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RANDOM BASEBALL SNIPPETS

Moe Dawg's article on Eric Thames was linked up on SportSpyder.  As was this very recent FanGraphs article on Thames.  Just now hitting 30, it's worth their mention that Thames stole 40 bases in 2015.  Thanks to Jeon Jun-Ho, the "Stolen Base King of Korea" who was his first base coach.

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In his Friday FanGraphs chat, Jeff Sullivan was asked to project Aroldis Chapman's next deal.  His reply, "Nine figures" and Dr. D adds that's on the condition you can guess which restaurant he wants for his free agent stopover in Seattle.

Edwin Diaz has never looked better.  Are there any closers UNDER CONTRACT for whom you could deal Taijuan Walker?   Teams are going to realize that their own Edwin Diazes are worth, um, a lot.

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Bill James has an article up, "Sabermetric Amber Flashing Light," in which he manfully concedes that he came to "a terrible realization" some time ago.  Which is that real patterns may exist and when they do, that they are totally undetectable -- so his favorite argument "clutch performance doesn't persist from one season to the next" is actually broken.

As you know, we've been discussing this for years at SSI, but Bill's ARTICULATION of this problem is amazing.  He had begun "sensing" this problem in 2003, whereas several of us were ahead of him (for once) on this issue.  That said, his Oct. 7, 2016 confession and explanation is one of his finest, and that's saying a lot.  Worth becoming a BJOL subscriber for that article alone.

This is just one bullet point, a starting point, but it's fun:

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And the problem is that this is just the first layer of randomness being represented.  Actually there may be many layers of randomness laying on top of the (real) clutch-hitting pattern underneath, making it impossible to see.  Just so!  And the idea that "no evidence exists for it, so we must assume it's not there until proven otherwise" was always dubious in my mind.  

But, just so you know.  The Founding Father now signs off that "it is more reasonable to believe that [pitcher W's and clutch hitting] are real patterns than" to believe that they are not.

Kyle Seager is a wonderful RBI man.  In my opinion.

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On a related note, a Twitter user asked Bob Dutton his opinion on a fantrade.  Dutton deigned to answer, "I think that's unlikely to happen."  The question, "what do you think of Taijuan Walker for Cory Seager straight up."

SSI denizens had wondered about Walker / Karns / etc in a blockbuster this winter.  A lot of reasons such a deal COULD and SHOULD happen, starting with the club control we have on these guys - if you are offering Taijuan And ?, what in the world is the limit on what you'd get back?   In terms of $/WAR, the rebuilding Los Angeles Angels should be thrilled to deal us Mike Trout for Taijuan Walker, Ketel Marte and goodies, correct?

But, still ... Cory Seager would be pretty info-taining.  More info-taining than the Oklahoma rooster-fights that Steve Largent lost his job over,  and vastly less psychotic.  If any SSI denizen has an idea of a Cory Seager deal that he thinks actually feasible from both sides' point of view, he gets flowers from me.

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Dutton also points out that Andrew Moore and Drew Jackson were top-20 prospects in A+ ball.  Anybody got anythin' on those two?

MiLB has ten organizations up for Best Fam System.  The Mariners are one of them.  Rolling on the floor laughing.  What. does. Jerry. DiPoto. make.  It ain't enough.  And here's the link, with a little squib on why you might vote Seattle the best system in baseball.

Which might imply that two-three years on, your local baseball team is going to be Seahawk'ing it all over the San Francisco Rangers' keisters.

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JOHN BENSON RULE.  Whoever a player was in the second half of last year, that's the player you're getting when you go into the next year.

Best Mariners by that standard?

Nori Aoki hit .339/.390/.500 (!!) in 183 at-bats the second half.  Slap me silly.  NO other Mariner position player was notable for having his best production after July 4.  Does Aoki's 146 OPS+ sway you at all?  Even in a part-time role?

James Paxton saw some evidence come in for his side of the playing-time issue.  But this is taking the John Benson Rule to its laughably extreme logical culmination.  Think about it, the question of whether a player can visibly leap a plateau during a season, and whether fans (nationally) are going to be behind the curve until they see the single-season performance with 18 W's and 200 K.

Paxton is notification that yes, we can trust some things, when we see them.

Edwin Diaz is another guy too obvious to list.  So of course Dr. D lists him.

Cishek.  Had you thought about this?  Does he go in to March 2017 as a pretty cool setup man?  In DiPoto's eyes, probably yes.  In fact, combine Diaz and Cishek ... too bad it hadn't been rolling from Opening Day.  ... well ... next year they will be, right?

Scribner.   And this goes to the issue, "Is it okay to build a bullpen from within?"  You and I FEEL very nervous about that, but Jerry DiPoto isn't known for changing his beliefs over the course of a weekend series.

BABVA,

Dr D