1
And with that, Cruz goes deep....Seager/Martin combine for the 2nd 8th inning run
Pity the poor Tiggers.
Red hot and rolling.
And aware of it.....which is an important thing.
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At the start of the Angels - Tigers - A's - Angels - Brew - Yank$ - White Sox run, Dr. D pounded his spoon on the table and demanded some 15-8 gruel. If not 16-7. The M's have complied with a 5-0 serving of bacon and hash browns, so rather than move the goalposts, we'll just call that a 10-8 or 11-7 run to the finish line.
The Mariners have already raised their playoff chances to 44%. Since Fangraphs' microprocessor has no way to crunch James Paxton or Edwin Diaz, we'll cheerfully slide that to 50.1% baby. Be there or be square.
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THREE FOOT PUTT TO WIN THE MASTERS
'twas fun, last night, to watch the M's stare down the Tigers for fifteen innings. The Joe Sheehans of the world may protest that every baseball player is immune to pressure, because so good at facing it. In one sense that's true: any PGA pro with a Tour Card can stand on the first tee and nail one to the ooh's and aah's of the gallery.
However, NFL Hall of Famer Chris Collinsworth watched a kicker botch a FG at the end of a playoff game and smiled, "There is no way to practice a 3-foot putt to win the Masters." For any athlete, there is some scenario that will force his attention off the play and into self-consciousness.
Not for doctoral thesis now, but just for the pleasure of watching baseball ... if you had such a 3-foot put for $1MM, who would you take? I'll take Kyle Seager for that putt.
And Felix; he's won his share of 1-0 games in Boston and New York. And WBC-san. And you start to suspect that Edwin Diaz would flip the ball up onto his putter blade and "dunk" it into the hole.
Playoff game tomorrow, babe, they're choosing between Taijuan and Nate Karns for the #4 slot. NOT LeBlanc or Miranda. Don't forget where the real talent is.
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PROPS AND SLOPS
Like we sez, there's a certain D.F. (delerium factor) we plow through here, so take it as "rough-hewn" and not as "half-baked." Thanky kindly.
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PROPS for FELIX - looks from SSI's camera angle like he plots up, not down. Granted, he's got the Tiggers tonight, so that's a mulligan. But over the rest of the summer, we've got him for "plus number two starter" at the least.
The old razor-sharp command comes and goes now. But lurking behind that is a mammoth ability to make adjustments and a scant handful of offspeed pitches. Expect more, not less, from the King as we go forward.
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PROPS for ZUUMBALL - swinging at only 25% of balls outside the zone; that's lower than Kyle Seager's got. The 4 HBP's (in 18 games) in his case receive an addition to the 7 he's got in the BB column. Leaving the BABIP at .400. As to the .700 SLG, you knew that. He's letting the ball travel and then LASHING it down the LF line like Jose Lopez.
His last technically perfect at-bat was his last one, the one that won the middle Tiger game.
It's an interesting question, what Zunino is capable of. No idea. Would be very interested in hearing some guesses.
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PROPS for WADE LeBLANC - has given up a few dings, but this guy can pitch #5-6 for my ball club any time. Tigers were a poor matchup. The post-trade A's and the Brewers and the Yankees are not known for having a bunch of Cabreras and Kinglers and Martinezes.
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SLOPS to - nobody on a team that has gone 5-0 for me this week. Well, maybe Taijuan Walker. And maybe the baserunning, according to Scott Servais. There has been a leak of horsepower to the back wheels; too many people safe at first and too few safe at home. Odd on a team with such home run power. They are 7th in runs, 2nd in wRC+. Let's see the Mr. Wizards down there fix that.
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PROPS for the M's OFFENSE IN THEORY - over the last two weeks, they have eight players with OPS+ from 193 to 109. We pity the fools who follow Verlander into the maelstrom.
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See you at the ballpark,
Jeff
Comments
2
Boomstick gives us the broomstick. That and a very Felix-like start. And an all-world play from Seager. And a big insurance RBI from Martin.
This could be a special August/September/October.
August of '95 was "Refuse To Lose." We need a slogan for 2016. Something like..."Spittin' on Quittin'" (naw, that focuses on the negative), or "Jellin' and Swellin'"
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Especially since you get the Adopt-a-Slogan DaddyO :- )
Hadn't occurred, the comparison to 1995. Worth a little stopover to b-ref to check it out ...
