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Jim Moore is an old-school beatwriter and he's got an excellent piece up today. In it, he frankly admits that he personally is annoyed by the idea of giving a bullpen spot to the #6 starter.
More and more, I appreciate it when a "journalist" confesses the point of view from which he is coming. For far too long, media people have "reported" their opinion-slanted takes while trying desperately to convince us that any credentialed NYT reporter is by definition a completely blank slate. Per this little device, you've got America drowning under a river of propaganda pieces that the readers assume to be nothing but facts-reporting. It happens on a much smaller scale in sports than in Presidential campaign, but it's still got the wrong scent.
Of course, Moore's refreshing "full disclosure" does not make him unable to report news; he had his world view before he told us what it was, and he'll have it after he told us what it was. Also of course, that's not the only cool thing about his quasi-Op Ed. But he sez
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Another wrinkle was added to the competition Thursday when general manager Jerry Dipoto said that Paxton or Karns could still make the team as a reliever.
I didn't want to hear that news, but Dipoto explained that he wants to take the 12 best pitchers to Seattle, and if Karns and Paxton are in the top dozen, they'll both be on the major-league team.
The Mariners have already proven they will turn a starter into a reliever just like that with the move last week of Mike Montgomery to the bullpen. I guess you do what you have to do, particularly with players who are out of options, but I'm not so sure if that's what I'd do with Karns or Paxton.
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That was the phrase that Dr. D had been waiting for. "If he's in the top 12 pitchers, he'll be there Opening Day." But did DiPoto mean "top 12 pitchers in our camp" or "top 12 pitchers in the American League" or "top 12 lefties since WWII" or what did top 12 pitchers mean?
Youse guys seem, 80% or 90% or 100%, to prefer K-Pax in the rotation and Karns to the bullpen. I dunno; I've got an inkling that the other way would be more fun. Maybe because I think Karns is REALLLLLY good, and because I can visualize 98 MPH lefty out of the pen.
Don' matter. ... it's just until somebody gets hurt anyway.
...
As to the idea that Brandon Morrow should scare you off swing men ... :: shrug :: I dunno. How many counter-examples do you want? Johan Santana was a swing man his first 5 years (!!), right up until he decided to start going 20-6, 2.61 in the rotation. In 2001, the year the Mariners secured a (pseudo-)banner for their rafters, Santana started 4 games and finished 5.
But baseball history is stuffed with swing men. Earl thought that young guys should stay in the 'pen until he was sure about them starting the All-Star game. Brandon Morrow's psyche was lace-china fragile. Nate Karns', not so much.
...
In any case, there was a particular move these Mariners made that flipped the jazz switch ON for me this winter. It was the Adam Lind deal. ... now if we hear that Karns-Paxton will be joining the bullpen, Dr. D's feeling about it will be verrrrry Lindish. It would make Opening Day thrice the sheer FUN.
Enjoy,
Jeff
I love Paxton. Have not been very coy about it.
Karns I have not had the time to develop the lust for
But I would be MUCH more peeved if one of those guys (the lefty) was starting against Las Vegas or Albuquerue in early Aprl, rather than chucking against Detroit out of the pen.
I get, we get, much less value out of a guy striking out a Duke, in the first inning, than we do the same guy throwing high heat to 5 Tiger hitters in the 6th and 7th.
:: Kung Fu Panda talking to Monkey ::
How'd you like Mojician's thought on Paxton. That he could do with a few innings out of the 'pen, to just let the ball fly in Randy Johnson style.
I can see that, that Paxton is getting wrapped around the axle with advance scouting and "here are the blue zones on Shlabotnik" and yada yada yada. Guy like him should just grab the laces and bring it. Could be the RP stint just the tonic.
We mortals looks at a Felix or Kuma and think what they do is complicated, yet they mostly live in the simplicity of it.
"Hey James, throw it hard up around the letters," might be anice message for Paxton to hear.
For the life of me, I can't quite understand why he doesn't hear that a lot when he's starting. But I'll take it where I can get it.
Why would you take the position that starters should never be relievers? That I do not get.
After seeing Karns pitch live today, I have changed my mind. Paxton is not in sync yet...he needs to be protected much more than Karns does in terms of his psychological standing and his arm. Remember, folks, Paxton has a long career of starting out slow and erratic and grooving his way in. So let him groove his way in as a reliever. Karns might be nearly as good as Archer...yes I really mean that.
;- )
And you can drive from here. Heh. Seriously.
Of course, I got all excited about Brandon Maurer as a starter too. But Karns has a track record of success at starting in the big leagues, and that is combined with the real potential I see in his stuff. Dude has a better change-up and curveball than Archer does and a fastball just as live...the only difference is that his command of the fastball is not as good.
Moby: When has Paxton ever been a starter on whom you could rely?
Sabermath: When has Paxton ever stayed in sync?
Paxton might have placed himself on the endangered species listthree years ago, then two years ago, then last year ...yada yada yada.
