.

The first baseball site I hit, other than youse' guys Think Tank and BJOL, is the Mariners' own site.  Greg Johns has good judgment.  He's got several interesting articles up.  One of them was:

.

MARK TRUMBO

Here is the link.  As Johns points out, Dipoto has two GM gigs on his resume and he has shed Mark Trumbo as many times.  And as you know, this roster has no use for has little need for Mark Trumbo.  Therefore, Dipoto believes that Trumbo has leaped a major plateau, that Mark Trumbo is now a much better hitter than he used to be.

Here's the kicker:  Trumbo is looking at a 4-year deal!  Whence Vogelbach and O'Neill?  Opportunism, baby...

In a chess position, you have 12 principles all relevant and all competing against each other.  One of the principles in play for Jerry Dipoto is the Robinson Cano / Nelson Cruz window.  Keep that one in mind.

....

What could be Trumbo's big improvement?  If it exists in the real world, and not just in the random noise of an HR/F luck stat?

Jeff Sullivan answered that for us.  It's hard to say how you could improve on this article.  The bottom line:  Trumbo isn't hitting the ball more often.  But when he does hit the ball, he is making outstanding contact.  In fact he is currently the #2 player in the major leagues behind Giancarlo Stanton, in terms of good things happening once he connects.  This kind of player is not boring to watch.

Sully's logic was that an improvement can come from:

• Fishing less often
• Hitting the ball more often in the zone
• Doing better things with the ball once you hit it

Bill James' classic analysis uses 4 things instead of 3; he divides that last thing into (a) how hard you hit the ball and (b) how often you pull it in the air.   Some guys legitimately hit .600 when they pull the ball in the air.  

Hitting the ball hard is ---> strength and bat (through) speed.  Pulling the ball in the air is --- > a separate thing.  AIRPULL is not a random stat.  You could alternatively call it the "I SAW THAT ONE COMING DOWN 6th AVENUE!" stat.  There is no reason a hitter wouldn't get better at anticipating.

... it all boils down to, are you getting your pitch (whether that is out-and-over, or whatever) and then planting the back leg.  These "correctly guessed Back Leg Specials" are not found in any website's hitting stats.  They are, however, reflected in a 47 Home Runs stat, and in MPH off bat.

That would be two (2) pieces of evidence that Mark Trumbo is now a 40-homer man:  Sully's analysis, and Jerry Dipoto's.  Could be Yoenis Cespedes for a fraction of the price.  Let's get him, and ... what was the McCutchen price again?  HEH

....

NO EXTRA CHARGE

Can't find the interview now, but here's the guts of it.  Fangraphs guy asked Trumbo about his (non-existent) walks.  Trumbo replied very intelligently.  I'd love to be Miguel Cabrera, he said, and I have tried that many times.  It just doesn't work for me.  I've got to let the bat fly.  Ain't my choice.

Many sabermetricians assume that players are just too dumb to realize that First Base On Ball Four is a good thing.  Perhaps many sabermetricians are too dumb to realize when they're oversimplifying?

....

Mark Trumbo looked very, very embarrassed in left field for the M's.  Cindy and I were at one game where he made (2) botches that would have ruined a lesser man's will to compete.  Honestly wondered if it were the worst-fielded game I ever saw from a Mariner.   But last year he said this:

.

Mark Trumbo, Baltimore: “I see the ball better in right field. I think the spin is slightly easier to handle. In left field, for whatever reason, there are a lot of obscure plays that seem to happen. Teams might try to hide someone in left field, maybe their weakest defender, but I find — especially for a right-handed thrower — it can be quite difficult at times. Left-handed throwers might have a little bit easier time going toward the line. Right field just comes a lot easier for me.”

.

And in hindsight, that makes sense.  On some of those LF plays in Safeco, he looked like he could not SEE the ball.  :: shrug ::  Not saying he's good in RF; I doubt he is.  Probably would rather have Boomstick's glove in RF than Trumbo's.  But he looked prohibitive in LF, and he may not be such a clown in right.

Tank O'Neill might become Mark Trumbo.  Or, just perhaps, we might sign Tank O'Neill's best-case scenario to begin with.  I'm all for the owners putting the money on the field, as opposed to keeping it all.

BABVA,

Dr D