Seattle Sports Insider

Noise

this ain't going to be the most exciting road trip ever

Posted by

2/22/16

Input/Output: Bill James' Second Law says that baserunners should be smart, rather than aggressive. Hitters, tighten your zones. Pitchers, don't push your arms. And runners, stop getting thrown out. That's forty years' research talking. Three fortune cookies, crisp and served with sweet tea.

Input/Output 1a: the TNT quotes Servais to the effect that M's baserunners will be aggressive, at least in March, at least-least to "find out what they can do." This gentlemen, is truly "Noise."

CRUNCH: What Leonys Martin can do is average 32 steals vs 10 not-steals per season.

Don't forget to tip the waitresses, Scott. No, seriously, if there's one item you do NOT need twenty new March games' inspection on, wouldn't it be rounding the bases? ... :: shrug :: No big deal.

In 2014, Martin had a 159 Speed Index. For comparative purposes, compare the 147 that Wile E. Coyote gets with an Acme rocket tied to his back. You cancel the fractions on Martin's SB's, CS's, and 1st-to-3rd, and he adds about +7 runs per season directly attibutable to his Acme rockets.

OK, the M's can to shoot for +10 runs from King Leonydas. Totally cool by Dr. D. As they say in chess, "You've got to give your opponent a chance to make a mistake!" and if you've never seen an Orc right fielder throw a baseball into his own dugout, you are simply missing out on the finer things in life.

....

There is Leonydas, and then there is the Mariners. If you pull up a Mariner list of "Baserunner Runs Gained" for 2015, it is unpossibly feeble. Ketel Marte led with +0.6 runs gained ('led' !) and then numbers 2, 3, 4 were Rickie Weeks (!!), O'Malley and the Logo. So apparently there is margin for errors here, preferably the Angels' errors.

Chris Taylor, Nori Aoki, and Marte seem to be very fine candidates for 60-80 stolen bases apiece. They gained +0.1, -1.6 and the +0.6 runs last season with their legs. Otherwise it's amazing how slow the Mariners still are: Cruz -3 runs, Seager -3 runs, Cano nil, Smith minus, Lind LOL, the catchers ... at least we've got a slimmed-down Dae-ho Lee.

Hey, the 1988-92 Bash Brothers had Rickey and a bunch of roided-out sluggers. I don't see what's wrong with one speedburner to a team. As long as my man Dae-ho remembers it's one man to a pair of pants. ... Dr. D should talk.

Corollary: Hey Bill just screwed in a light bulb for us. It was to the effect that [Pitchers Holding Runners] may in fact DOMINATE pitcher fielding. Haven't looked it up, but am going to assume that Miley-Paxton-Taijuan-Felix-Iwakuma are average solid here, each for their own reasons ... being lefty, being tremendous athletes with quick feet, being technicians. Somebody check me on that.

Dr's R/X: It says here that the M's best strategy is to sit back, Earl-esque, and let other teams flush their runs down the toilet between 1B and 2B. Boring but good. "Give me a lineup full of Frank Robinsons - Nelson Cruzes and I'll show you how easy managing can be."

Enjoy,

jemanji

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Comments

Earl

He once said something about Dr. Longball fixing much of what ails a team. That was Z's roster construction philosophy, come to think of it.

Martin and Marte can motor. Booger and O'Malley can, too, to a lesser degree. Of course, it is possible those guys are farmhands on opening day. The bigger issue is not running yourself out of innings, that is more important than running yourself into runs. See the '15 M's, if you need an example.

3 decades ago, Doc....didn't BJ write about the 75% threshhold on attempted stolen bases? Anything less than such a success rate was costing you lots of runs. The number of steals was less important than the SB %.

Those great Oriole teams, '69-'74 succeeded between 64%-70% if the time. From '69-'72 Earl usually ran only about 120 times a year (M's attempted 114 last year), but in '73-'74 he changed his tune and the O's ran 210 and 203 times. The Old Dog Earl learned a new trick. Bumbry, Baylor (who had wheels) and Coggins might do that for you.

I hadn't realized Earl's change of philosophy until I just was checking out his team's success rate. Interesting....

"Look instead to Dr. Longball and his asst, Professor Three-Hit"

Ya. LOL.

I remember the SB break-even point as 67-70%; I think Pete Palmer gave the runs gained from an SB at around +0.30 and the runs lost from a CS about -0.60.

But that's cut from a fairly rough-hewn board. Not considered are factors like "does the pitcher get out of synch worrying about Martin if he's still on 1B" and "what if Sonny Gray is out there and you can't score except through a manufactured run" and etc.

All the stats say that SB's correlate badly with runs scored and wins, but I hae me doots.

