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Lookout Landing has a fine post that we can Exec Sum in three bullets:
This is bemusingly objective analysis, coming from a blog-o-sphere in which skeptical = objective = cool.
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We still remember an email that James kindly sent along twenty years ago: "Fassero is year-to-year, but could reasonably continue five more years." That'll do for us too. Cruz is sabermetrically due to roll off the top of the table at any time -- behold these b-ref comps -- but ...
... We do recall that Nelson Cruz, when last seen, was performing like a Hall of Fame cleanup hitter. .592 SLG in Safeco in the second half? Do you really think Manny Ramirez could slug .592 in Safeco Field?
April 2016 will be one month later than September 2015, in baseball terms. In the last three games of 2015, he had four hits and a home run. Lookout Landing gives 333 feet (!) as his average fly ball distance during the second half. LL ain't done there:
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As the season wore on, Cruz’s average exit velocity increased by 5.1 mph! His second-half mark of 95.7 mph would have ranked second in all of baseball, just behind Giancarlo Stanton. Not only was Cruz hitting balls farther in the waning days of summer, he was also hitting them harder.
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Imagine if that dude were playing Fenway.
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Here is Cruz' 40th homer last year. Derek Holland gives him a 95 MPH lefty fastball, and Cruz hits a 3-iron six rows deep into the right field seats. On the super slo-mo, savor the super-compact arc of Cruz' bat - it covers about 50% of the arc that Leonys Martin gets on a typical whuff.
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BaseballHQ has .273/.339/.506 as his projected slash line for 2016, with 34 jacks and 5.9 runs per 27 outs. And those dudes are h-e-a-v-i-l-e-e into regression. Albert Pujols is in there for .266/.325/.464.
Cruz' career arc is truly strange -- he was perceived as a journeyman #6 hitter until age 33. Then he hit his middle 30's and started leading the majors in home runs. James once said that with platypuses, you let them find their own limits.
Guess so,
Dr D
If I could dial up the '16 season and give him the B-R projections, right now, I think I would do it. .855 and 35 HR's is still a dang good year! It would look a lot like he did in '14 and that was a 137 OPS+ season.
We're likely dreaming if we assume there isn't any decline FOLLOWING '16 (unless he sipped from the Big Papi pool of youth), so this is the year to make hay with a still-bashing Cruz in the lineup.
Just saying. :)
This arc doesn't generally happen in the modern game...in fact it's so rare that it is not likely to be naturally occurring. Which means...unless and until he gets caught a second time, he should continue hitting.
SABR, I used to bet on horseracing in the United States.
You could look at trainers statistics, and a horses past performance, and try to figure the Ah-Ha for today's race.
Admittedly, users are always ahead of the narcs until the horse falls coming down the stretch.
Do, do you skip the race because you don't know the intentions, or what might be ciculating in the equines system masked by lasix or other legal drugs?
What "generally happens in the modern life (er, game) is statistical stew ... compared to what?
Broomstick will continue hitting because he's one of the few with enough ability and smarts to take advantage of a second chance, and he knows that he's not getting out from under the microscope, the picture of which you have aptly drawn.
He will be forced to try harder each year, but those aging stats are sometimes peek-a-boo.
He's gone through the car wash and has the towel guys smiling at him, and not just his ride.
Yeah, once a junkie always a junkie could still apply ... as everyone is strung out on something.
But, the personality in Baltimore and Seattle has shone on him popping out of a larger egg, kind of like those Russian goo-gaws, and he's feeding on it ... it's like a free range chicken egg where the chicken is outside in free range all day, not just for seven minutes.
He understands his nucleus, and how to feed on it.
And he likes the sunshine better than the coop.
You can't measure that until you've been in one.
zoom
OK...that was highly confusing.
Let me see if I understand your argument:
1) You believe that, because he's already been caught with PEDs, he has to be more careful NOT to use them (because they'll test him more often), and the fact that he has not been caught again suggests he's clean now.
2) You believe that the real reason for his jump in performance is a renewed optimistic approach at the plate, and not the performance enhancers (didn't understand any of the comments on horse racing, but that's probably just because I don't understand horse racing...:) )
Do I have that right?
If so, I'm not sure I totally buy it. It is certainly possible that he is visualizing more positively and, therefore, getting better results. I know such things do occur. But There isn't much evidence that the Cruz from 2011 or 2010 was a cranky, unpleasant fellow who didn't enjoy playing. Other than, perhaps, his injuries. :)
It is a known correlation, BTW...guys who are very injury prone and then suddenly are not very injury prone later in life are the ones most likely to be busted for PED use. I believe it is likely that Cruz used for an extended period to shake off all of his injuries...and that it made him a much better hitter...and that being a much better hitter made him happier.
But I understand the totality of it. I think you've invented a new Haiku form there Billy.
Tend to agree that Cruz' joy de vivre could be the X-Factor in his projection. Reminds you of Jay Buhner, who was stopped by injuries rather than by a slide in performance.
SABR, I concur that the PED's helped him physically overcome injury, and, if he hadn't gotten busted, still might be using them.
The Orioles only gave him a one year, low end contract for that "indiscretion" ... so, it cost him, and he prefers local hero and money and regained respect to finger pointing from others... enough so that the M's giving him more years and more money and now he's regained even more respect and it shows in his communication and character as well as his swing.
They're gonna let him play right field rather than confine him to DH ... because that's what he wants to do, and that respect will add to his performance ... even if it cuts defensive effectiveness and numbers in RF.
There might be some very interesting conversations between Cruz and management about such matters.
I hope I'm picking a winner here, as I like his move up in class ... and I don't think he'll take a chance at screwing himself again.
Yes, he could be living better through chemicals, but I doubt it.
It could be we haven't seen the top of his arc based on his early breakout last year.
We will see.
It was some Yankee catcher that said something about mentality possibly being important in performance.
zoom
I wouldn't discount stem cell therapy. MMA fighters are seeing some crazy results with stem cell therapy - shoulder injuries, knee injuries and the like. Joe Rogan talks about it occasionally on his podcast. We are talking champion-level fighters here - Connor McGreggor, Daniel Cormier, "Pitbull" Freire... It's not cheap - $10k-$15k/treatment and it seems to take two to fully heal - but for a professional athlete, that's not much if it can extend your career.