling as it sounds.
.
=== HOF Monitor: 188 over 100 ===
2. I'm not sure I've ever seen a more gifted baseball hitter. Since 1970.
Manny's more disciplined, but no better at swatting a flying horsehide. Ichiro can bisect a pitch slightly better, but Vlad take a huge, long swing to do almost the same thing.
SSI puts a big thumb on the scale for talent. Math doesn't "capture" The Vlad-inator. His ability to rebound shouldn't be underestimated.
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=== Transcends a LOT of Things ===
3. Vlad is .368/.430/.659 lifetime at Safeco Field, and from 2001-04 he was facing really good pitching.
I'm sure that he is the single best RH performer at Safeco since it was built.
Even as he ages, his right-handedness at Safeco should be written off as a non-issue.
.
=== What Are All These Blinking Lights, Cap'n ===
4. Prior to Vlad's big crash in 2009, Shandler warned people off him: "Pay for AVG, not for PX; he's not elite any more."
2009, he's playing badly injured, but the EYE took a huge swan dive off the balcony (to a woeful, for him, 0.33 or so).
Per his age -- only 35 for a first-ballot HOF'er -- he should have several good years of hitting left, if he could stay healthy.
I'm sure that Vlad will hit .300 with gap power, as long as he can swing a bat, but his return to MOTO status is not a given.
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=== Albert Belle Path ===
5. There's some concern that his, um, training methods are catching up to him and he'll be hurt from now on. I'll guess a 20% chance that it's downhill from here.
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=== Big Hurt Post-2002 Dept. ===
6. OTOH, Angels' fans think that Vlad can still dominate when healthy.
My guess -- just at a glance -- is that you should expect only a mild bounceback from his 106 OPS+, .300/.330/.460 injury performance in 2009.
In Safeco, if he's feeling good and rested some, I'd figure .300/.330/.475 for a park 115-120 OPS+.
There's an HOF'er's chance and he'll do what this guy did, have two straight lousy years at 33-34 ... and then go on to 5 awesome years from 35-39. After 2002, I'd have thought for sure that Thomas was on the way down.
I'll guess a good 30%+ chance that Vlad can pull off a Big Hurt -- a mid-30's lull followed by five years of MOTO hitting.
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=== Dr's Prognosis Dept. ===
One of the most volatile gambles of 2010.
20% - Liability from here out
50% - .300/.330/.475
30% - Frank Thomas path to huge production in late 30's
One year, $5-8M? Think you can take it from there? We are NOT talking about paying MOTO money for Vlad. We're asking whether he is available at a value purchase.
If Vlad is any kind of reasonable 1-year value, you buy the 300/330/475 Eric Davis year figuring on even money, and you quietly stick the 30% Frank Thomas ticket in your back pocket as your vigorish.
It's Vlad blinkin' Guerrero. If you can get into that, for a one-year flier, you do it.
Cheers,
Dr D
Comments
2
Ya know... I really like Vlad, and could get used to the idea of him being a Mariner. Further, the M's will probably need a right handed power hitter the way this line-up is currently shaping up, and Vlad is about as good as one could hope for.
Unfortunately, I just to not know where. I feel fairly secure in stating that Griff will get atleast 400 AB's, so if Vlad was the second half of the DH PLUS some Pinch hitting, Vlad might get 300 AB's. I just do not see Vlad agreeing to doing that, even for $8 mil / year.
As you mentioned above, Vlad's defense is now awful, so even with some kind if platoon with Saunders, MAYBE just MAYBE you can get that total 450 AB's...but then the question comes if Vlad can stay healthy playing in the OF - ESPECIALLY left field in SAFECO...Plus, with Wak and Z's philosophy of defense, I just have a hard time seeing this dream come true.
I hope I am wrong, but I do not see a place for Vlad in Seattle.
Tacoma Rain
3
Griffey himself stated that he didn't expect a lot of playing time...he knows he can't handle it physically even if he gets in better shape. Zduriencik and Griffey basically shook on the idea that Griffey was coming back to be a 200-250 AB part time DH, occasional left fielder and pinch hitter (and Ichiro tickler). There's plenty of ABs to give Vlad. He's not a good fielder, but if Griffey is DHing he can handle the corner twice a week.
4
Matt,
I'll meet more than half way, and I REALLY hope that YOU ARE RIGHT!
Griffey got 450 AB's last year, and the reception he received EVERY TIME he came to the plate in Safeco, along with how Griffey responded over the last 2 months...Griffey will get 300 AB's in 2010. So then, my math figures that Vlad gets 320 AB's at DH and pinch hitting. Then with Vlad playing 55 games in left averaging 3.3 AB's / 7 innings where Saunders comes in for a defense / pinch runner....and my guess is roughly 500 AB's for Vlad. I'M SOLD!!!
I hope that is enough for Vlad.
Tacoma Rain
5
On the Vlad Guerrero issue.
As an athlete, I don't understand him. Two athletes that to me seem kinda similar to him, in that I don't get them... Nate MacMillan and Dirk Nowitzki. All three of those dudes, you see 'em walk around and they're kinda herky-jerky, look like they maybe grew just a bit too much, long limbs & knobby joints... Not the fluid, graceful, classic athlete archetype.
I watched Dirk Nowitzki once at a shootaround before a Sonics game, and thought, he looks injured and he's going to have an off night. Then he dropped like 35 and 12 or something.
Same with Vlad, I watch him shuffle out to right field with a limp and I think, the dude's knees are about to go. Then the game starts and he's sprinting and catching everything and pumping jacks into the nosebleeds.
I have no earthly idea if he's about to toe the Mendoza line or go Big Hurt as you suggest he might.