Seattle Sports Insider

Hot Stove: Andrew McCutchen

hey, don't everybody jump for my 0.7 WAR at one time

Posted by

10/19/16

Dr. D cheerfully admits that he's infatuated with Billy Zoom's comments. His latest sat in the pool filter for a day and a half, so we'll make it up to him by mangling his intentions:

My first choice is Andrew McCutcheon rumored to be on his way out of Pittsburgh after a dismal (or abysmal?) year.

Not so long ago he was an All Star, his contract is affordable (and after this year, he could be coming and get an extension in the process).

You numbers nit pickers might not like what you are finding is his aging hair but his recent quotes don't sound like this guy is ready to quit to me. Could be one of those sy ko logic things of losing all his headlines to Marte and Polanco and Josh Bell (who they could switch back to the outfield).

In 2012 he was a gold glove of. Last year he manager moved him way in, and his numbers suffered.

But, I'm putting hin in a corner at Safeco. Yeah, he can still put in fill in time in CF.

If he's not willing to do that, I'm forgetting a deal with the Pirates ... where one of the top needs is a shortstop (marte and marte ... consider the value for marketing). So, there's our chief trade chip in any transaction.

This very day an article in THE Pitts baseball daily talked about "2016, Fowler Up, McCutcheon Down".

This makes it a perfect time to grab him in the continuation of the ongoing pirate budget crisis.

zoom

SSI, while boasting some of the finest mathemeticians in baseball (and by "some of the" we mean Matt) is by no means a number-nitpick site. It IS a Bill James nitpick site, and James a year or two ago said that Andrew McCutchen had THE quickest bat launch he had EVER seen. This immediately casts Dr. D's suspicions into the "McCutchen as Buy Low Opp" camp.

Here is the usual fantabulous Jeff Sullivan article on McCutchen his ownself. Exec Sum, for those of us too lazy to even chew our internet potato chips unless our wives move our jaws for us:

1) McC had a "baseball thumb" last year

2) Advanced math shows that in 2016 McC was lousy, on the surface and under the surface

3) Dunno where he's going from here, but don't write him off too soon

McCutchen is 30 years old and before 2016 he was worth a good steady 7 WAR per season. The dude was practically Kyle Seager with a 26-inch waist. Now he's had a single 0.7 WAR season and we get these rumors.

Hey, know of any current M's who were bankable 7-WAR men and had a single terrible injury season lately?

Blog:

Hot Stove

Tags:

Andrew McCutchen

Comments

Love him

Of course he will bounce back. He was one of the very best players in the game for 4 years running, before his '16 slump.

He's only going to cost you (in samolians) $29M for the next two years.

But every GM in the universe has figured all that out and Pittsburg (if they're selling) are certainly in the driver's seat. But I can't see why they would sell right now. They won 98 games just a year ago, with mostly the same group of guys they have right now. Why would they assume they can't do that again, with a bounced-back Cutch?

Of course, if they trade him they will demand a princely return just because of the factors above. Walker and O'Neill will be what they ask for. I"m not sure you get them to fall back to Deej. But they mihgt tell us that Kyle Lewis and Alex Jackson would do nicely.

Because he's going to bounce back and because he's cheap, GM's are drooling. Which makes him expensive. And then you add to that the fact that Pittsburgh isn't really in a rebuilding mode. If they sell off now, when do they challenge Chicago again?

It's a coup if we can get him and not send away too much. Do that and DiPoto and done something pretty slick.

Walker + guys. And the + won't be chump change. You can bet that Lewis would have to be included.

Are you in or out?

If you could get him to agree to a 3rd year at $18M, or so (and you might get that to happen), before he ran away to the green fields of FA-land, then he's an even nicer get.

I'd give O'Neill for Cutch.

Or Marte/Karns. In a heartbeat. It wouldn't even be hard.

How about...

O'Neill + Walker + Karns + Marte?

I think that's about the opening bid to get in the game--if there is a game.

LOL... no

And I don't think the price would be that high TBH...it's very rare these days for teams give up four major leaguers to get one major leaguer. Cutch is talented, but the more common path is prospects. The + could be high upside guys like Gohara or Alex Jackson rather than today's MLB roster.

