Konspiracy Korner: American Elections
a three-pointer either way should do it

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In 2012, after Obama beat Romney, James wrote a political piece that included this good-natured chide:

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Post-Election and Sportscasters

In a basketball game, if one team jumps off to a 20-11 lead and holds the lead until late in the game, the broadcast color man in most cases—19 times out of 20—will spend most of the game browbeating everything that the trailing team does.    They can be trailing 83-78 with two minutes to play, and the announcer will still be dogging them:   They have no energy, their offense is out of sync, they’re not taking care of the ball, they’re not blocking out on rebounds, etc., etc.   If it’s 41-38 at halftime, the halftime analysis will score about 70-15—an endless series of criticisms of the team which has, in truth, merely missed one three-pointer or failed to defend one.  

What the Republicans are going through now is the same thing:  an endless loop of greatly exaggerated criticisms of everything they have done—they’ve disrespected women, they’ve forgotten the middle class, they’ve sold out to Wall Street, they’ve alienated Latinos, they have presented no vision for the future, etc., etc.   Guys, it was 64-60.   Knock it off.

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Yeah, I think it's worth remembering that American elections are close.  This is good.  James follows on the point that it is good:

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In modern American politics, the two parties split most elections almost 50-50—so much so that a 64-60 vote is considered a rout.    Political commentators will talk about how remarkably evenly split the American electorate is.

This has nothing whatsoever to do with the electorate being evenly split.   It results from political parties adopting positions that maximize their coverage.   The Republicans may want to ban abortion entirely (certainly some of them do), but they also want to win elections.  The Democrats may wish to legalize infanticide (certainly some of them do), but they also want to win elections.  If either side adopts a radical position, they lose elections, lose power, and have to adapt their position.   

The Republicans may wish to devote 70% of the federal budget to military spending; the Democrats may wish to cut it to 5%.   If either side pushes too hard, they lose elections, and have to adapt.   The positions taken by each side on every issue are constantly adjusted and adapted to form a compromise between the extreme positions and the center of the country—hence, elections in a two-party system are always pushed near to the 50-50 balance point.  

One would think this was obvious, but believe me, I watch a LOT of political analysis, and 90% of the political analysts don’t have a clue that this is what is happening.

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Baseball teams shift their 8 fielders around like the pseudopodia of an amoeba, trying to capture 71% of the field rather than 70%.  Similarly, the RNC and DNC slide their positions and sound bites around so as to retain 48% vs 47% on the Day Before.  Donald Trump is, of course, a pretty extreme defensive shift :- )

I saw one comments thread where a liberal man was, very sincerely I thought, BEGGING somebody to tell him ANYTHING that would appeal to a rational person about Donald Trump.  (On BJOL most of the readers consider him a "whimsical" candidate.)

Another reader replied, drolly, with a truncated list like this:

Wall

Anti-PC

Pro-business 

Pro-military

Tough negotiator

Stands up to media

Pro-America

And, Dr. D thought to himself, what is so Platypusal about Donald Trump other than his veneer?  Certainly the guy has flaws; personally, I do not like Donald Trump.  He's one of the last people in the world I'd go to dinner with.  Also, his lack of Presidentiality makes me sigh deeply at the thought of him holding George Washington's job.

But isn't that what Republicans have pleaded for, these past two decades?  For any politician who won't Play Ball with the lobbyists and PC media?  Well, this is the kind of "whimsical" approach it's going to take, to be heard through the MSM monolith.  

When Trump blew off the Megyn Kelly debate,* it was preposterous --- > when viewed through the lens that the media has given us.  Walking away, when you don't like the terms, is not preposterous in terms of the way Trump negotiates deals.  The very next day, he got offers from Cruz, Rubio and Fox News for lucrative debates under better terms.

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To Hillary's critics, her private hard drive for Secretary of State-level secrets is the quintessential Clintons.  Yes, we do things back channel, and no, you can't see what they are.  If Susie Mainstreet wants to believe that the U.S. government is a bigger version of the local P.T.A., that's great.  Susie can keep driving to soccer while we get our hands dirty that hers might stay clean.

The New York Times defends the Clintons as doing what government does.  I think the NYT has its issues, but this has traction.  Whatever fearful things go on in the U.S. Government, we are not talking Rafael Trujillo or Saddam Hussein here.  Like James says, it's a closer ballgame than the commentators make it sound.

Which is why some of these people fight so desperately.  In the NBA, a single three-pointer will swing the game.

Respectfully,

Jeff

Blog: 

Comments

1

And I will say nothing further than this:

Donald Trump must not be President.

Hillary Clinton must not be President.

One is a hard-headed, egotistical, bad-tempered, calculating menace to liberty - the worst sort of charleton that populism in the US has ever churned out.  The other is a borderline-treasonous felon who cared not one wit for the safety and security of the American people, our assets all over the globe, or the privacy of our communications, and who has a lifetime of demonstrating a similar self-absorption and callousness toward the rule of law.

I oppose Bernie Sanders' political position (vehemently) and believe he would be a disaster for the economy, but I would much..much rather have Sanders in the White House than Clinton or Trump.

That is all.

2

is an interesting alternative to all of them. I don't know if smaller government is the answer, but it might be worth a try. Is that how things used to be in what sounds to me like the golden age of the 50s and 60s, less government?

3

Actually, the 50's and 60's should not be viewed as times of small government, though compared to today they are.

