Seattle Sports Insider

Keuchel vs Karns

don't buy in, feeb? No wonder you're back of the line

Posted by

4/26/16

If you just joined us, there are some behemoth, Carrier-class Opening Day starters who are taking their lumps this April. You thought it was just Felix :- )

Shelby Miller has four starts, totalling 14 innings with an 8+ ERA and more walks than strikeouts.

Jered Weaver's "fastball" is averaging 81.8 MPH. Yes, a few pitchers have scuffled for a year or two at 80-83 MPH, but they were all lefthanders. Weaver's on the brink of becoming something you feel guilty watching, like those predator YouTube videos. Especially the insect laying eggs ones.

Scott Kazmir's ERA is 6.62, though that's just an April thing, prolly.

Adam Wainwright is single-handedly destroying the Cardinals' team ERA+ of 135; he's got an ERA of 7.25 and he's got 9 strikeouts in 22 innings. Jake Peavy, Matt Garza, and Wade Miley have had months to forget.

Collin McHugh, who is Keuchel's teammate, is 1-3, 7.56 in four starts spanning only 16 innings. He's throwing 70% of his pitches at 87 MPH or slower, which is not something you're looking for in your 28-year-old ::coughKarnscough:: starter. If your friendly local neighborhood Astros fan wants to bet you about a 19-7 record this year, you're probably okay on that one.

Lance McCullers, who is Keuchel's other teammate, had a 3.22 ERA last year with a 94.5 MPH fastball and more K than IP. He is currently in time out for insufficient shoulder, but as with Danny Hultzen, he could show up fine any day now. Which brings us to

DALLAS KEUCHEL, who after 432 innings in 2014-15 may be in the middle of a freefall from "Cliff Lee" status to "Mark Beuhrle / Kenny Rogers" status. The very biggest takeaway from this Fangraphs article is that the umps used to give Keuchel a blizzard of unfair strikes at the shins, but now they don't. But another big takeaway is that Keuchel has gone from 90-92 on his sinker to 88-89.

Keuchel never had Cole Hamels stuff to begin with. It's a big difference, having to swing at a 91 MPH sinker at the shins, vs swinging at an 88 MPH sinker at the lower thigh. His walks have gone from a reliable 1.9 per game to twice that, and last Thursday the Rangers took him on a grand ballpark tour to the tune of 13 separate base hits.

We don't say that Keuchel is a DFA. But his ERA's were 2+ in 2014 and 2015, as low in Houston as Felix' best ERA's in Safeco. There's always a good reason that unheralded teams become heralded. It turns out later that they had primo players.

He's done a whale of a lot for Houston's rotation. If he's down to #2 starter territory, well, McHugh and McCullers are liable to provide less than McSterling support. Astros wobbling.

NATE KARNS is having trouble getting a radar lock on real stardom, like an F-22 heads up display that keeps overshooting and undershooting its quarry. But he's got a +1.73 score on his curve ball, he's got 187 strikeouts in 186 big league innings and he's got Dr. D's Best Bet endorsement. He ain't quite there yet, but while he's getting there he's still for choice over Joe Wieland.

SSI DENIZENS FIGURED that if the M's could get out of April okay, they'd have a season. They're already out of April okay. The Karns-Keuchel midweek game is now anything but a "must win." It feels like, for the first time in about twelve years, we get to play one hand with a bit of house money. Love playing from ahead.

BABVA,

Dr D

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Dallas Keuchel

Nate Karns

Comments

I was writing this one off.

Now you've made me want to win it. Thanks doc. :)

Seriously...I'm counting on us winning the rubber game (much better match-up for us with Kuma in Safeco vs. McLame. If we win tonight, I'm gonna feel pretty good.

It's amazing how one's impression of the off-season can color how one views a team. etwoncoug and I chat regularly...he is like the Fox News of Mariner fandom...he's got a "fun" bevy of talking points lined up for one political perspective - the anti-Mariner camp. :) Last night I spent the game swatting down his theories:

1) Their bad luck on balls in play is mostly them hitting into the shift (NOPE...they have beaten the shift at about the same rate as every team in the AL, averaged)

2) OK their bad luck on BABIP is cancelled by their good luck on HR/Fly (NOPE...they're hitting the ball harder than all but 5 AL teams...their marginally elevated 14% HR/Fly is expected given who is hitting the fly balls and how they're being hit)

3) Their pen is even worse without Benoit! (NOPE...Benoit has been a negative thus far...and Guaipe is throwing the stuffing out of the ball in AAA before his call-up)

4) Their team defense is lousy (NOPE...we're a Ketel Marte maturation curve away from being league average on defense)

5) Martin is hitting into good luck (NOPE...Martin has his ambition dialed up to 11 and is hitting for power and getting the expected low BA and Ks that come with it)

6) Lind is cause for major alarm...looks out of shape, slow, stiff (maybe, but Lee could easily step in for him)

7) They're still not getting on base! (bad luck on BABIP will do that...but their walk rate is improving and they are like 8th in the majors in Pitches/PA)

He set me up...I knocked 'em down. :)

Basically...I was neutral about the off-season...so much happened...I liked some of it but not all...he hated just about every major move. The result, he sees the winning streak and thinks "they're not plkaying all that well...but they're gutting out a lot of close games"...whereas I see them playing very crisply indeed, though I still think there are reasons for some worry.

Going to see how long it takes to get buy-in from etwon. :)

Gutted it out for sure

Last night's was a game last we lose in 2013, 2014 and 2015. We should have stomped all over them, with Fister throwing seven walks, all those men on base waiting for the big blow, but, baseball. Safeco field, Mariners, April, Team we should beat (Astros).

So happy we gutted it out though. So glad we made the plays when we had to: Seager's throw to first, Iannetta's CS of Gómez, Cishek getting a weak grounder from Altive on a bad boy located pitch to end it. Tough, tough plays. But Taujian...last night he was a revelation.

I get mad when I think of Jack's butchering so much of our drafting. Yes, yes, unfair I know. But, Ackley, Hulthen, (stupid autocorrect absolutely refuses to allow me to type Danny's name correctly) and the coup d'tat: I am so tired of watching Mike Trout beat us, being so great, and me left thinking, again unfairly so, "He should be a Mariner. Why on earth is he an Angel?"

But...Taijuan Walker. Oh baby. All is forgiven if we get to keep this Taijuan Walker.

Consider the playing field leveled

ANY advantage the M's would have had with Dallas struggling, and KKKKKarns hitting gear has been thrown away... since the M's are starting the OF of Guti, Aoki, and Cruz.

With a team that hits a lot of fly balls, with a pitcher who gives up a lot of fly balls... Servais plays this OF??? May the Lord look after Karns today...'cuz he is going to need all the help he can get.

Prayer... answered

Perhaps they should start Guti, Aoki and Cruz out there more often! They backed up Karns very effectively- one Aoki error (from the most-capable of the three starting outfielders) and, othewise, flawless outfield play. (Cano baserunning, and slugging, contributed mightily, as well.)