The G minus GS column
enough dogma to make your head spin

.

RockiesJeff had a crisp little comment about baseball dogma.  Care to list any of your faves, he axs?  Yeah, everything sabermetrics ever discovered... j/k Jeff.

Merrill pointed out that the TNT emphasized, again, that the M's just can't afford to have their #6 starter unready to step in when needed.  Ergo, the need for 6-7 IP starts at Tacoma so the ballistic missiles can be launched on 90 seconds' notice, maxium.

A nice little synchronicity there, what say?  :- )  Here we go again, with a good many baseball men arguing that the Mariners not only should, but virtually MUST, put their #6SP in Tacoma.

You know the problem with these kinds of arguments?  Is that they've played baseball seasons before.

.....

So, TNT ... no disrespect, thanks for your analysis ... but about 25% of all starters in the AL last year had relief appearances.  Including Roenis Elias, Vidal Nuno, and J.A. Happ.  Just go over to the baseball-reference.com page and scan down the G and GS columns, which lay right next to one another.  You'll see lots of pitchers who have more G than GS.

In 2014, for DiPoto's Angels, guess which glitzy young SP's had bullpen time?  Matt Shoemaker (!) had 20 games started and 7 appearances out of the pen -- with 5 games finished. Hector Santiago, who was DiPoto's pride and joy, had 24 starts but also 6 bullpen appearances, and "closed" 2 games himself.

I'm tired of listing these teams before I even start.  Go look up ANY team, any year, and you'll find a handful of Vidal Nunos.  Or Johan Santanas.  Or Ramiro Mendozas.  They talk these days like a "swing man" RP/SP is poison.  It is just preference masquerading as ancient wisdom, except the ancients didn't agree.

... ah, can't resist checking DiPoto's other Angels teams.  2013, their best young pitcher Garrett Richards had 47 games, of which 17 were starts.  Joe Blanton and Tommy Hanson, established AL starters, spent significant time in the pen.

2012, Richards again swung back and forth, so if DiPoto's Angels are any indication, there wouldn't even be any rush to get Karns "fixed" in the rotation or pen.  He could spend two or three years doing it.  And you begin to suspect that DiPoto and Servais are well aware that this option is perfectly viable, but people use these arguments to push their preferred 25-man roster.  That's fine, but as a baseball fan you need to be aware that there is no absolute here.  You pay a price for anything you believe that isn't true ...

.....

The whole idea that Paxton or Karns "need to stay stretched out" may be "inside the box baseball thinking," but it simply contradicts all of baseball history.  Nate Karns pitches out of the 'pen and is needed Friday?  He can go 5 IP that very first start, and 6-7 the next one.  We're making that first 5-inning start out to be the end of the blinkin' world.

But supposing you DID have to send Paxton or Karns out for one or two "rehab" starts and use Roach to fill that?  How is that any different from the guy BEING in Tacoma?  Ah, right, could be one start he misses when you reallllly wanted to start him.  Well, that outweighs everything ... maybe except for the Earl Weaver theory that the guy is more ready to pitch in the majors if he's actually been facing major league hitting.

You asked RockiesJeff.  Here's exhibit 1-A.  Cool Papa said it best.  The same thing that they'd do with an ordinary pitcher like Nuno, without thinking twice, the same thing becomes unthinkable when you're talking about a really good pitcher.

BABVA,

Dr D

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Comments

1
The Other Billy Zoom's picture

Think, what think?

DePoet and Cerveza knew of, but don't know, Paxton.

They are dealing with an undefined person, not just a slot on a chart

He has not been under their microscope to determine his ability to fulfill his potential what bubbles up ... his name is mentioned as a top end lefty SP, and I'm guessing they know what that is worth.

Very simply, they can't "overthink" over what to do with this guy.

When you are bringing taking beer through he aging process,  you don't change the temperature or add water ... you might screw it up.

Sending PaxMan to Tacoma more safely allows him to age into that big time big league starter without redefining the role he aspires to.

It is not something an outsider can measure and they haven't had the time to get him into  the opeating room.

But they don't want to put him in emergency.

Team mental health guru McKay has probablty opined in staff sessions on Saturday night in Peoria, which route to take with Paxton.

It's more than just keeping him "stretched" out ... they don't want to pop the balloon.

I'm just hunching they are less concerned about putting Karns into a relievers spot with the big team, but, perhaps both staying out of the pen is better than parole from there at a later time.

Roach appears to fit there, and if his trade crazy career hasn't been traumatized yet it is doubtful anything they can throw at him would be likely to do near as much damage.

Starting in Tacoma is a safer diagnosis.

zoom

2

'Physican, first do thy patient no harm' - as usual Billy your take on it is sensible and probably reflective of the M's consensus.

Whether a couple of 2-IP outings would prove more traumatic to K-Pax than to (say) Roenis Elias, that may be more problematic, but like you say when you have a $50M resource at stake it's easier to be conventional.

3
GregfromSpokane's picture

I think that what is in play here is the "Brandon Maurer Syndrome." Switching roles really seemed to mess up what looked like a promising TOR type guy. Also what if he does well as a reliever? Then a closing situation opens up.... We might never find out if he's   Clayton Kershaw or just Charlie Furbush II.

4

Assures his trip to Tacoma imho.  Too many HRs allowed for whatever reasons;  location, lack of deception, tipping pitches.  Doc, your sense of where he most/best belongs turned prescient Sunday.  Obviously,  Pax needs some "quiet time" to get this figgered out.  He will and when he's ready I want him to start.  Send him South for the near-term and let him debut in late April or May.

5
Merrill's picture

( - ;

Thanks for the shout-out ... TNT was just quoting Servais, who was saying that they had had meetings about it. My only point was that there are no differences between Servais and JeDi on the issue. According to Servais' (means "service" in French, if memory serves, but pronounced "ser-(rhymes with "hair")VAY (rhymes with "clay")) comments, they discussed and reached consensus.

I understand the foundation of your opinion and respect it wholeheartedly--and indeed, agree, as a general rule. Far be it from me to dispute with people more knowledgeable than I, and you are one of those on the topic of baseball in general.

But!

I am talking about them building up innings-wise for next year. Paxton especially, after two straight years of shortened-by-injury IP totals. Karns' season was cut short last year, so it seems to me that a second straight year of truncated IP might set him back, in terms of being able to go 190-210 NEXT season.

Could be wrong, especially about Karns. Just trying to lay out the basis of my opinion.

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