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What would be cool, would be if the Mariners had three Edwin Diazes, two right and one left.  Hey, it could happen.  It did that one year when we had two different 15-game winning streaks.

But failing that, and assuming that Jerry Dipoto is not crazy about the idea of spending $1xx,yyy,zzz.00 on a second Edwin Diaz, we're left arguing about where the 8th inning stands.  Tony Zych doesn't count because he just had a surgery that Dr. D has never heard of.

So the 8th inning depth chart, at least in SSI's virtual universe, is:

(1) Steve Cishek - sighhhh - nominally serviceable if targeted against RH-heavy 8ths

(2) Nick Vincent - heavier sigggghhh - essentially a drone "average solid MLB attack copter" being used for nuclear missions

(3) Dan Altavilla - who is Edwin Diaz Lite and who brings us to our current stub

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We've hardly talked about Dan Altavilla.  Here is his career in a nutshell.  From 1992 to 2015 he was a stock(-y!) pitching prospect who looked good, as all pitching prospects do.  Going into 2016 he ranked like #20, or #30, or #40 among M's prospects.  For example, Fangraphs' projection:

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20. Dan Altavilla, RHP, VIDEO, High-A

Altavilla responded well to facing High-A competition, putting together some impressive starts while showcasing his mid-90s fastball in a tough league. His secondary stuff lags behind his heater, and his overall command is just so-so, leaving him looking like a guy who should end up in the bullpen. Should the Mariners make that move, he could focus on just his fastball and slider, which looks to be his best offspeed delivery.

Fastball: 55/60/60 Slider: 45/50/55 Changeup: 35/40/40 Command: 40/40/45
Overall: 35/40/45

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Note the overall rating of "45 at best" and "40 if you're smart."  This in reference to a class-A ball kid who that very year would be smoking ML hitters!  IN 2016, Dipoto's crew knew better.  (As should YOU know better, than to listen to any pundits other than Dr. D and G-Moneyball... )  The M's shoved Altavilla front-and-center for JACKEDson's AA team, and he did --- > Awesome.  He became their closer and in fact the league's closer, in their All-Star game.

Late in 2016 the Mariners shoved him middle-of-the-pack-head-down-make-no-noise into ---- > the Safeco bullpen.  (?!?)  IN that bullpen, Altavilla threw better than anybody, other than Edwin Diaz.  If you sort the Mariners' relievers by FIP, which is to sort them by Three True Outcomes*, you realize the M's had three good guys.  

One of them, we shedded to the Cubs for Dan Vogelbach.  The other was Diaz.  The third was Dan Altavilla.  (Evan Scribner doesn't count is 'cause he's a swing man.  Tony Zych doesn't count because the doctors did very weird things to his arm this winter.)

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LET'S!  GO TO!  the VIDEO!  TAPE!

IN Seattle, Altavilla's stuff looked as follows:

(1) "Electric" - see this link to Servais and this link to Servais

(2)  Altavilla throws EXACTLY two pitches, which is a huge plus from Dr. D's control tower in the middle of the Mariners landscape

(3) The slider is thrown:  very hard, around 90 MPH ... with a drop, not a slide ... with a late drop ... and befuddling arm action.

(4) The fastball averaged 96.4 MPH in the big leagues, touching 100 MPH (compare Diaz' 97.3 tying Kimbrel for #2 in AL, Zach Britton's 96.3 for #9 in AL)

Leaving us with command and pitchability.  What Dr. D saw in 2016 was middle-of-the-road command, which is fine and dandy here, and the automatic "pitchability" that any reliever has when he's only got two choices of pitch.   For!  the!  Thousandth!  Time!  Two pitches are exxxxxponentially simpler to use than are three.  And this is the reason that both Diaz and Altavilla kicked tail and chewed bubble gum.  Would that the beat writers would lay off the "third pitch?!" shtick on the James Paxtons and Luiz Goharas of the world.

/snowflake meltdown //back to goodness and joy

Here is a look at Altavilla's slider; he misses badly with his spot, but ... the pitch has the velocity and shape of a classic Felix dry spitter, and it plays off the 96-98 fastball.

It is a simple, repeatable game that Altavilla throws.  The Mariners are left hoping that nothing goes wrong in March, that Altavilla keeps throwing the same pitches.  If he does, he's in there.

Enjoy,

Dr D