Cerveza pointed out, after yesterday, that Paxton has earned nothing ... the manager does not believe in "sainthood potential".
Paxton is already practicing his annual el-foldo .... gee, golly, I just didn't (fill in the blank).
I rather doubt he has the fiber to be a reliever in the bigs, and until he finally shows the gumption (and stuff) for 10 successive scheduled starts in Tacoma he will have proven nothing.
A lefty with a burner over 95 is hard to find in dis American League. And, if he can, at least he is decent trade bait in July if the DePoet model has lost it's wheels for the year.
Prove up .... or prove out ... in Tacoma. He is still a prospect as far as accomplishments are concernd.
If he blows it another season with the big club he will have blowed hisself out like another Mariner Birthday Cake crying for a match to light the candles.
Do your starts in Tacoma in a scintillating manner and I'm sure you will be pitching twenty miles north before June is out.
Who knows, maybe he'll replace Karns in the rotation.
zoom
I couldn't disagree more with your angle on it, but that doesn't make you wrong. More comments please.
All I'm saying is Mr. Paxton has perhaps been hexed, cursed, or a specialist in bad timing.
No question he's got super stuff ... at times.
But, he cannot string together for whatever reason.
His meek explanation of his miserable last outing did not sound like a woo woo explanation. It was direct. He said he sucked.
But tossing this in with injuries, ailments, and star crossed incidents of the past few years just suggests he is nearing wits (and physical) ends. He is entering a danger year as he is nearing the edge of his personal cliff, and no one wants to see him lemming over it into the sea.
This guy was a top prospect, but his career has wallowed.
It's put up or shut up time, and, I believe this staff can help get him to his potential.
They want him to be a starting pitcher for thiss team, eventually, and not groom him for a career as a reliever.
Yeah, he could transition to relief withe the big club, then brought back to start ...
....but I'm betting my nickel that they want to know, now, whether or not he is a starting pitcher.
And the best way to do that is with him pitching in a starting rotation.
And that will happen in Tacoma.
Really, is he that different than Zunino in terms of reaching full potential by putting the training wheels back on and then letting the bike roll down the hill and checking his sense of accomplishment is a smile, rather than a crash?
My response is nebulous because: I Do Not Know If A Relief Role Will Help Him Or Harm Him.
I am sure a spot in the rotation in Tacoma will offer Mr. Paxton a better chance to avoid a permanent funk.
You have had a lot of "bad luck" PaxMan ... shake it off.
I'm guessing this staff will do more than put him in front of an hour glass and say, "OK, what's happening. When you fill up in Tacoma you will have turned your career over in a different direction."
He hasn't been named the loser in the fifth starter role yet.
Maybe when Servais called him out it started the pitcher's journey flowing again.
This "if it wasn't for bad luck I wouldn't have no luck at all" has got to stop.
zoom
Putting Paxton in the bullpen isn't a one way street. Given that he hasn't cracked 100 IP in either of the last two seasons, they probably have him tabbed for 120-130 IP total this year. Absent a trip to the DL, if he's starting from day one, he's either not pitching the last 6-8 weeks of the season or he's doing it from the bullpen. Why not get those bullpen innings at the beginning of the season (when the club really needs them) instead of the end of the season?
Stick him in the pen, tell him to focus on his two best pitches (FB/CB), let him go 2-3 innngs per outing and see where you are at in a month or two. Maybe he goes thermonuclear in that role and the club has a bona-fide relief ace on their hands. Maybe not and once the starters get stretched out and the weather warms up, you ship him to Tacoma to get his innings in. Regardless, it's not like a month or two in the bullpen at the beginning of the season pegs him as a reliever for the rest of his career.
I'm in agreement w/ Griz. With the current shape of our bullpen, what current alternative do we have that could be as beneficial as Paxton throwing heat in the late innings? Hultzen's downward spiral has made me wary of pushing too hard on pitchers who demonstrate repeated physical infirmity.
A once-blown but rebuilt engine often will have a hidden weakness that won't be seen until the block cracks. I know some of Paxton's history has been akin to car-door dings suffered in a busy parking lot. But my gut tells me that he'll suffer a thrown rod if revved up too high over too long a period of time. He's better built for the quarter mile, but not the Indy 500. Perhaps pen-work is the best way to maximize his talent and not destroy his engine -- with frequent cool-downs, oil changes, and the occasional can of sea-foam for good measure.
Additionally, after seeing Karns' last start -- he looks like a good bet to do well. No rust, solid suspension, late model, low miles, nice torque off the line -- and the re-sale value ain't bad either.
I lean towards Paxton in the bullpen and unless he's terrible in the role, I don't really care if he's there all year. My gut instinct is that the guy is fragile and is unlikely to pitch even 5 years in the major leagues as a starter. I frankly doubt that we'll ever get a full year from him as a rotation stalwart. But he could be dominant as a reliever for 2 to 5 batters at a time, and THAT COULD HAPPEN THIS YEAR, a year in which we have some serious questions about the bullpen going into the season.