Seattle Sports Insider

What's the Target?

85 wins and a nice night at the ballpark, Dept.

Posted by

2/20/16

Jeff Sullivan answered this question in his Feb. 19th chat:

Aron: Eno was asked about this yesterday, but curious your thoughts as well. The Mariners and Brewers were used as examples – would you rather see your team try to retool and shoot for the mid-80s or go into rebuild mode and try to stockpile young talent? Are the Brewers or Mariners more likely to win the World Series in the next ten years?

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: I think the Mariners are more likely, because they’re the better team now, and that’s the only thing we can count on

9:33

Jeff Sullivan: My own perspective is that, while I could get behind a rebuild, my preference is to just try to consistently be decent enough. Even if it’s not the “right” model in the big picture, I get so bummed out by losing. All I want on any given day is a faint glimmer of hope that it could be a playoff season. Rebuilds take that away

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: In the NHL, I like the Senators, and the Senators are bad, but they’re just okay enough that I can keep clinging to the idea of a miracle run. I don’t want to give that up. Give me a half-decent product, with one or two players I really really like, and I’m satisfied

There was a related idea floated last week, that being (loosely paraphrased) "the M's have about 1-3 years before Cano is mediocre, Cruz is done, and Felix is considerably less effective. Then they'll be paying huge money and not getting production back for it, so they should be trying to win the World Series now. Unfortunately, they can't really win the World Series now."

A little perspective might be of use when pronouncing last rites before a club's pulse has ever slowed. Spotrac.com gives the following two payrolls as:

M's = $135M
Rays = $59M

And the Rays don't punt every season from here to as far as the eye can see. (PECOTA projects them to 91 wins again this year.) Why would $20 or $40 or $60M in dead money equal the end of the line for the M's? If you did everything wrong financially, then you'd wind up with the A's payroll leverage. And it's not like the Mariners have ever led the league in dead money.

.....

Both of these paradigms, the neo-Lookout Landing and the paleo-USSM, go to the question of --- > what really should a team be trying to DO?

The "classic saber" idea is: it should pile up young talent until it hits a Rays- or Astros-type configuration, and then it should spend money to complete the puzzle. But this of course is (1) based on the premise that Winning the World Series is the mathematically-correct target, the WHAT, and that (2) the "rebuild right" process is the mathematically-correct method for this, the HOW.

We will grant the basic light bulb that --- > if you develop several club-controlled Kyle Seagers and Taijuan Walkers and James Paxtons who are coming through for you, everything becomes a lot easier.

.....

That said, Dr. D agrees with Jeff Sullivan's (and Bud Selig's) concisely-worded target: HOPE. If the Mariners are playing a really meaningful weekend series in mid-August, that's Level I of Dr. D's definition of success for a baseball team. Too often, sabes have advised GM's and owners to "punt" seasons on Feb. 1. That's a lot of fan-hours flushed down the toilet, seems to me.

As of Feb. 20, 2016, Jerry DiPoto's 5x5 roto club looks hopeful to me. As opposed to a Jack Zduriencik attempt to wait out Prince Fielder into February, we would consider this offseason Mission Accomplished. We got hope.

.....

Once a team IS a contender - let's say they're +7 games over on July 30 - then it says here that they have the obligation to try sincerely to win a pennant. I wonder if, the M's being just off the pace on July 31 and missing One Key Piece, then Mather and DiPoto and Co. will make the big move July 31.

I've read most of what Mather and DiPoto have said. Not much in there gives an indication whether they would or not.

BABVA,

Dr D

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Comments

Go for the big move?

I think you can bet on it.

(These are best I can figure):

Chris Larson is 56, and John Stanton is 59. They have large stakes..and of course, should have time to watch the team for many years.

However,

Howard Lincoln is 75.

Craig Wiltjen is 79.

Frank Schrontz is 84.

John Ellis is 87.

I'm assuming none of these fine fellows is too worried about paying the mortgage. And I assume at this point any cash call would be promptly answered before their own 'window of competition' ends.

In fact, I think any worries along those lines evaporated with the contracts of Felix, Kyle, Cano and Cruz.

They are in.

Well...

Well, to make a "big move" mid-season you have to have "big prospects" to trade and right now the M's minor league system is devoid of the kind of premium talent it would take to make a truly big move. Maybe someone would take quantity over quality or maybe the pitching all stays healthy and you could use Paxton or Karns as trade-bait but I don't see either.

My guess is DiPoto would go for another steady, mid-range guy to plug a hole. An Aoki/Wade Miller kind of guy to paper over a black-hole somewhere. That's certainly his M.O.

... seems logical ... Window?!?

You both make sense to me.

On a side note, if the Orioles pick up Fowler, they're going to be over $160 million, bigosh bigolly. Does my heart good to see them and the Royals spending money. Heck, even the Marlins, in their serially incompetent manner, have been spending money, if herki-jerkily, over the past few years.

I also wanted to add that I don't really believe in this "window of opportunity" meme. A healthy and vibrant baseball organization should yearly be coughing up 2-3 guys to the major-league team, plus 2-5 blocked guys for trade bait. So, yeah, I get that people are talking about big contracts and the team's ability to add around them. But then the window really refers to our perception of the team's willingness and ability to pay out for another big contract.

Everything else is constantly changing-actually, even that changes, as we see from my examples above. But my larger point is that I think the other variables are too numerous and potent to say that any team will be or should be declining at a certain point in time. To wit,

What if--

-Walker and Paxton both become legit #1s who re-sign/extend with Seattle?

-Zunino emerges along with Marte and Powell, and M's are rock-solid up the middle for the foreseeable future?

-Etc. That's two somewhat plausible potential scenarios just from a small pile of the few facts we know. For all we know, the M's Great Breakout Guys of 2018 are already in the system (O'Neill, the Jacksons?) (SMILEY FACE). I think that a dynamic GM such as DiPoto should never let a team's window close.