1
Haniger is more valuable than O'Neill for me...O'Neill and Lewis and the pitcher we no longer need for Quintana...I'd do that.
.
Q. Do you rate Jose Quintana higher or lower than the rest of the world does?
A. If the rest of the world rates him a Grade A starter, signed cheap for 4 more years, then about the same. There's a real shortage of Opening Day starters throwing for Seth Smith money.
Hard to imagine a lot of pitchers who are a better bet to get 20 WAR the next four years. This guy's floor is way up there. Well, maybe he's a little scrunchy on the delivery compared to a loosy-goosy tall left hand horse like James Paxton.
... kidding. But the number one factor in reliability (REL) is whether you've shown you can hold up. Granted, pitchers get hurt, but granted again, prospects fail to become Jay Buhner.
.
Q. What was that rumor again, about the Sox' asking price? I've been too busy hopping between Julia Ioffe tweets and Breitbart's coverage of them to stay hip on baseball.
A. The Sox are said to have demanded, out of Houston,
(1) Francis Martes, about #30 prospect in baseball, and about where Taijuan was at his age
(2) Kyle Tucker, about #50 prospect in baseball, about as valuable as Tyler O'Neill though more of a Ben Gamel type hitter
(3) Joe Musgrove, a rookie Astros SP who was about as good as a RH Roenis Elias, but who Astros fans think is better than the first two
So you could compare that to Kyle Lewis, Tyler O'Neill and Ariel Miranda. Or to O'Neill, Nate Karns and a good third player (say, Steve Cishek).
.
Q. Do you buy in that the Sox would ask that?
A. Considering what they just hauled in for Chris Sale ... and it was almost as bad, the gold mine they got from the Nationals for Adam Eaton ... I'll guarantee you they're digging in on that kind of a package.
.
Q. Would you have traded your two best prospects for Andy Pettitte in 1995?
A. ... let's see, that would have been Roger Salkeld and Marc Newfield?* I guess it wouldn't have been as crazy as it might sound in retrospect. We'll give you a Scrub or three in return for a specific major Star. Doesn't have to be any particular Star. Not sure why the Sox aren't asking more.
Enjoy,
Dr D
Comments
2
I agree. 100% I do that deal (don't know if the Sox would).
For me Quintana is a more reliable ace than Sale, cheaper, younger, no signs of decline yet, and has an extra year of control.
He should be worth as much, or more, than Sale. Hes not. So lets go get him.
3
Too much to ask. Although since the ChiSox are now playing with house money they will likely continue to ask.
It's quibbling, but by the end of his first five years two of Pettite's best 4 seasons had come and gone. It's quibbling because I quite like the comparisona nd because Pettite was dang consistent.
Pettite was a 1.1 AA WHIP guy and a 1.25 AAA WHIP guy, but he indeed was a horse.
But in terms of AA/AAA numbers you have to split hairs to find any difference between he and Whalen/Povse/Moore. Not that they will all be Pettites, not my point. Heck, in A/AA Quintana was no better than those guys.
Here's my point. Between our three guys and Heston I am very confident that we have 150 innings of 100-ish OPS+ ball, if we can find the right one. I know all about the IF word. I think DiPoto is fairly confident of that, too.
So giving away our two best MiLB bats AND Miranda (who just might be pretty ducky himself) just doesn't seem prudent for the upgrade we get. I will point out that it looks like Houston walked away from the deal above.
Goodness knows that I would love to have a Quintana. But I'm not giving away the farm AND Miranda to get him. And I still think the Chris Sale lesson is not the haul they got but the initial "requests" that they didn't get. Even the BoSox said "No thanks" to the original price tag. The White Sox ended up with a heck of a 21 year old prospect and a young arm who throws 100....and two lesser pieces. Kopech may well end up in the pen. Yoncada's young and toolsy, but young Cuban bats aren't running 100% success rate in the bigs, you will remember.
Careful shopping even makes sense during the Christmas season.
4
...is that I think Tyler O'Neill is way overrated.
150 punchies in 575 plate appearances is a K rate than virtually never translates well to the major leagues, and even more raely from AA. He is going to have to jump a massive plateau to become a useful player. Right now, he's Dallas McPherson or Mike Olt or a hundred other recent phenoms who had tools but "trouble with the curve" (see the movie...it's good). So...for me, his value is "guy I can sucker some GM into taking so I can get a real baseball player".
5
Completely agree. O'Neill is a bust waiting to happen IMO.