Big Government started in earnest under Franklin Roosevelt as his response to the Great Depression. It mobilized and fought World War 2 under the overall direction George Marshall, who later became the architect of the Marshall Plan to rebuild Europe. The most famous American general of WW2 was Dwight Eisenhower, more an administrative-political general than a war-fighter. Since WW2 resulted not in a pacific state of affairs but rather in the Cold War against the Soviet Union, as President starting in 1953 Eisenhower, despite the warnings late in his term about the military-industrial complex, brought this Big Government administrator point of view to Washington DC, as an example initiating the modern US highway and freeway system.

The '60's saw the introduction of The War On Poverty and The Great Society under Lyndon Johnson, while as a response to growing (and justified) racial discontent the Civil Rights movement was born, and a bureaucracy to put the resources of the government to work aggressively addressing it.

This non-professional historical survey is brought to you by Brylcream. A little dab 'll do ya.

4

I spend much more of my time watching sports / playing fantasy sports than following politics. My knowledge of current or past politics is limited, so this was very informative to me. I grew up in the 70's and 80's when a family could afford a modest home on one paycheck at a regular job. Don't know how much of the blame for that falls on politics, how much on corporations, and how much on us as consumers for not supporting USA based business. I guess that's a topic for a different thread :)

5

My man Mark Rubio stated the Republican take on Sanders for president thusly: "He makes an excellent candidate for president.  Of Sweden."  Still, I'm with you.  Rather have a clean socialist than a dirty capitalist or a dirty socialist.  Morality is a big issue for the presidency, and Trump and Clinton have some serious issues.  The fact that they continue to run, and inflict themselves on us, we who haven't done anything wrong, shows that they have a few screws loose. 

Trump has mobilized me to vote in the Republican primary, which is something that is new.  I'll get behind whatever non-Trump Republican sweeps the important voting states.  It looks like Ted Cruz, who isn't exactly my pick of the litter. 

My druthers:

1. Chris Christie

2. Mike Huckabee

3. Marco Rubio

4. The Republican Pack,

5. Ted Cruz

6. The Democrat pack, Bernie or whoever,

7. Hillary Clinton

8. Random guy on the street

9. Abolish presidency and set up Parlaiment

10. Go live at my Indian tribe in Canada

11. Trump. 

I have some serious doubts about that Trump third or so of Republicans, and am having trouble affiliating with them. 

6

I'm in with the Mattster, well...except for rather having Sanders in the White House.  Bernie Sanders needs to just go home. like the nutty/embarrassing uncle every family has.  

Hillary has none of the smooth likeability that Bill C. had, despite his personal demons.  She has the rough abrassive nature of a Nancy Pelosi.   In fact, she hasn't much to offer presidentially, except she's female, which is entirely what she plants her flag on (stated or unstated)

Both of them utter the phrase "free college" (or some similar iteration) with sincerity. In and of itself that is scary.

Trump is a Father Coughlin/Ross Perot/Huey Long hybrid.  He's selling snake oil just like he sells idiotic television.  However, he knows his game.  In the wide wide world of sports the USA has never elected a rank amatuer of the Trump type.  God help us if we do now.   

My 2 cents.  Probably worth less.

7

The Dilbert creator has the shizzle on Trump.

Read his blog if you want to understand the Trumpster.

Remember when we all (ok, ME) thought that the election of Arnie to the California gubernatorial-ness was a horrific joke and embarrassment? Well, turns out we (and by "we," I mean "me") were, as Danny O'Neil likes to say,  wr ... wr ... WRO... mistaken.  He cut through the partisan nonsense of both sides and got realistic solutions to their seemingly intractable problems pushed through the legislature. 

After reading Adams' explanations, I strongly suspect Trump could do the same for the whole country. For example, he's the only Republican candidate with the cojones to insist that we need to raise taxes on the rich. And it's apparently cost him not a point in the polls. 

Odd, that ...

( - ;

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Funny - I've been following Adams' commentry on Trump and it's changed my perception quite a bit. Every time I thought Trump had gone off the rails and done something that will torpedo his campaign, I've been wrong. Dead wrong, every time. I've given up - I now just assume that he's playing chess while everyone else is playing checkers. He's seeing things that we just aren't. That's my theory anyway. If he secures the nomination, it'll be interesting to see how he pivots to the middle for the general. 

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Before the Iowa caucus, I guessed that because of the Megyn Kelly debate fiasco, --- > Trump would lose a few points in the polls, BUT --- > it would be a grand investment:  the whole world now "gets it" that he'll walk away from any deal.  Pennies spent on votes, dollars gained in "brand image."

That now looks wrong.  Krauthammer opined that Trump's "winner" mystique has been punctured, and that there could be a blood-in-the-water effect.  Without his "I Never Lose" mystique, what *is* Trump exactly?

We'll find out.

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Kudos to Megyn Kelly -- not my fave to say the least -- who was incredibly understated in her hosting of the post-mortem.  Would have been so easy for her to gloat.

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Then it should come with an apology to the family of Richard Nixon. But, I suppose the rule of law became passé during the Bill Clinton perjury case, which turned into "lying about sex." That defense was fair enough, the Lewinski affair was a diversion from a real sexual assault case (even though back then you could laugh and sneer at women with big hair). But a home server serving up classified information? For convenience? Aides copying state secrets off classified computers to send them to Clintonemail.com? And of course, the whole thing was designed to continue to fill the Clinton Foundation coffers with quid pro quo. Do I have a smoking gun? Seriously folks, do I really need it? Is the circumstantial evidence and timing when matched up with professional liars not enough to at least say, "I find that a little hard to believe, Mr. Smart."