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The '95 M's were also at right about .500 in the 100-110 game stretch. Indeed, 55-55 after the Aug. 24 win over the Yankees. I put together some stats from the year (at https://1995mariners.wordpress.com/2010/03/21/some-datatrivia-about-the-...): one interesting similarity is 16 last at-bat wins for the '95 squad.
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What do you have for last-AB losses for both teams? This one seems to have received as good as it's gotten ... so far :- )
High-scoring teams are of course more prone to comebacks. Both '95 and '16 have the thumpers to do so.
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60-53: In a neck and neck and neck race with Boston and Detroit for WC spot #2.
I think we SSI'ers have generally operated under the assumption that 90 wins gets you into the WC, 89 probably does so and 88 might. The numbr has been 93-92-88-86 over the past four years.
If 90 is the number (and assuming that Baltimore stays on top of the WC race), the M's have to go 30-19 from here-on-out. 61% is a tough task. And we have to hope that Boston doesn't go 30-20 or that Detroit hammers it's way to 30 more wins.
If 89 is the magic number, then we have to play 59% ball. 88 demands 57%.
All of that asks that Boston and Detroit play at 53% from here on out.
In the midst of our 10-1 run, it is easy to think that 30 wins by Oct. 2nd is easy-peasy. But, at some point in those 49 games we're going to go 1-3 or 2-4. It will happen.
If we go 1-4 at some point (well within the realm of reasonability...that is a very mini-slump) then we have to win 29 of the other 44 games, nearly 66%, to get to 90.
Of course, all that is just as true for Boston and Detroit. And Houston could go nuts. Or maybe Baltimore does a Cubby-type collapse. But 90 looks to be our lock-it-in number and to get there we have to avoid the 6 or7 game ugly stretch. Even a 2 win, 5 loss week demands a 67% win rate in the rest of the games. That would be hot stuff. We've won 11 of our last 16, despite our smoking week, and 11/16 is 69%. Do we have another 10-1 stretch in us?
If the number is 88...well, then....we're pretty decently positioned. But that assumes that both Boston and Detroit "stumble"...or that Baltimore doess. It is best that we shoot for 90.
And to get there demands that we don't have the cold-cold week. Simple things like a back to back bullpen meltdown, followed by a 1-run game equal a cold cold week. It's pretty dang possible. But we seem to be gelling and we certainly have guys with broad-enough shoulders to pack us for a bit.
Put your shootin' shoes on, lace 'em up tight, it's going to be a fun race to October. Which is exactly what we hoped we would get way back in April.
Go team.
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And I think any time you ask, "what does the #4 or #5 team have to do, in WL%," you're going to get some daunting numbers like that.
Don't scare me none. Is what they'll need, is another winning streak beyond this last one. Can't play .500 into the playoffs from here and don' want to. :- )
9
A well rested Felix Hernandez is something this team has never had in the second half. Years past, they had to lean on him so hard that he seemed a bit gassed coming down the stretch. We know he's capable of running off insane stretches of "ultra-quality" starts like last night's vs the Tigers. If the M's truly have The King back leading the rotation, I like thier chances.
11
The bullpen is going great guns (impossible to maintain?)...but we've got concerns about the back of the rotation.
With xFIPS of 4.89 for LeBlanc and 4.44 for Miranda, we're right to count the days to Taijuan's return (4.02). (BTW, if he's still in Tacoma on his bobblehead night, do they still give him one?)
But the fact is, EVERYBODY we're chasing has the same issues. As best as I can tell (guess, in some cases), here are how #4 and #5 stack up for the competition:
Detroit: Sanchez 4.76, Boyd 4.47
Boston: Rodriguez 4.85, Buchholz (?) 5.42
Baltimore: Garrardo 5.32, Milley 4.17 (ouch)
Texas: Perez 4.82, Harrell 5.53
Astros: Fiers 4.27, Fister 4.75
Jays: Estrada 4.46, Dickey 4.69
I've always felt that young pitching on the rise is the most important boost during a pennant run. Can't WAIT for Taijuan to get back...hopefully fully adjusted in mechanics and psyche.
(BTW, props to DaddyO on 'boomstick/broomstick', and Moe for the deep dive on the data.)
12
Puts it in a nice perspective. League-average ERA give you a nice jump on the crowd.
Still not sure how Texas is +20. Their run differential is still about =, right? Maybe the odds will catch up with them?
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Imagine if we had a healthy, on-his-game Furbush as a lefty out of the pen. Yowza! Those doggone rotator cuffs...