6
And can respect the opinion. I see more Buhner than Bust. I'm betting on the fact that he gets there faster than Buhner did. Well, actually Buhner got there pretty quickly but the M's weren't buying what he could do (mash) and were focused more on the K's. In '88-'90 Buhner had 223, 226 and 185 big league PA's. He OPS+ed 112, 129 and 132. In '88 and '89 he had hit 19 homers in 449 PA's. OPS+ was running at about 120. But the M's (evidently) saw his 123 K's and down he went to start '90. We won 85 games that year and our opening day RF was named Greg Briley.
Buhner came up on June 1st (which happens to be my Over/Under date for O'Neill). That was game 50 for the M's. Buhner started 44 of the remaining 112 games, although he missed from mid-July to mid-August.
George Springer K'ed 30% of the time in AA and 25% in AAA. Houston didn't ever flinch when that rate was 33% as a big league rookie, 24% the next year and 24% again last season. They'll take the homers, thank you.
That's what I'm betting on. It may be a cruddy bet.
Here's where I am: Springer homered in 28 games last year. Houston won 18 of them. A 52% team became a 64% team. Kyle Seager homered in 30 games last season, Seattle won 20 of them. A 53% team became a 66% team. Lind homered in 18 games. We won 12. That homer math adds up.
Quintana has had 96 starts the last three seasons. The Sox have won 43 of them. A 46% team becomes a 45% team when he starts. Even if you factor out the Chris Sale starts the past three seasons (89 starts, 49 team wins), Quintana raises his team's win rate from 44% to 45%.
I know. The Sox haven't been a great team. But 30 HR's seems to deliver more wins than 30 Quintana starts.
I agree that the leap of faith is that O'Neill hits 30 HR's. But that's where I'm planting my flag.
Miranda, Gohara and Altavilla? Now I'm in. And I like those three guys quite a bit.
7
...I can certainly understand being high on O'Neill
The Springer comp is an interesting one.
O'Neill AA BB/PA: 10.8%
Springer : 11.8%
O'Neill AA K% : 26.1%
Springer : 30.0%
O'Neill AA BABIP: 0.377
Springer : 0.375
And as Doc pointed out, O'Neill is hitting the ball among the hardest in AA by the advanced metrics...
That has some weight.
I still think it's a high upside, very-high-risk prospect to hang your hat on when you want to be contending immediately.
8
I would love to add him, but I am not giving up our two best bats on the farm. Man, Boston didn't do that for Sale.
Karns, Lewis and Altavilla? I'm in. I can certainly find the right deal. 200 innings stud hosses don't grow on trees, even if they are #2 types.
9
There were 20 guys who hit 22-27 HR's in the AL last season. 22-27 because I think that is a pretty safe O'Neill bet.
OPS+'s were 87,89,93, 96, 101, 101, 102, 104, 106, 107, 110, 115, 115, 116, 117, 123, 126, 133, 144, 154.
The guys below 100 were (in order) Moreland, Perez (KC), Mazara and Schoop. At the top of the list were Abreu, Beltran, J.D. Martinez and Altuve.
The guys straddling the median are Kipnis (107) and Sano (110).
I didn't look at 30+ HR's, which I thought was a fair thiing to not do. But it is dang hard to hit 25 HR's and not be a minor offensive force. That said, the question is whether a 25 HR O'Neill's upside is 130 OPS+ or 108. Basically that's the difference between Seager and Smith. If he's only Smith then he expendable, without question.
At 25 homers, O'Neill is valuable but not untouchable. Will give you that. It is the rest of an over-loaded package that presents the issue, as well
Were I the White Sox, and playing with the house money, I think that I would hold on to Quintana right now (or make a Rumpelstiltskin demand) and trade him mid-summer when Contention Desperation sets in. That comes with some risk. But the pay-off will likely be higher.
Once Buhner becamse a regular, he ran 130 numbers like clockwork. O'Neill is unlikely to do that, one after the other, without 30 HR's or an improved Eye. Understood.
But mashing 21 year olds don't grow on trees, either. DiPoto likes this kid a bunch, I believe. I think he will try another path to our MOR arm.
10
Show me an above-average hitting MLBer that had a minor league K rate above 27% and an OPS under 880. No cherry picked seasons in the minors, full career.
They do not exist.
I don't mean this as an attack.. I enjoy your posts, Moe. I am just sick and tired of past GMs wasting prospects like this why they still have trade value. I've had this argument multiple times over the last two decades and none these prospects have ever panned out.