But one thing we learned through Monicagate is that these folks are liars. There are vast right wing conspiracies. And there are liars who trample on insignificant people - like the families of dead State department and CIA security personnel fighting to save lives while the higher ups lie to them to win elections. Bumpkins with big hair. These folks will lie to prosecutors, the people, the press. Yes, I will grant to you that everyone does it. But only the Clintons have a willing press to cover for them. Because the left and the press all know you can't let the Republicans win.

Anyway, I don't expect the Justice department to do anything but join the press in covering for Mrs. Clinton, She has dirt on Obama and it will keep him in line (It was Obama who insisted on turning Benghazi terror attack into a demonstration gone bad, and when Hillary went along, she sold her integrity for the Presidency). But if the Republicans prosecute this case in the election, and the American people vote her in anyway. Well, Nixon's daughters should receive some sort of apology For the shame and humiliation they were forced to endure.

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Knowing there are many people here of the conservative/GOP persuasion, I'm asking your insight on a couple of things:

1) Do you consider Donald Trump a Republican?  Why or why not?

2) What do you think are the three issues/trends/philosophies that most unite the GOP right now? 

3) If all GOP voters were polled on that same question, do you think they'd give the same three answwers?

Thanks in advance.

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1) Emphatically no.

Trump is no more a Republican than is Ted Cruz a Democrat.  Trump has given about eleven times more money to democrats than to republicans in his adult life according to an analysis run by National Review.  Trump supports a variety of positions that just about every likely voter who self-identifies as a Republican would loudly oppose save, perhaps, for the least informed among them.  Single-payer/universal healthcare, significant restrictions on gun ownership rights, large taxes on business, tariffs on China and other competitiors, bloated farm subsidies and other boondoggles, the abusive use of eminant domain for personal gain, and, perhaps most importantly, partial birth abortion and the continued federal backing of Planned Parenthood.  The fact that he has reversed himself miraculously in 2015/2016 on some (but not all) of these issues is quite opportunistic, but I don't frankly buy it.  Note, also, I am not a Republican, though I am conservative.  I don't agree with the GOP on all of the issues I outlined above, just noting the issues that he's taken the opposite side to the GOP platform on...and they are quite numerous.

2) The GOP is not now, nor has it ever been, truly united (but we could say the same for the democrat party - our two-party system forces each side to form a broad coalitiion of constituents and appeal to them as often as they can without alienating any of them).  While democrats hold a coalition that sometimes forces leaders to choose between the priorities of blacks and Hispanics (they sometimes collide), greens and union leaders (they almost always collide), and educated elites and uneducated (disenfrancised) minorities (they conflict more than people seem to realize), the GOP is basically broken into four groups.  Religious populists (whose main issues are social - right to life, anti-gay-marriage, anti-poverty family programs, etc), small and moderate-sized business (big business leans overwhelming to the left these days because a big government benefits large businesses and crushes their competition) owners and investors (the club for growth / chamber of commerce side of the party) whose main issues are deregulation, GDP growth, and taxation, the libertarians, who vote about 2 to 1 for the GOP and who are primarily interested in small government and constitutional rigorism, and constitutionalists/tea partiers (some in the te aparties are really religious populists, but many are hard-line constitutionalists with just a flavoring of culture warrior on top) whose primary issues right now are illegal immigration, the rule of law and fears about the government becoming abusive or toxic to individual liberty.

Having said all of that...there is one issue that unites conservatives today - even the libertarians.  That issue is radical Islamism.  While the left seems desperate to accommodate and adjust to the encroaching of Islamist calls for tolerance that seem highly one-sided (as in...we are asked to accept their way of life, but they demand we change ours), the right seems united, today, in its desire to fight Islamism (there are disagreements on the best way to do this).  Note, I'm saying Islamism, not Islam.  They are not the same thing - something I wish Trump would recognize.

3) No, I don't think every conservative would agree on the most important issues.

The net average, right now, would favor security-based issues - Islamism and Military strength, illegal immigration, federal government lawlessness and the infringements of our Constitutional rights that many perceive are underway...and that our economic concerns, which used to be near the top of our list, are, at present, lower down.

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lr's picture

But am perplexed on the issue you raised with Islamists and the left. It is true that most liberals, in their zeal to see that all people be treated

equally and with respect, are a bit blinded by just how big a problem Islamism is. If you take polls at face value, http://www.pewforum.org/2013/04/30/the-worlds-muslims-religion-politics-..., you can arrive at some ugly

truths. Sam Harris is one of the few on the left calling out his fellow progressives for this major oversight in the name of acceptance and tolerance.

The percentage of ALL Muslims worldwide that believe in death for apostacy, that women (and homosexuals especially) are not equal to men, that believe

death is the appropriate punishment for adultery, etc is staggering. Harris puts the figure conservatively at 20% of all Muslims who are either Islamists

or Jihadists. That comes out to roughly 300,000,000 people. Yikes.

Anyway, my confusion arose in regards to your statement that acceptance and tolerance of Islamist culture is one way traffic. We liberals are far too eager

to cow tow to Islamist culture, while simultaneously being forced to change and adapt our western values. That's how I read your comment.

