Seattle Sports Insider

Sizzlers & Fizzlers - M's Three True Outcomes

Dr. D presses on with his hyper-objective assessments of the AL West

Posted by

4/18/16

At 2 wins and 6 losses, SSI denizens were disinclined to produce a 2016 Mariners calendar featuring Adam Lind and Ketel Marte. After three nice wins and a return to the middle of the pack, they're still not grabbing 16-game plans with both hands, but at least we can hold a grudging conversation.

Feeling untrimmed by any likely outrage from the denizens, Dr. D's mighty beard hungers for Mariner hope. Thusly:

45-45 - Mariner runs scored and runs allowed

112:99 - Mariner advantage in strikeouts gained and strikeouts lost

35:38 - Mariner disadvantage in walks gained and walks lost

16:11 - Mariner advantage in home runs inflicted and home runs suffered

0 - games scheduled thus far against Twinkies, Braves, etc

0 - games scheduled thus far against predominantly right-handed enemies

101 - Mariner OPS+

101 - Mariner ERA+

Abominable - contributions thus far by Seager, Lind, and Miley

Certain - what are the chances that Seager, Lind, and Miley will be good players in 2016

Early - at what point are we in Servais' culture change

Early - at what point are we in temperate enviroment w/r/t the hitting of Cano, Cruz, Gutierrez, Marte, Leonydas, and Sardinas

.214 - Mariner AVG with men in scoring position

....

James was asked about this just today. Still just $3 per month to join.

HeyBill : Ted Williams supposedly said that pitchers have an advantage in cool April/May but hitters have the advantage in hot summer months. Is there any evidence for seasonal variations of this type in MLB stats? Maybe in the past when everybody played day games outside and double headers were common?

Asked by: FrankD

Answered: 4/18/2016

No, there are strong seasonal patterns in hitting levels. Hitters hit much better in warm weather. I think the "seasonal" patterns are less obvious now because we have a dozen or so warm-weather teams; the patterns are less obvious. In Teddy's day there were no teams in Houston or Dallas or Florida or Atlanta or San Diego or California. It's offset a little because pitcher's control isn't as sharp early in the season as it is later, but that too is mitigated some over time by changes in off-season workout routines and increased use of multiple relievers, but still, the old seasonal patterns are still there.

....

So it isn't your imagination that it's harder to hit in cold weather - and in Seattle we have the intersection of (1) a tougher-than-usual cold weather park and (2) a more-Latin-than-usual batting order.

Still, it's not like the M's home April offense is doomed like a Victoria's Secret model plus thirty pounds. Nelson Cruz slugged .724 last April and .607 in May; he's slugging .532 for us right now and is not yet in synch. Robinson Cano did have a slow first half in 2015, with the injuries well-noted, but in 2014 hit .330 in April and May for the M's. Franklin Gutierrez joined us in June. Adam Lind's career splits in April and May are normal, despite playing in Toronto and Milwaukee.

....

It's fair to say that as catastrophic season starts go, a 5-7 record is rather understated. A little more Michael Caine than Jeremy Irons, we would suggest. There are times to throw in the towel, but -1.5 games out in April isn't my own preferred moment to do so.

Here are the records of the 5 AL playoff teams as of April 20, 2015 (last year):

6-7 = Toronto (93 W)
6-7 = NYY (87 W)
10-3 = KC (95 W) okay we'll give you that one
5-8 = Tex (88 W) went on to start 7-15
7-6 = Hou (86 W)

Over in the National League it was a little different. The Mets, Cards and Dodgers all got off to hot starts, though the Pirates and Cubs were .500'ish en route to 98 and 97 wins.

As Servais says, it's still going to come down to getting a pitch and putting a good swing on it. If hot grounders go at people next homestand, the laws of physics and Blaise Pascal still aren't going to be revoked.

Cheers,

Dr D

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Comments

Been thinking

I wonder just how successful MLB coaches have been at teaching EXISTING MLB types to change their approach at the plate. You know, changing the first ball-fast ball approach to a C the Z one.

I don't think it is as easy as we might assume it to be.

Batters bring an approach to the plate that is, in many ways, part and parcel of them; it is in their baseball DNA, so to speak. It is no easy thing to ask them to significantly change the very make-up that got them here in the first place, the make-up they've used for 20 years.

Leonys Martin has walked* 53, 51 and 45 pts in the bigs. He's at 73 pts this year, with a whole 3 BB's in 42 PA's. Can he sustain a 1/14 BB/PA rate after having after running a 1/17 rate his entire career? Maybe, but improving from a 6% walk rate to a 7% walk rate might just be margin of error noise, as well.

Cano is walking a bit more than his career suggests, but Lind hasn't had a BB yet this season. Aoki has had just one.

I know we're dealing with very SSS, but i would not jump to the conclusion that you can easily change one well-ingrained part of a batting approach. At least not without potentially impacting other areas as well. Being behind 0-1 in the count is certainly much worse than going after that first pitch strike.

John Olerud was born to control the zone, you probably couldn't have changed that if you tried. He walked 103 pts for his career; he walked 99 pts as a rookie. It was part of his baseball DNA. Edgar walked 111 pts at age 21 in A Ball, his first full professional season. He and Lady Gaga were born this way.

But asking Ichiro to hit that way would have been silly.

Changing folks spots is a hard thing to do. Arnold Palmer was a born swashbuckling attack-mode golfer. I'm not sure you could get him to change that and have the result as an overall positive.

You get my drift.

Controlling the zone is more about getting guys who do that, rather than changing guys who don't. Get a guy as a 20 year old and you might have some impact, but I'm not sure your success rate is great even then. Genetic modification works great with corn, I'm not sure it works that great (in this sense) with baseball players.

Moe

* including HBP's.

No way you can change most hitters' DNA at age 28

If it's tough enough in golf, imagine it in a quick-reaction sport based on 0.20-second windows of decision. Spot on Moe.

The main thing I like about C the Z, with its emphasis on taking certain pitchers' pitches and being ready on certain hitters' pitches, is that it emphasizes "having an idea out there." Batter do have UP seasons and DWN seasons, and that's the way to go for them ...

Batters do also increase their BB with age. No doubt based on pitch recog and the game slowing down a bit. C the Z might help them grow into their natural hitting arcs, as opposed to having stunted ones like Smoak and Ackley got...

Taking Moe's point one further...

I wonder how Edgar's teaching and verbage has changed from last year to now???

Yes, Edgar did control the zone, but I wonder how he communicated it to others last year versus the Dipoto, McKay, Servais infused teachings ... since last year several had relatively quick and sustained success. I mean, even Trumbo is still having success without the control the zone verbage and stress points... and Marte, Guti, Seager and others are doing worse.