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By the way, was everybody here aware that Felix got his nickname from the M's blog-o-sphere?  Specifically, U.S.S. Mariner.  You could call that a blogger's dream, I think.  Imagine if Tuner made up the reference to Russell Wilson as "First Name Russell" and then for the next 20 years listened to ESPN call him that.  :- )

As you might have noticed, Felix won his 18th game on Saturday.  With 12 games left, the Mariners could easily massage their intentions to get Felix three opportunities to win two more, rather than what he'd usually get, which is two more chances to win two more.  Will they?

Normally, we don't interact much with Anonymouses.  However, in this case the Anonymous is Biology Rick or Silentpadna or somebody almost as important, like a baseball scout or Bernie Sanders or somebody.  In the Shout Box, Anonymous sheepishly argued:

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I hope Felix can start on the 25th and 30th. That way if he's still short on wins or Ks, he *could* pitch on th 4th on short rest, or they could have Taijuan or Nuno start and bring him in in the 4th to get a vulture win --- isn`t that how RJ got his 20th?

Normally I wouldn't be in favor of those shenanigans... But in Felix's case, he's been cheated out of so many W's, I'd be totally fine with it.

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More than "totally fine," apparently, since you made the motion, seconded it and presented a convincing argument to "close the circle" on your idea's toughness.  ... Hold it.  Anonymous is Mojo?

First of all, yep yeppity yeppers.  In 1997, the Unit made a 2.0 IP relief appearance on Sept. 27th to win his 20th.  The shenanigans have faded; the baseball card has not.  And nobody complains about the Unit backing into the Hall of Fame.  You want to blow on a little almanac smudge and wipe it off with your shirt to create 20 wins in 1997, the back of Unit's baseball card won't complain.  Hey, nothing wrong with a little lipstick and eyeshadow, even if you are Evangeline Lilly.

OR ... is that kind of a LIE?  To manipulate the situation to produce 20 wins in the stats, when the "natural" outcome would have been 19?

.....

Anyway, funny you should mention, since at BJOL they just now discussed this ... Whoop, they just now discussed it in Dr. D's frame of reference (senility), because he saw it in the 2007 archives there.  The article is titled The Targeting Phenomenon.  James asks the question, Do teams really push a player towards 20 wins, or 200 strikeouts, or 40 homers?  And if so, do they do it more (less) since the big-bucks free agency era?

He comes up with an elegant thought experiment.  "Do you suppose there are more pitchers who win 15 games in a year, or who win 16?"  Of course, the answer is 15.  And there are more SP's who win 7 games than who win 8.   And more who win 3 games than who win 4.  The most common number for wins is 0; the second-most common number is 1, and so on.

Except that there are more pitchers who win 20 games than who win 19.  We knew that; we're just stopping for a second to realize the implications, Bill articulately points out.  The implication, of course, is that teams make contortions to get a pitcher his 20th win.

.....

Bill examined this for every stat.  He found that teams do, in fact, massage situations to get pitchers two kinds of stats:

• Wins, and
• Strikeouts in a season, the very stat that Anon had mentioned.

They don't massage pitcher opportunities to get them a 2.99 ERA, or 250 IP, or anything like that, and never have done so.  And, there is no targeting in the Saves stat.  Interesting, no?

.....

If a hitter wants to make a Happy Meal out of a nice round stat figure, guess which stats a team will provide a booster seat for?

• HITS - there are 49 players who have 200 hits exactly, but only 27 who finished with 199
• RBI - many players have been helped by their teams to get 100 RBI
• STOLEN BASES - every 10-level of SB's gets targeted
• AVERAGE - Teams routinely sit players out, late, to protect a .300 average

But there is no targeting of HR, SLG, OBP, or .... Runs Scored!  There is no bubble around 100 runs whatsoever.  Odd.  It would be relatively easy to manufacture that, right?  With a pinch-run?

Home runs don't show "targeting" because there are massively more 39-HR seasons than 40-HR seasons, far more 29s than 30s, etc.  You've noticed that when players are trying for homers, they don't hit them.  Even Nelson Cruz was on 39 for quite awhile, wasn't he?

And, teams do not target more now than they used to do.  Considering SportsCenter, that surprises Dr. D.

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Since it's a 2007 article, Bill won't mind a relatively substantial excerpt, I'm sure.  It's still only $3 per month for the second-best baseball reading on the interwebs.

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In 1964 Tony Cloninger won his 19^th game of the season with a couple of days left on the schedule.   On the last day of the season the Braves led 6-0 after three innings.   The manager, Bobby Bragan, asked Cloninger if he would like to go in and pitch a couple of innings to pick up his 20^thwin.   

“No,” said Cloninger.   “When I win 20 games, I want to do it on my own.”  He did win twenty the next year—24, in fact. - James

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[Dr. D] Now, that's justice, is it not?  That smile you got, right there, is probably the best argument against helping Felix get his 20th.  (One argument against WOULD be that 20-win seasons are huge in Hall of Fame voting.  It WOULD be, except that there isn't going to be any vote in Felix' case.)

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Brooks Robinson used to tell this story on himself, don’t know if he still does.   He had a miserable year in 1963, and went into his last at bat of the season hitting exactly .250—147 for 588.   If he made an out, he wound up the season hitting under .250—but he got a hit, and wound up at .251.   He said it was the only hit he got all season in a pressure situation.   

That’s my point.. .players WANT to wind up the season hitting .250, rather than in the .240s.   They tend to make it happen.

....

In 1959 Bob Allison had 27 homers by the end of July, on pace for 40+, but hit only two in August and one in September, and missed the record.  Again, his manager (Cookie Lavagetto) talked openly about how disappointed he was that Allison had failed to break the record.   Allison, Callison.  When Johnny Callison was at .301 with two days left in the season in 1962, his manager, Gene Mauch, gave him only one at bat over the last two days of the season so that he would stay at .300.  He explained to the media that he wanted Callison, a young player, to go through the winter thinking of himself as a .300 hitter.

.....

I remember a story about Rocky Colavito stealing a base.   It was a nothing game, sort of getting out of hand, and Rocky took off for second, and they gave him a stolen base (the defensive indifference rule was virtually never applied in those days.)  Asked about it after the game, Rocky joked that he liked to get into every category sometime during the year, and he had stolen bases taken care of now.

So you see, targeting could effect the distribution at any level.  That’s targeting, too.   Rocky’s target was one stolen base. - James

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Back to Felix:  if Mauch wanted Callison "to go through the winter thinking of himself as a .300 hitter," maybe it could help the M's for Felix to start thinking of himself as a 20-game winner.  The lad could do with a little confidence.

More to the point, perhaps, who said 20 W's had to come from games started?  Or 40 points in the NBA had to come from outside the key?  Or five rushing TD's had to come in a close game?  There used to be many pitchers who were "swing men," contributing to their teams as starters and relievers.  It's maybe a bit artificial, in the year 2015, to get him a relief opportunity for the sake of a stat, but don't we do that routinely with closers?  It's a 3-run lead, they come in.  Lead goes to 4, they sit down.  

As Lou said, "I like my starters to get W's, and my closer to get saves."  Throwing Felix a bouquet wouldn't be the worst thing the M's have done all year.

BABVA,

Dr D