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It's a whale of a contest. The Times is asking its readers, Who will be the M's platoon 1B on Opening Day? The Sur-Vey Sez:
- 43.8% = Jesus Montero
- 42.5% = Dae-ho Lee
- 0.0002% = Some other outcome
Captured under that 0.0002% is Prospect Insider, which remains the voice of the field-level crosschecker. They've got an inkling that you just can't afford the lack of glovework to keep a dedicated 1B along with Lind. The Times' sports staff has not been alerted to this restriction, and Dr. D would smilingly ask DiPoto with which side he aligns.
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BaseballHQ, going into 2016, still sees a smidge of Albert Pujols-age in Montero:
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"The ultimate cage match between Once You Display a Skill, You Own It and Fool Me Twice, Shame On Me. .899 OPS in 3+ months at AAA renewed hope, before he posted a .661 OPS after promotion. BUT THERE IS SOMETHING HERE! xCTx, xPX, age all beg for one more chance."
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Their caps, not mine. The first "shouting" that Dr. D ever recalls seeing in an HQ book :- )
The xCTx is hard-hit ball rate times contact rate. How often you barrel the ball up with authority; Montero's was 134 last year. If you just joined us, Tony Blengino (bless his heart) has just about reduced all of sabermetrics to this idea. It's an important one.
PX, power index, looks behind last year HR's and doubles to predict what HR's and doubles we'll get this year. xPX, expected power index, looks behind PX in turn. LOL. Is there any limit to the number of times we can derive a baseball formula... Montero's xPX was 122 last year, after he got in shape. It had been 90'ish before.
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Steve Clevenger is listed as a first baseman (also) on the M's depth chart. SSI has been enjoying the far more relevant updates we get these days: Check this one out. It's definitely worth a smile at 1B and, amusingly, Tony Zych was promoted since Dr. D started crying about Zych's spot on it. Point was ... what was the point ... oh yeah! This depth chart would imply some games in which Iannetta and Clevenger were both starting, would it not?
As a separate issue, Servais would be better off if he could pinch-hit Clevenger and Iannetta for each other when the game is truly on the line. I wonder what Servais' feelings are about Montero serving as an EMERGENCY catcher. I know what my feelings would be.
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What would be the precedent for Jesus Montero becoming a star after this many years wallowing in dry dock? ... well, every late bloomer in baseball history, in one sense. Adam Lind, in a more specific sense. Lind spent his age 26-27-28 seasons posting slash lines that Montero would have posted the last three years, like .250/.295/.420. Like Kung Fu Panda and the Wu Xi Finger hold, Lind figgered it out. He's spent three years batting .300'ish with big walks and a near-.500 slugging average. Jesus Montero, at this point, wouldn't mind an Adam Lind career and he's probably well capable. Given the chance.
Montero will be Age 26 With Experience, as John Benson put it. We've heard that a few times before, and we're tired of hearing it. But baseball is still going to see MOTO hitters jell later than we'd like.
Enjoy,
Dr D