By keeping these guys you end up burning out their trade value and putting up with horrible production at the MLB level. Nothing good comes out of holding on these guys.
11
Joc Pederson, at 21, in the Southern League.
.278-.381-.497
22% K /13% BB
.219 ISO
Tyler O'Neill, at 21, in the Southern League
.293-.374-.508
26% K/11% BB
.215 ISO
Pederson has OPS+ed 113 and 119 in two big league seasons. 51 HR's combined. OK, he's a glovey CF type so you give him a bit of leeway.
Last year O'Neill dropped his K rate by 5% and upped his BB rate by 5%,
Rizzo, AA, age 20.
.263-.334-.481
21% K/9% BB
.218 ISO.
Slightly better K/BB, year younger. It was the next year that he went nuts in AAA. He's not bad in Chicago, I might remind you.
Dahl, 21-22 at AA.
.278-.337-.458. 25%/8% .180 ISO Did pretty well last season.
Trumbo at 23. .291-.333-.452 K rate was only 17% but BB rate was just 6%. ISO was tiny.
Mazara K'ed only 19% but did't hit nearly as well.
I looked at all three AA leagues back to '09......and Taro is dead right: Tough to find guys in this template who went on to good MLB success. But most of the really high K guys don't hit anywhere near O'Neill (and the guys above) in AA. Some of those guys above are pretty good, you might notice. Trumbo is about to get $60M , or in the neighborhood.
I am open to trading him....but not with everybody else along with him.
Kick the tires. Get the right guy. Spend wisely.
12
Thanks Moe (should have mentioned I'm dividing by PA since you have to give credit to BBs). Even the guys you mentioned though, none of them are really comps to O'Neill or clear the 880 OPS, 27% K threshold.
Pederson had a 21% minor league K-rate, slightly high but acceptable. 932 minor league OPS.
Rizzo also 20% K-rate. 914 OPS.
Trumbo 19% K-rate, which actually low for a power hitter.
A 20-21% minor league K rate is actually pretty common for a lot of successful MLB power hitters. 23%+ is when I start getting nervous unless it comes with serious production, BBs, and high BABIP.
O'Neill is at 28.7% career (26.6 % last year).
13
Springer = Ks as a result of pitch stalking (minor career 955 OPS)
O'Neill isn't a pitch stalker (minor career 867 OPS), and you MUST be, if you are going to be successful with a high K approach in the majors. He lacks the pitch recognition skills.
I mean, Springer put up OPS well over 1.000 and even over 1.100 in AA/AAA. Hes also a much better athlete, although thats irrelevant for hitting (for the most part).
14
Springer's AA OPS was .895.
O'Neill's was .882
Just saying...
Springer's huge OPS in AAA was in a hitter's haven, as was his huge OPS in the CALL league.
Also...how can you tell that O'Neill isn't stalking pitches...or that Springer was? Their walk rate is nearly identical...
Always did love your analysis taro...I don't have the close level scouting on O'Neill so would welcome your further dissection of the two. By the numbers, they've had nearly identical AA careers. My gut instinct when looking at O'Neill's full minor league career is the same as yours...he feels like a big bust in the making. What say you?
15
Springer = minor career 955 OPS, 26.4 K%, 12.5 BB%, .257 Iso, .379 BABIP
O'Neill = minor career 867 OPS, 28.7 K%, 8.7 BB%, .240 Iso, .348 BABIP
O'Neill has been significantly less productive, K'ed more, walked less, hit for less power, and for a worse BABIP than Springer in his minor league career (not just AA).
To be a pitch stalker with high Ks in the majors, you need to DESTROY the ball when you get your pitch and you need to be able to let some borderline pitches go.
I honestly haven't scouted O'Neill much either than a brief look at his swing. I don't feel that I need to, because his statline tells me the whole story in this case.
16
O'Neill was not a heralded prospect two years ago...he had upside but a lot of problems as well...but he started destroying the ball in AA this year..as in...actually destroying it. As in...enough to get noticed by stat geeks for his hard hit percentages in AA.
So you have to ask...is this new O'Neill the real one or did he have a big "up" year?
17
Sell high. We're overselling how much he hit in AA. The high K's were still present (26.1%). Still not walking enough to be TTO hitter. And still not enough power (.215 Iso).
If players like O'Neill went on to successful careers we'd see more player types like this in the majors with similar minor league progressions. But we don't.