I'm not sure I agree with that. Can you elaborate?

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As I, a Christian, would of course denounce Jerry Falwell Jr. for tying up 18 people in a school and shooting them in the head.

I'm puzzled about why American Muslims don't oppose ISIS with more clarity.  Am I just reading the wrong newspapers?

....

EXCELLENT post LR.  :- )

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Montucky's picture

An ok writeup on Huffington post from November 2015 "What's Wrong with Rubio Comparing Muslims to Members

of the Nazi Party" speaks to this issue specifically. "I've heard it echoed countless times in the honest question, "Why don't Muslims speak out?" "

"By claiming Muslims are like Nazis, both Rubio and the 2007 chain message assert a dangerous, but latent, assumption: that ordinary Muslims and groups like ISIS have the same worldview, want the same things, share something fundamental and are part of the same "party" simply because of their shared religion.

"The injustice of a comparison like this comes into clear relief when we apply it to other religious groups. Do we assume Christians are part of the same camp as violent groups like the Ku Klux Klan, the Irish Resistance Army or the anti-Balaka militias in the Central African Republic, simply because they claim the moniker of "Christian?" Similarly, do we blame all Jews for attacks carried out by settlers in the West Bank? The answer is obvious: Of course not. Do we expect them to speak out against these acts, to prove they are un-Christian or un-Jewish? Never.

[...]

Finally, this narrative's emphasis on the complicity of a "silent majority," betrays the fact that all over the world Muslims have been emphatically denouncing groups like ISIS and Al-Qaeda, even when they shouldn't have to. From an online letter authored by over 100 prominent Muslim scholars to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the leader of ISIS, to the statements made by Muslim civic organizations and mosques worldwide, to the Facebook posts shared by ordinary students and parents, Muslims are "tripping over themselves" (as Jonathan Brown put it recently at the Parliament of World Religions) to distance themselves from violent entities with which they share virtually nothing but the identifier "Muslim." "

And I LOVE Sam Harris. What we expect from American Muslims is a double standard. I am guessing 20 % of christians would fit into unsavory category to, what's that prove? Your saying their religion is motivating them to be violent...well what's motivationg a bunch of gun toters/bombers doing outside an abortion clinic, one sentence in the bible. Crazy will always try to spin THE WORD, doesn't mean it fits or works. Harris points out that the quran has more than just one sentence, and I get that, but where does that leave you...afraid of muslims? Its fear based thinking...

Gimme some Murrow "...we are not decended from fearful men" and "The newest computer can merely compound, at speed, the oldest problem in the relations between human beings, and in the end the communicator will be confronted with the old problem, of what to say and how to say it."

Not my best work, but I feel strongly about protecting Muslim religious freedoms (though I'm not one); it would be un-American to act differently. Destroy me with grace. ;)

17

And thank you for your thoughtful attempt to follow my argument.

The left is very eager to point out any signs of intolerance by non-Muslims directed at Muslims, but very quick to apologize for Islam generally every time a radical does something unspeakable and no one in the moderate half of the faith says anything against them other than a few bloggers and such.  The left is also very quick to tar all southern Christians as intolerant and angry and bad citizens and such based on the actions of a relative few.  That is how I see it.  I also see towns allowing the Islamic call to prayer on public grounds but not the ten commandments, and airports making Islamic prayer spaces but not Christian ones.  And I see the left embracing the Boycott/Divest/Sanction movement based on accusations that Israel is "an apartheid state" despite their relatively fair treatment of Islamic Israeli citizens when compared with the brutality that Jews face in the rest of the Arab world - reporting on every Israeli attack against Palestinian settlements and studiously ignoring the tens of thousands of rockets hitting Israel from Palestine or the knife and gun attacks in their streets.

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As the EU begins tearing itself apart in a desperate attempt to be tolerant and welcoming, we find Angola Merkel handing Christian property over as Muslim settlement space, prosecuting people who are defending women from being raped in the street, and attempting to push legislation that would make it a very serious crime to say anything negative about the refugees.  I see gangs of radicalized men roaming and pilleging and raping and the european left burying their collective head in the sand...while making sure that the refugees are given free internet access, free places to live, free food and free medical care.  I am sorry if this makes me into some sort of xenophobe, but I believe, within thirty years, the EU will be utterly ruined by civil war.

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lr's picture

In your previous post you stated "The left is also very quick to tar all southern Christians as intolerant and angry and bad citizens and such based on the actions of a

relative few" while here you state "I see gangs of radicalized men roaming and pilleging and raping and the european left burying their collective head in the sand".

You shine a spotlight on the evils of a relatively small subset of European migrants, yet claim that progressives lump southern Christians all together into one unsavory

category and scrutinize as such.

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I made two factual statements.

1) The left (not every leftist, but the general commentary from the left) is quick to blame all of Christianity for the radical acts of a few.

2) The radicals entering Europe, embedded in the refugee wave, are forming gangs and causing a huge spike in criminality, esepcially violence against women, and the left ignores this or does its best to explain it away.  I believe most of the migrants entering Europe are just displaced people looking for somewhere better to be, but a large enough percentage of them are causing problems that Europe is increasingly turning to vigilante watch groups to protect women and many of the affected states are beginning to see political pushback.  It doesn't have to be a majority to be a huge problem.