If we're going that far..

Then switch O'Neill with Martin and go for Trout! Martin+Walker+(MLB reliever)+Minor League stud. But, yeah its difficult to seriously upgrade that outfield without some unfortunate losses. Would certainly love to see either of them patrolling the Safe next year.

It's the +with O'Neill

that might make it difficult overall to decide. I'm with you in general, 2 years of relatively cheap McCutchen is likely more valuable than 6 of O'Neill. it's possible it's not, but his addition would have me thinking WS possibilities. It's worth the chance.

Agreed

Betcha a conversation (as I said) would start with Walker and O'Neill. You might get back to Walker-Lewis-Jackson.

I don't think Karns does it...even with Lewis. Karns is 28 and just ran FIP's of 4.0 two years running. He hasn't yet indicated he's something special...on the field, anyway.

Walker is 23 and everyone sees the potential of something pretty special.

I'm not sure that 2 years of McCutcheon is worth 6 of O'Neill. Not when you factor in the other stuff you give up.

It's more like 2 years of McCutcheon for 6 years of O'Neill and 4 of Walker or Karns.

And, to tell you the truth, I'm not sure O'Neill couldn't come in next year and bang out enough homers to hit 110, or there-abouts.

Not with his K-rate.

O'Neill still has significant growing up to do IMHO...We shall see...he might end up getting a shot in 2017 if we don't make a splash add...and I'll be excited to have a shot to be proven wrong. :)

Just for the heck of it

Just for fun, I went to the Southern League batting leaders pages at B-R. Wanted to see how 21 year olds who hit "like" O'Neill (north of .800) fared when they made it to the bigs, seeing significant playing time, at age 22. I only looked at 21 year olds...ignired some 20 year olds and one 19 year old.

I initially looked at 2005, picking it randomly because it wasn't too far back and might give us some decent data. Thien I went to 2006. Then I jumped to '12 and '13 just to make it more recent.

2005 had bunch of hitting 21'ers who played a decent amount in the bigs at 22. Here is their OPS in the bigs at 22.

Jeremey Heredia .700 (his AA game was built on BB's not blast)

James Loney .901 (111 PA's)

Jeff Francouer .782 ( hit .884 when called up as a 21 year old)

2006

Matt Kemp .894 at 22 in the bigs.

Tony Abreu .713

2012

Nick Franklin .686 at 22

2013

Javier Baez .551 at 22

Christian Yelich .764 at 22

Arismendy Alcantara .621 at 22

There are some failures in that (short) list...and some successes.

Maybe the most similar to O'Neill were Francouer, Kemp and Baez. They wre boppers of some sort who slugged .487, .528 and .535 in AA. Tank was at .508.

Francouer K'ed in 20% of his PA's. Kemp was 16%, Baez 27% and Tank 22%. Francouer had a .25 Eye, Kemp a .5, Baez a .3 and Tank a .4.

Kemp did go to AAA at 21 and then the bigs that year, too.

So, based on this not-worth-much study, O'Neill might bomb next year (were he to get an early call) and hit .600 or less, like Baez. Or he might bang out a .780-type number like Francouer did. Wouldn't that be nice? Or he goes all Kemp on the league and completely rips the ball.

2 out of those 3 guys did pretty well with an accelerated path to MLB.

To get to a 110 OPS+ (as I suggested he might), O'Neill would have to hit .765, or so. Say .260-.310-.455. That would make him have to look an awful lot like Guti did this year.

It isn't out of the realm of possibility. But I'll round his projection down to 105 just for caution's sake. I'm always too dang cautious.

But he would be just fine after a short stint in Tacoma. Maybe better than fine.

Alternative trade

If the Ms decide to trade for an OF, I think another guy might fit better than Cutch, is reportedly available (for pitching), and put up the following triple slash:

.324/.381/.552/.933

Did I mention he was a LEAD-OFF HITTER! And a decent CF that could cover LF in Safeco, allowing Martin to shade to RF to help out Smith/Cruz/whoever?