I can't think of a single above-average hitter in the bigs that had a K rate above 27% and an OPS under 880 in the minors.
18
Also looks like Mitch Haniger's K-rate is 17.6% minor league career and only 19% or so in the bigs...while boasting a better K/BB than Tank.
Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm :D
19
...but I would point out that O'Neill is 21 years old.
20
Not a fight. Moe is awesome.
I just don't believe in O'Neill type prospects at all, and want to be clear why. Successful MLB hitters with that profile just don't exist.
21
I've enjoyed the discussion, Taro. Certainly, there has been no fight here.
Taro has made me dig deeper. Which is why I love this site. See post #11 (or thereabouts as things change) above. Some successful hitters do exist....but not very darn many.
O'Neill's upside remains as a 30-ish HR basher. But I will admit the odds are longer (based on AA guys) than I estimated.
23
.895 at AA. .973 if you cherry-pick only his age 23 year. He did indeed go nuts on the PCL in his 327 PA's there, age 23-24.
24
For me, if we're adding a top notch low cost pitcher like Quintana, using our most likely MLB outfield prospect, I would ease the pain of that loss by throwing Jose Bautista a 2 year+vesting option contract and forcing Gamel to AAA to take Tanks place.
Bautista had a 129 wRC+ in road games last year, compared to 113 in Toronto. He's still a beast as a #5 hitter. My thinking is teams played the shift effectively against him on the turf. Could be wrong.
25
But I think there's agreement that Tank and Quintana as centerpieces are fine.
It's how much pain you have to absorb beyond that to make the deal work.
And Hahn has somehow been inflicting a lot.
Maybe best for JD to promote Tank on the basis of this KATOH ranking of top 100 prospects on projected 6-year WAR (batter and pitcher):
| 22 | Yoan Moncada | Red Sox | 2B | 7.1 |
| 23 | Tyler O’Neill | Mariners | OF | 7.0 |
| 24 | Willie Calhoun | Dodgers | 2B | 6.9 |
| 25 | Mitchell Haniger | Diamondbacks | OF | 6.9 |
26
It's Mr. Haniger. :D
Telling youse guys...Haniger is the real stud OF prospect, not O'Neill.
28
I'm not giving up for Quintana more than they got for Sale. But in the right deal I may well close my eyes and make the swap. But the APW (Available Pitching World) doesn't revolve around Quintana only.
There are other ways to skin this cat. I would prefer THAT path and we keep Tank.
29
Don't know if I have a point here, but these are K rates for our key hitters from last year: (* = minors/majors; ** = minors only)
< 15%
Heredia* 12.6%
Cano 14%
Ruiz 14.2%
Segura 14.6%
15%-20%
Seager 16%
Gamel* 18.6%
Haniger* 18.7%
20%-25%
Smith 20.3%
Vogelbach* 20.7%
Valencia 22.2%
25%>
Martin 25.9%
O'Neill** 27%
Zunino* 29.6%
Don't know how much this colors JD's opinions...but O'Neill is clearly different from the other guys in the outfield mix.
(Plus: do you think Ruiz may be playing more than people expect?)
30
Once you're in the majors, a high K-rate is fine (within reason) if you can make it up with other skills.
A high minor league K-rate is a really bad indicator for MLB success unless the player has rediculous power and enough TTO skill to make it up. Like Miguel Sano or George Springer (both with minor league OPS well over 900, high BB rates, and massive power+BABIP.
For instance a K-rate in the mid 20s in the minors, usually translates to a K-rate well over 30 in the majors. If you are running a BB rate under 10 on top of that without an Iso over .200, its almost impossible to have control of the strike zone at that point and you wash out.
In order to control the K-rate as they move up to the bigs, guys that succeed usually need to sacrifrice either more Ks OR power to be successful or both (if they are not succesful). A prospect like Springer has power to give up (sacrificed power to maintain a 24% K rate). A prospect like Sano, decided to keep the power and strikeout at a 35% clip (but now low avg hurts his production).
ALL these player types lose some BABIP ability and BB% as they move to the MLB, even the successful ones.
Those guys still had production to give and an eye above the acceptable borderline threshold to make it work. O'Neill does not.
31
Or to frame it differently, even successful high minor league K guys have more significant production drop offs when they graduate to the MLB:
George Springer 816 MLB OPS (955 OPS minors) : 15% dropoff
Miguel Sano 835 OPS (934 OPS minors) : 11% dropoff
Chris Carter 777 MLB OPS (913 OPS minors) : 15% dropoff
Kris Bryant aka The Unicorn 900 MLB OPS (1.092 OPS minors) : 17% dropoff
These are the MOST successful active players of the TTO family. Usually a guy gives up around 15% (Sano still early in his career).