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lr's picture

You just repeated what I quoted you as saying, which is essentially that the left characterizes the south as intolerant, bigoted, stupid etc and you see this as

unfairly prejudiced and doesn't leave room for nuance. In the next breath you go on to abhor the actions of the packs of roaming sinister Islamic migrants

without giving context to the percentage of radicals "raping and pillaging" to the population of migrants as a whole. This seems like fairly straight forward

selective criticism.

I'm not oblivious to the fact that crime rates are spiking with the influx of migrants. I read and see the same stuff you do generally. I just think you are

too eager to focus on the mistakes the left is making in dealing with the problem rather than calling a fair game on both sides.

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Even when I specifically say...SPECIFICALLY...say...that I don't believe the gangs represent the majority of migrants...something I rarely hear from the left regarding the south.

Whatever.  You can have the last word.

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lr's picture

I see that you aren't saying all these migrants are criminals. I get that. That's not what I'm arguing about.

My objection was that you paint liberals with a broad brush, that you never see them clarify that not all southerners/Christians are the same. Then you went on to say the things you said about the migrants raping and pillaging without mentioning how small a minority of them are doing those sorts of things. You have since added that specific context to your thoughts, but you hadn't until someone had raised the seeming hypocrisy of blaming one side for painting in broad strokes as a general practice while simultaneously doing the same for a different group of people.

I mean go back and read the initial comment you made on this subject, comment 15. You said Merkel is handing over Christian property to Muslims, passing laws to make hate speech a serious crime, gangs of radicalized men are roaming and raping and pillaging, blaming it soley on the European left, they're being given free internet, free rooms, free medical care, there's going to be a massive civil war on the horizon, etc. No where in that analysis are you providing any context of any kind. It all comes across as fearful, doomsdays scenario, us vs them rhetoric. It really does.

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...which ones were not accurate (other than where I clearly indicate that I am speculating into the future).

Merkel is handing over Christian property.  Many EU states are giving migrants enormous access to free housing, healthcare, food, internet access etc.  There are serious problems with criminality...there have been armed rape sprees, looting, and violent attacks.

I never blamed these attachs on the EU left...I don't know where you got that.  I blamed the attacks on the attackers.  I blamed the EU left for having no response to these sorts of crimes...for not upholding, first and foremost, the rule of law.

I, personally, believe the EU is headed for widespread civil unrest and possibly even war.  I'm sorry you find that believe offensive.

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lr's picture

I'm not arguing whether or not they're giving people free internet, whether or not rape and violence has risen since the influx of migrants. That's totally

not the point. If you're reading my comment and the take away is that I'm disputing what is happening in Europe right now then I don't know how else to

articulate it.

Lets say, for example, I come into this thread and starting giving all the black on black violence statistics, gang violence breakdowns, % of blacks on welfare, % of blacks with single parent homes, % of black incarceration, and then when someone goes, geez man, you really have a one sided view on this thing and I go, where did I say something that isn't true...do you see where I'm going with this? Your rhetoric is dramatic and the facts you provide about are one sided, they come across as divisive rather than helpful or instructive, and they have a fearful us vs them tone. I'm surely not the only one reading them and getting that vibe.

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To appease you, I would have to:

1) never make a case for something that you didn't agree with

2) make that case, but always make the exact opposite case while I'm doing it to prove I'm fair

3) never state facts that are dramatic

or

what?

I'm half-kidding, lr...but honestly, I can't state any more clearly that I recognize that the problem of radical Islamism is not a problem involving every Muslim or even the majority of them.  I can't state any more clearly that I'm making the case as to why I believe the EU and the US are in trouble if the left won't join the right and standing firmly against lawlessness and moral codes that are antithetical to our cherished belief in democracy, egalitarianism, and personal liberty (as Sharia is).  I'm not going to make that case by making the opposite case.  It is called debate.  I bring up things that support my side...you bring up things that support your side...we discuss! :)

I believe radical Islamism is a huge problem for the world and I believe that the political left in both the EU and America are, generally, refusing to see how big a problem it really is.  I've brought up the facts that support my belief.  Do you enter every philosophical or political argument complaining that the other side has a different opinion than you and how dare they present only arguments backing their position?  I don't believe that you do...why do it here?  Please - show me where the left in the US has strongly defended southern US culture...use the soaring rhetoric of your choice...I can take it.  Please...show me where the modern Southern US has played host to an act of barbarism where the left didn't immediately go into a spasm of self-congratulatory rhetoric about how the act proves how barbaric/hateful/racist/backward the south is?  Because I haven't seen anything lately...I really haven't...and I would be most grateful to see it...it would buoy my faith in humankind.  (I mean that honestly, not sarcastically)  Please...show me where the left has reacted as strongly to radical Islam as they have to the Tea Party.  They are quick to call the Tea Party terrorists...the leaders of the democrat party!...not some low-down members...the leaders.  But it took them weeks to declare the Tennessee shooting as a terrorist attack.  That's all I'm saying.

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lr's picture

I did edit my last comment right after I posted it to include the example of the black crime statistic giver, I hope you saw that before you responded as I feel that was a decent example at what I'm trying to get across.

Basically what I'm saying is this: You don't have to argue both sides of an argument, but you're almost always arguing from the same side. The right wing, conservative, side. That's fine. You're a conservative, I'm a liberal, that's fine and dandy. But I feel you are blinded by partisan loyalties at times. I feel you get caught up defending your party or attacking the other just on the basis of who said what. The Kerry quotes are a good example. There are examples in this thread as well.