.....

Still, the takeaway is that Jerry DiPoto said one thing "we'll get athletic", and did another. That's not a criticism, just an observation.

Hard to argue

It is hard to argue that we got much more "athletic" defensively. Well. Martin is a big improvement (certainly).....but Aoki is no glovey wonder in RF, based on dWAR. On the other hand, the only real place Dipoto could rack up some defensive saves, minus CF and RF is LF.

So there you go. We're better in CF (maybe a bunch) and some better in RF.

We likely aren't winning the division on defensive improvement.

But getting "more athletic" might mean more than defense and speed. Actually speed is a pretty poor way to determine "athleticism." Were it the case, Usain Bolt would play in the NBA and bat leadoff for the Cardinals, winning a GG for playing CF. 'Tis not the case, however.

I think Dipoto, a smart guy, occassionally falls (like many a GM) into the cliche potholes of the sport.

Because if he didn't, then it indicates that he thinks Nelson Cruz, a terrible baserunner and lousy fielder, isn't an "athlete."

That's a narrow description.

If the NBA is the ultimate "athlete's game," is Dipoto (and every other GM) saying that Clyde Drexler (a sensational leaper with great speed) is a better "athlete" than Larry Bird. one of the best to ever play the game?

I'm wandering, I suppose. But the whole "athletic" definition that is commonly used eats me up sometimes.

On improved athleticism

I agree that athleticism is more than speed and defensive ability, but can't say that DiPoto meant it as such when talking about improving the outfield. 1b and C are the only other spots that change seemed necessary and athletic is not a word that describes most of the best at either position.

Either way, Aoki is an improvement over last year at the position and is a great fit for priority#1:C the Z. Smith was already here but only through this year. Guti remains a good fit for a roster spot. But Aoki and Martin (Guti,if you get technical) are not the only outfielders he's acquired. Fast-Forward to 2017 and we could be watching the athletic outfield rotation of Aoki,Martin,Powell and Heredia. Aoki moves from maybe 2nd best defender to probably 4th best if things roll that way. It also added to the depth this year as one of Boog or Gil are likely to get some time this year. We could easily see 700+ quality innings in MLB parks between them this year. Hopefully that would be because they earned it and not because of the combination of misfortune and lack of an actually ready OF option. I could be wrong in thinking that Powell is very likely to be up for good sometime this year. Martin could help his fellow countryman, Heredia, acclimate to the cultures of US and MLB. I'm more excited to see him than anyone else in spring broadcasts, because there's your big wildcard. He could just hit the ground running, all the way to the playoffs. I'm not counting on it.

What happens if both appear ready to contribute with leather and wood through the spring? I'm not seeing people anywhere suggesting any chance for either to break with the club, but I have to think it exists.

The hitting of Powell and maybe more so Heredia may not be what we'd like in a corner immediately or ever. For that reason (and the chance that Heredia is still developing) it seems more likely that not all 3 of Martin, Powell and Heredia would be with the team next year. But athleticism has definitely been acquired for the OF, even if some of it isn't ready to be utilized. Whether they can produce offensively is the main question for all 3 of them, but the athleticism is there regardless of how you define it.

Translating athleticism to the box score

Q is amigo - if it doesn't show up in bases gained, running from 1B to 3B, or in running down batted balls, how does athleticism affect the scoreboard in baseball?

Not challenging this - just wondering. Not sure where 'athleticism' gets you in baseball, other than footspeed.

....

Hand-eye coordination (contact ability) could be captured under the umbrella of 'athleticism,' but I doubt that's what DiPoto meant by the term.

I think you're correct

Dipoto most likely meant simply speed and defense. Baserunning, routes, zone judgement and timing/judging when to go on a pitcher/catcher are more mental and actually coachable (to varying degrees),unlike athleticism.

Hand-eye coordination is harder to pin down as merely athletic or how teachable it is. It is definitely athletic but it seems to me kind of a blend of mental and physical.

the max-defense OF

++ Fast-Forward to 2017 and we could be watching the athletic outfield rotation of Aoki,Martin,Powell and Heredia. Aoki moves from maybe 2nd best defender to probably 4th best if things roll that way. ++

This is an interesting point.

And in 2001 the M's had two gold-glove quality CF's playing together, although both could hit too. Definitely worth considering, that DiPoto may need to build an athletic team the same way he needs to build a minor league system.

Jury isn't even deliberating yet

on Heredia hitting, there's still cases to be made. Same for Boog if not as much. But Cameron, Winn and Ichiro (Javier, Mclemore,etc.) would be too high an expectation, definitely. I think I'd take our infield over 2001 though. Rotation too.