1
I'm no Isaiah, but I certainly hope Jack and his crew are not expecting any run of miracles by the two Jesus' on the team.
AL Luck for 5, Alex
You Want Me To Spot You HOW MANY Games?
(this post was too big for shout, so I made it an article instead)
* * *
This morning I noticed perhaps the saddest statistic of this sad season for the M's.
After all, one might convince oneself that the M's are better than what they've shown, that a big factor in their frustrations has been bad luck. BABIP, batted ball velocity, all sorts of stuff might be marshaled to do the convincing.
And then you run into THIS simple fact. The Seattle Mariners are plus five to Pythagorean win expectancy. Let me say that again in case you missed it. Your Seattle Mariners are PLUS FIVE to Pythag. In case you still haven't got it, the Seattle Mariners share with Kansas City and Texas the distinction of being the LUCKIEST teams in the AL with regard to win expectancy due to run differential. They have won FIVE MORE games than their run differential suggests they should have.
Thus, if we look forward to next year, Bill James' principle of "snapback" with regard to teams that over- or underperform Pythag leads us to expect it will be hard for this same team to even match the accomplishments of this year's team. Anything we add in the offseason is just making it less likely that we are even worse.
(Of course I realize that reality is more nuanced than this, but you still have to reckon with facts.)
Postscript:
I say what I really think, but sometimes I feel like the prophet Jeremiah. I am painfully aware that Isaiah’s are needed.
Comments
2
Most of that Pythag deal is due to the M's 25-21 record in 1-Run games. James, years ago, suggested that 1-Run game records are primarily random and mostly due to luck: Toronto, with a 71-56 record is 13-24 in 1-Run games, for example.
3
The Mariners are a great example of why straight pythag is sometimes deceptive. The Mariners have the record they have, with the run differential they have, because they've been OBLITERATED several times this season and it's throwing off the numbers. Their game by game pythag is right in line with their W/L record.
4
Most teams get obliterated a few times. The M's have lost, however, by 10, 12, 12, 13 and 14 runs. They've also lost by 7 runs 5 times. they've won by 7 runs 4 times.