So my suggestion, since you asked for it, is to say 3 things that are wrong with conservative politics. :) Really, go ahead.

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If I'm to be accepted as someone rational, I must admit how terrible my politics are.  YAY!!!

Now...if you want me to name three things wrong with the GOP, that is really quite easy.  I'm conservative, but I'm not a republican and have little interest in "defending my party" since I don't have one.

I believe the GOP suffers from more than three huge problems, but I'll give you the first three that come to mind.

1) They do not project a coherent, unifying vision of what a society would look like should they construct one unopposed.  They leave people thinking that they are opposed to things, but not in favor of other things...and even when they discuss what they want, it isn't in the form of how what they want will address real problems many of us are facing.  Conservative scholars do this regularly, but the politicians do not.

2) They spend far too much time worrying about what the media thinks of them and focus-group-testing what they will say and do.  The media is hostile to conservatives (other than Fox) right now, they have to overcome this problem not by combating the media angrily, not by avoid confrontations with the media, and not by giving up their principles...but by going around the media and making their case directly to the people.

3) They frequently get caught up in kicking around political footballs instead of picking the battles that they can actually win at a given time and fighting for those.

I don't believe there is anything particularly wrong with the underpinning core philosophy of Americanism (which is the philosophy that conservatives wish to conserve).  Read Dennis Prager's book on the subject of Americanism, Leftism, and Islamism to get a clear definition of what I mean by Americanism.  Their methods for achieving that goal, however, are frequently lacking in field vision.

And...like all political parties...they serve financial backers...it is an ugly reality of the politics of a republic.  It means that their principles sometimes get lost to the needs of their sponsors.  Which is why the tea party even exists, although I do not consider myself a member of that group.

I don't believe I am "caught up" defending a party...I believe my arguments regarding Europe's fate are grounded in history and human nature...and I believe that we will watch a lot of very bad things unfold unless the left realizes, in time, that they will not survive the rise of Islamism without a fight.

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lr's picture

I appreciate that you took the time to lay out some common complaints about the GOP, but, having observed in the past that you don't identify as Republican but rather conservative, I asked you to name 3 things you don't like about conservative politics. Would the 3 things you charged at the GOP apply to your sense of your own conservative politics?

Assuming Trump doesn't get the nomination, would you vote for any of the other 8 or 9 top candidates over Sanders? How about over O'Malley, assuming he were still in the race?

And yes, why do you scoff at the notion that one be able to identify weaknesses in their own beliefs or values as a sign of rationality? Isn't that the definition of rationality? Puzzling you'd consider that a strange test.

30

What are the weaknesses in YOUR beliefs?

I scoff at the notion that, to be considered fair-minded to you, I am supposed to present the foundations of my belief system, which I have very carefully formed over many years of study and thought, as deeply flawed.  I do not believe that it is.  I don't think you believe your belief system is deeply flawed either.  If your goal was to paint my as closed minded, I don't intend to play your game.  Think whatever you like - it's a free country.

I believe conserving the principles of Americanism is an excellent foundation upon which to build a political philosophy, particularly when paired with my heritage in Catholic scholarship and philosophy.  I will not apologize for having that conviction.

As for your follow-on questions:

If Trump gets the nomination, I will vote SMOD (Sweet Meteor of Death), regardless of which democrat he opposes.  If Cruz, Rubio or Fiorina (very unlikely) got the nomination, I would vote for them gladly, regardless of their democratic opponent.  If Sanders is the nominee, I am committed to defeating the notion that socialism is ever a good idea - wherever it is tried, it ruins lives and societies, meaning my threshold for holding my nose and voting for less-favored candidates would lower.  If Clinton is the nominee, I would hold my nose only for Kasich, Bush (ugh) or Paul, and would likely vote SMOD if Christie somehow got the nod.  Carson is an interesting case, because I like him as a person, but not as a politician, so I am not certain what I will do.  O'Malley is an unmitigated failure at everything he touches, and didn't much impress me on the issues in the democratic debates, but I would still find him less disturbing that Sanders or Clinton.

And...would the things I charged at the GOP apply to me?  I'm not a politician and do not always communicate my vision for a better world in the most skilled way, so that charge sticks.  But I don't give a rip what someone who is never going to like my politics thinks of my politics, and I don't focus group test what I'm going to say.  Which is why I'd never succeed in politics.

The weaknesses in my own belief system?  It won't appeal to someone who doesn't believe that faith can be built on reason, ergo it is hard to persuade others at a universal level.  It recognizes that not all problems can be solved by government and, thus, leaves some problems to the people (meaning it accepts some negative consequences in exchange for other positives).  And I, personally, have the failing (which I confess every week to a priest) of despairing of the trajectory of our culture too much.  If you despair too much, you will become inwardly focused...hope is the great motivator of social progress, not despair.  Which is why my fiction writing, as yet unpublished but in progress, focuses on the critical importance of hope.  I am, in some sense, trying to convince myself to remain hopeful.

I don't take that as a failing of the philosophy...just of the man.

32

lr is absolutely right here...but it's a lot more than Sam Harris.  Beyond the election mania, this is a very hot topic on the left.  In particular, there is the phenomenon of some fraction of feminists reflexively condemning the people who 'stereotype' islam...while at the same time ignoring that there is perhaps no organization on Earth more damning and lethal to women than Islam.  (Well, I guess Boko Haram gives them a run for their money).  