Now his 2016 was a career year at age 30. But his career numbers are .298/.348/.467/.814 - with steady improvement since breaking in.

FanGraphs did an article a few years ago that said he was the same hitter as Dustin Ackley: that was before Ackley showed he had problems adjusting and this guy adjusted and re-adjusted. As shifts threatened his hitting prowess, he started bunting and now bunts about 1 in 12 ABs. They don't shift him anymore.

Charlie Blackmon of the Rockies would solve the lead-off hitter issue; if the Ms also got Cozart, Zack also has hit well as a #2 and gives a L-R-L-R-L lineup at #1-5.

Are Blackmon's numbers Coors-inflated? Well, he OPSed .939 at home, but .926 on the road last year, although his career OPS is .900 home, .727 away.

How about platoon splits? Would we need Heredia as a platoon-mate? In 2016, .843 vL, .972 vR; career is .763 vL, .833 vR.

How about controlling-the-zone? 2016 BB 6.7%, K 15.9%; career BB 5.5% K 15.7%

Does he make the Ms younger? Well, he's 30, but he's younger than Aoki or Smith or Gutierrez.

If Karns, Caminero, Yarbrough and/or DJ Peterson (say) could get Blackmon, wouldn't that be a nice fit rather than paying a premium price to hope Cutch recovers?

MC Clutch ...

Comments from around and about the past few days, both localized and national, are beginning to move McCutcheon to the front of the hot stove, and more wood is being added to fan the flames.

Marte was my first choice as a trade chip because that is one of the Pirates greatest needs.

They also have a priority for a back end starter.

And Josh Bell needs to turn up his D if he reamains at 1B.

And three for one and even four for one offers are being tossed around in regards to other clubs.

The stove is getting hot.

While the recent "chat" suggested it would be more sensible to make him a pre-deadline trade, I cannot imagine is value being any hotter than it is now because their GM wants to go into camp with his options in place.

He scored nicely with Kang and Polanco ... and Austin Meadows is next in line for an OF shot.

So, I've refined my trade to offer several options:

Marte, Karns, and Vogelsbach is my top choice.

The Pirates sudied Vogelsbach when he was a "blocked" Cub, and hey can move Josh Bell back to he OF, where the Bucs brought him up.

If that doesn't work, then I reluctantly make it: Tie One On; Marte; and Vogelsbach.

Vogelsbach can be measured as Mike Montgomery.

And even if he won't be DHing for them, and needs work on defense, the fact that he could come back and humble the despised rival, the Cubs, tosses some spice into the stew.

I dunno why I want to see them keep Tank ... maybe it's because I think there might be some be some magic there because he keeps outperforming his expected potential at every turn.

Will the M's put themselves in such a "hostage" position for a 30 year old who might be ready to dash over-the-hill and recent quots from DePoet about them wanting to get "younger".

Me thinks you can bet your sweet patootie they will.

if they can.

zoom

Blackmon

Not a bad idea, Wish.

Give Blackmon his Away numbers and you ocould figure that he would hit the .261-.302-.422 that you wrote about....and in 600 PA's you could figure on 18 homers and 30 doubles...I love guys who get close to 50 XB's,

He's pretty cheap and brings a nice COF glove.

It wouldn't bother me if we ended up with a RHB. If Vogs and Gamel are on the 25 and in the lineup then we're only rolling Zunino and Cruz out there with RHB's, minus whoever we have at SS. Fowler is a switchie, which is even better.

Would St. Louis part with Grichuk? You would have to include somebody like Karns and a Jackson. Maybe that does it. Maybe. OK, probably not. Add Deej. Or an MLB RP.

Grichuk K's like a bandit, 30% of the time. But he's young, with room to grow, has no platoon concern, was a plus glove CF'er last year, will give you 20 HR's, is cheap, OPS'ed .877 just a year ago.....and isn't likely to be traded by St. Louis. But I would like him quite a bit. K's be damned.

Actually Grichuk hit in '16 what I might think O'Neill would hit in '17 if he got decently hot.