A similar adjustment to O'Neill would give him an OPS in the mid 700s, assuming he could even successfully transition. Not good enough for a below average glove in a corner.
32
...guys in this template. I didn't check that out.
Tank
At 19: 33%K/8% BB .250 Avg./.217 ISO
At 20: 31%K/6% BB .260 Avg./.218 ISO
At 21: 26%K/11% BB .293 Avg./.215 ISO
K's drop, BB's go up, Avg. does too, ISO shows no decline.
Trumbo:
20: 21%/9% .220/.135
21: 19%/6% .272/.153
22: 17%/6% .281/.259
23: 21%/10% .301/.276 (Salt Lake)
DiPoto was in Arizona in '10 when Trumbo came up. But went to LA at the end of '11. What do you think: Any chance he sees O'Neill as Trumbo-lite.
33
Trumbo's K-rates were actually fairly low for a power hitting minor leaguer. 19% career.
Even so, Trumbo-lite production wise is not impossible if O'Neill beats the massive odds against him.. Its just, Trumbo-lite probably isn't good enough to be a big leaguer.
34
Meant Trumbo-esque. That's the 30 HR pop I've been pumping up. I'm interested in this AAA year......if his K rate drops again...he's the guy I think he is. Watch for that in ST and early in the year.
Raul Mondesi is a bit similar...except his AA K rate was about 24%. Walked just 3% of the time in AA. Didn't hit nearly as well as O'Neill in AA. A Ball was 19% and 5%. AAA was 20% and 4%. Mondesi and O'Neill have the same age arc.
Mondesi was .770-.738-.797 OPS in A-AA-AAA. AAA was in Albuquerque even. But something clicked when he went to LA part way through his Age 22 season. Between then and his age 32 season he was below .794 only once. The key was that his K rate dropped from AA (where it was O'Neill like) to about 16-18%. Even then he was only hitting .280-.309-.449 when he got the call-up.
.271-.331-.485 in the Bigs. 271 HR's. Mondesi was a force for a bit....but wasn't one in Farm Ball. 5'11 and 202. O'Neill is 5'11 and 210.
Trumbo is .251-.303-.473. With 178 HR.
I've had to look some to find many big success stories with Tank's A Ball K rate. Get it down this year....again....3rd year running and I'll breath a bit more deeply.
I'll trust in that.
36
As to your other point, ya! I actually did notice that the successful TTO types hit BETTER as they reach AA/AAA than they did overall in their minor league careers.
I hadn't noticed that before, and an interesting take away from looking at these guys closer.
37
DiPoto hasn't made a trade in days. He must be getting itchy. The guy that fits the parameters best (still effective veteran, tradeable, mid-rotation) is Ervin Santana. It would not surprise me to see a deal for him. Karns/Miranda + Gohara + Heredia + DJ Peterson/Drew Jackson for Santana + prospects? Or put in Altavilla for Heredia? The Twins have a pretty good farm, but lots of needs. If the Ms could avoid giving up Lewis or O'Neill and still get Santana, it would be a major coup for JD - definitely a go-for-it-now move.
Then again, if they trade Dozier, maybe Seth Smith would be a good add to their clubhouse. Smith + Karns + DJ + Tyler Smith (to take 2B)?
Just trying to get some conversation started while snowed in.
38
I wouldn't give Gohara and only Gohara for Santana. I'd rather keep Karns or Miranda than have Santana.
39
We had a foot of snow yesterday and last night. Today the high was 9 degrees F. Trying to find something to talk about that hadn't yet been discussed. I don't particularly care for Santana, either, other than he has been relatively effective the past 4 or so years, but he fits the general criteria DiPoto is supposedly looking for. And he is somewhat better than some others being discussed, or might be available for a reasonable cost back (and to me, Karns and Smith and Smith would be ideal - all not really in the plans going forward). Do you have a favored candidate for DiPoto to get?
40
The following, in no particular order, are some of the pitchers I hope Jerry targets in trades that I think are achievable:
Cobb, Smyly, Odorizzi, Shoemaker, Duffy, Pomeranz, and Gio Gonzalez... otherwise I might rather gamble on Anderson and / or the spaghetti that Dipoto has already accumulated.