Which I guess is yet another example of why we shouldn't describe any group in absolute terms--a statement that describes 'all xxxx' as one way or another is probably going to veer considerably wide of the truth.

33

I didn't say every leftist on planet Earth makes excuses for radical Islam while punishing all Christians for their radical members.  For example, Bill Maher has been absolutely slicing and dicing the stupidity of the loudest left-leaning voices on Islam for some time now (and I respect his intellectual consistency and honesty despite generally disagreeing with him on the subject of religion 'versus' reason).

I'm aware that there is dissent from the mainstgream lines of thought, but I hang out with a lot of leftists (I belong to conservative writer groups and such, but I also belong to science fiction fan groups, which are overwhelmingly run by radical leftists, for example).  And I also watch what their leading voices say every day.  Obama threw an absolute HISSY FIT when he had to give a speech where he declared the San Bernadino terror attack what it was...Islamic terrorism.  He wanted the speech to be a diatribe against the gun lobby, but his handlers forced him to at least address the issue of terrorism, knowing how the American people were feeling at the time.  John Kerry claimed that the Charlie Hebdo massacre was "understandable" because they insulted the Prophet Muhammed.  The EU is putting people in prison for speaking out against this flood of refugees and their tendency to be associated with huge surges in criminality, especially against women.  The UK is considering banning Donald Trump from the country for saying he wanted to pause Islamic immmigration in the US (a policy I find abhorrant...there's a reason I despise Donald Trump).  The feminist movement, but for a few voices (some who have been showing up at Islamic events buck naked with anti-Islamic sentiments written on their breasts in marker...just saying, I'm aware of the other side here. :) ) is busy making excuses for Islam while applauding efforts to attack and silence the Catholic Church.  Sandra Fluke is a hero to the feminist left because she went to a Catholicf university and sued them to pay for her birth control.  All across Europe, there are movements to force Catholic churches to remove crosses from their schools.  In Italy, they covered classic nude sculptures to avoid offending the supreme leader of Iran...I could go on, but I'd be here all day.

34
lr's picture

Where Obama threw a hissy fit having to call San Bernadino an Islamic terror attack. I've seen this type of accusation tossed at him before from the

right (and specifically on this site), that he doesn't use harsh enough terms. Can you link me up?

Also, would love to see the Kerry quote in full context where he labeled the Charlie Hebdo attacks as understandable. Link me to that too? Would really

appreciate the leg work man.

35

http://www.mediaite.com/online/john-kerry-charlie-hebdo-attack-had-legit...

There's John kerry explaining how the Charlie Hebdo attack had legitimacy and rationale behind it but the Paris attack did not.  Mmm...kay...

Having trouble finding the post-San-Bernardino commentary about Obama not being at all amused with the speech writers, but I've put out a call to my other politically-active friends around the web...I'll report back shortly.


36

He corrected himself on 'legitimacy' in mid-sentence.  Why take that out of context?'

'Rationale'--yes, but Merriam Webster defines that: an explanation of controlling principles of opinion, belief, practice, or phenomena.

In other words, not 'rational'--just a reason for doing something.

37

To my ears, it sounds like his first word was the most sincere and the correction was an attempt to avoid political grief.  But sure...we can all interpret things differently.

I'm not going to be dragged sideways in this discussion when the larger point remains.  The left has a serious Islam problem.  The leaders and spokespeople for the left spend far too much of their time rationalizing away the negative elements, apologizing for the political and cultural failures of the Islamic nations of the world, and ignoring the great harm their more radical elements do (while never requiring the less radical groups to take a stand against these violent attacks).  I promise...I will try to see things from your perspective, as well, here...but from my perspective...I see a very...very serious problem in this world...a problem that could well lead to a global war on a scale we've never seen before...I see a clear enemy combatant and I see absolutely ZERO resolve on the part of the developed nations of the world to fight that combatant aggressively.  I see an American and European left that is far more worried about acts of retribution by their own citizens against innocent Muslims than about the attacks themselves or the demands many of even the supposedly moderate groups like CAIR place on our culture to adapt to service them without themselves adapting.  And I don't like what I see.

38

James (who voted for Obama twice) conceded that Obama "speaks much more harshly of Republicans than he does of ISIS," quote unquote.  He followed up by saying the #1 complaint he has against Obama is the rhetoric he uses against Americans who disagree with him.

I don't think you can follow Hillary or Obama without grokking that their real passion, their real enemies, are fellow Americans who don't agree with them.  That's when they are "live."

39
lr's picture

To read this quote from Kerry and see it as endorsing or excusing in any way the Paris attacks is purely a result of partisan preferences. He's clearly describing

the rationale behind the terrorist attack, not giving endorsement to said rationale. And you're not even providing the full quote, just a tiny

exerpt from the full speech he gave. He goes on immediately after this to say

"This Friday was absolutely indiscriminate. It wasn’t to aggrieve one particular sense of wrong. It was to terrorize people. It was to attack everything that we do stand for. That’s not an exaggeration. It was to assault all sense of nationhood and nation-state and rule of law and decency, dignity, and just put fear into the community and say, “Here we are.” And for what? What’s the platform? What’s the grievance? That we’re not who they are? They kill people because of who they are and they kill people because of what they believe. And it’s indiscriminate. They kill Shia. They kill Yezidis. They kill Christians. They kill Druze. They kill Ismaili. They kill anybody who isn’t them and doesn’t pledge to be that. And they carry with them the greatest public display of misogyny that I’ve ever seen, not to mention a false claim regarding Islam. It has nothing to do with Islam; it has everything to do with criminality, with terror, with abuse, with psychopathism – I mean, you name it."

http://www.state.gov/secretary/remarks/2015/11/249565.htm

40
GLS's picture

I'd be interested in more information on some of these statements you've made.

