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Odd to me that anybody is on the other side of this issue, but fortuitous. In the early days, James and Shandler got credit for genius when they used simple stats to make large, inescapable conclusions. Like, Joe Shlabotnik just finished 1982 with a 16-7 record but had 5k against 4bb ... Sidd Finch just finished with a 9-12 record but had 9k against 1bb. Hey, everybody! Finch will probably be better this year than Shlabotnik! "You're nuts..."
You're slow to come around on Nate Karns, power to you amigo. :- )
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Just from a sabermetric standpoint, Karns has 175 strikeouts in 176 major league innings. That alone .... we're not talking about tools here; we're talking about results, outcomes. About one rookie pitcher per year accomplishes this, and they're always Dallas Keuchel.
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From a template standpoint -- Mike Mussina, John Lackey, Karns gives you the dream combo: power overhand curve that he can throw for strikes at will, and the weaponized fastball to back it up. His curve has a sharp late break and an average velocity of 81 MPH; last year that curve velo ranked #17 among 113 qualified pitchers. Everybody* ahead of him was Ventura or Strasburg or Harvey, true hot rods with 97 fastballs, and their curves were only a little bit faster than Karns', at 82, 83.
He's got a lifetime value of +1.19 runs saved per 100 curves thrown, and last year he ranked #4 in percentage of curves thrown. Again you've got the concept of Marshawn Lynch running against nine men in the box, defenses knowing what is coming, and unable to stop him. The curve is a game-in, game-out bread and butter pitch.
He's not Aaron Sele, living by his curve and trying to nibble with the fastball. He's got a legit 92-94 fastball to play off against the curve, and he can locate it. In fact when he locates it low-and-away it's next to impossible to hit. One of the joys of 2016 M's baseball is watching batters swing OVER the top of Karns' straight fastballs.
Right hand starting pitchers whose curves are legitimate weapons, who prefer to get batters out with the curve, it's a long list of very effective starters. Roy Oswalt, Jim Palmer, Mike Cuellar ... Earl loved right hand starters with tough curves and fair giddyap on the fastball.
Granted, Karns' raw stuff isn't quite up to the Oswalt, Palmer level. It's a template; Chris Sale is in Randy Johnson's template.
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From a mechanics standpoint, I like him better than Erasmo Ramirez or indeed Lackey. Excellent CG control, right down the driveline, very quiet head. He's got a high front side that hides the ball.
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From a makeup standpoint, he's brainy, stoic, tough -- grizzled and handles challenges well --, and enjoys pitching.
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From an upside standpoint, he is just getting going with his changeup and his 3.4 walk rate from last year figures to go down. The dude is just "starting pitcher" the way you would draw him up on the chalkboard, and his early results are there. It's not a question of whether he'll translate. He has translated.
We remember 1991, after the Indians had been terrible for a thousand years, and everybody was still laughing at them ... James said "this Albert Belle kid, he just slugged .540 in Cleveland and it was a legit .540. Jimmie Foxx couldn't have done what Belle did last year. But, since it was in 496 at-bats, he didn't get 30 homers or 100 RBI. He hasn't had that 45 homer, 130 RBI season yet, so some people are going to question him. But he can sure as shootin' hit cleanup."
Sabermetricians or not, we want pitchers to go 20-8, 2.48 with Cy Young votes before we buy in. But the partial season is exactly where roto champs live ...
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Last outing, he had 10.8 K per nine and 1.8 walks :- ) but gave up a .429 BABIP and a 25% homer/fly rate. Early in 2016 he's camoflauged.
The prognosis is not for him to be the best pitcher in the league; he's around the plate so much that he's going to give up some tee shots. The John Lackey, Ferguson Jenkins type of pitcher doesn't run 1.99 ERA's. But they are capable of running off 17 wins per year routinely. Adam Wainwright is an example in this template.
The catch is, Karns doesn't look like a guy who's likely to rip off 10 impact seasons in a row. He's a little bit short-limbed for that, or something.
It's a "Best Bet," not a guarantee. The Warriors are a Best Bet against the Blazers or Grizzlies, except nobody wants the other side of that one. But if Karns is healthy and throws 175+ innings this year, my figures would be:
And he'll deliver it for what, $500,000. That's my take on Karns. He is an EXTREMELY valuable commodity.
BABVA,
Dr D