41

1) I consider Trump an independent and an opportunist -- not unlike Bill Clinton in that respect.

1a) The reason is stated by Glenn Beck (who is not my favorite analyst).  A 21st-century Republican, for me, is one who authentically believes in the vision of the Founding Fathers, and the Constitution, and who won't negotiate that principle.

2) People vote Republican for different reasons.  Evangelicals are very different from those who vote Republican because of money issues.  Who are different from those who want to avoid an Islamo-Europe West.

3) No.  GOP voters will poll based on what they see as the greatest threat to our heritage:  humanism, or immigration/terrorism/gerrymandering, or the welfare state, or whatever.

42
GLS's picture

Can you elaborate on 1a? I'm curious what you think the vision of the founding fathers was and how that should translate to our modern era and what that means in terms of principles that shouldn't be open to negotiation. 

44

Great to see a return of KK – missed it – and even better, one that helps me maintain some interest in the proceedings of the two major parties, a condition lacking on my part so far this century. It all seemed so cut and dried, and cynical. I missed Reagan and Clinton and their ability to articulate some semblance of a vision. Of course there was a pretty big gap between rhetoric and reality, but hey, you gotta start somewhere. And now, we actually have some personality, in 3D and in Technicolor® in the serious chase. I thought both Bernie and the Donald would be long gone by now, spluttering on the sidelines “look at me” and waving frantically. But that fate has escaped them so far and I am beginning to think a dream matchup of Sanders vs Trump may actually happen.

It may seem that now it is I who am cynical. My defense is that the US has a very large mass, and to change its direction even slightly requires a great deal of energy (or a world war). Sanders is a senator, and presumably has a competent working knowledge of how things do and don’t get done. Trump has been successful in both business and entertainment -- a rare accomplishment, like a physician also being good at business, but it does happen – and surely understands how levers of power and persuasion need to be pulled. I do not think either one of them will prove to be nearly as radical as they appear, but I do think their ability and courage to communicate and lead will be helpful in the long run. 

45

Putting down my marker, I guess:

For what it's worth ...

I’m thinking Rubio could win a clear victory tonight and be the only candidate in the 30s.  If that doesn’t fall into place, then close 3-way with Trump, Cruz, Rubio all in the 20s.

 Either way, probably catapults Rubio to frontrunner.  That’s bad news for Dems.

46

Rubio is our best choice on the right...and is surging at the right moment in Iowa as Ted Cruz deals with a few minor scandals in the state.  Rubio absolutely DEMOLISH the democrat nominee, whoever they are, in a general election...may be the biggest margin of victory since Reagan.

47

Mmmmm...I'm not so sure about that. Both Cruz and Rubio have the same problem - they are both guys that have only ever wanted to be politicians their entire adult lives. They are both career politicians - albiet with much shorter careers than either Democrat. Cruz vs Sanders would be a toss-up but I don't see either getting the nomination. Rubio vs Sanders tilts Rubio's way, although the millenials might turn out for Bernie in unprecendented numbers. A Rubio vs Clinton would be "young inexperienced career politician with no track record vs old, experienced politicians with a long track record". I'm not sure that's a slam-dunk for the GOP. Neither of them is particularly likeable outside Team Party circles so the "likeability" gap will only be real for the partisans that aren't in play anyway. No play there. 

Republicans will vote for whoever the GOP nominee is. Democrats will vote for whoever the Democrat nominee is. The election will be decided by the thinning group of independents and may well come down to turnout. THe Democrats have an advantage there in a presidential election year, especially with their leading cnadidates. Women will turn out for Hillary in unprecedented numbers and millenials will do the same for Bernie. In a year when the country kind of dislikes them all, that might be all it takes. 

48

If it's Rubio vs. Clinton, it would be young, charismatic, positive-toned career politician without a track record of doing evil things vs. old, tired, angry-sounding career politician with a long track record of doing evil things.

Sorry...Rubio might win 60+% of the vote in that scenario.

49

AFTER the Iowa caucuses, the above things started to occur to me.  What insight.

So, Jim, what's next?  :- )  Seriously.

50

More snide than I usually get, but this is Konspiracy Korner, so forgive me: If Catherine Herridge were not on Fox News and were single-handedly applying a thousand cuts to a different person via outright acts of journalism, then Hollywood would have already bought up the rights to make an Oscar-worthy film of her sainthood.  Only issue would be whether Meryl Streep or Sandra Bullock would get the part.

Instead, she's just gradually crushing Team Hillary like a python, in relative anonymity.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/02/01/official-withheld-clinton-emails-contain-operational-intel-put-lives-at-risk.html

The line of defense is down to: The little minions behind the curtain didn't "mark" it for her ... 

Whatever your partisanship, you gotta admit that's all she's got.

Lawyers somewhere are trying to figure out how to strong-arm a Biden nomination out of thin air?

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