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If you liked Wade Miley, you'll love Yovani Gallardo. Let us take a moment to mourn the passing of Taijuan Walker and Nate Karns. I guess there really is something to the idea of a burned-out MLB(TM) innings eater. Gallardo becomes the proverbial "more usable" rotation fixture who will --- > pitch about as well as Taijuan or Karns did in a DOWN season.
If you are optimistic about a return to the form of 3 years ago, don't let me rain on your parade. :- ) But what the Mainframe is seeing is simply a lack of life on his fastball and slider, and a trend down that began at the All-Star break two years ago. A 6.4% swinging strike rate is at the very bottom of the league; compare Jered Weaver's 8.1%.
There's no "there" there. He's just a guy who works a minus fastball, and an okay drop slider, does know the hitters, does have a feel for when to nibble, does execute a game plan.
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Dipoto's own sales pitch is that --- > "he's been a major league pitcher for a decade" and that --- > in 2015 he had 4.0 WAR before last year's 0.6 "and we'd like to find a happy medium." But
(1) That WAR in 2015 was only 2.4 on Fangraphs, and I'll go with that when you have a 5+ strikeout rate and 3.3 walk rate, and
(2) A "happy medium" is 180 innings' worth of a 2.0 WAR pitcher.
There you go again: if things break right, he's Wade Miley. The Mariners must have REALLY soured on Taijuan Walker and Nate Karns, eh? It's not ONLY that I'm unhappy to see Karns go. Not ONLY. :- ) Gallardo immediately becomes my least favorite Mariner to watch. As with Elias-Smith, I dislike the sentiment of this trade and I dislike the specific pitcher.
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EDITOR'S CHOICE
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[Taro] UGH. Yovani is awful. And now you've opened up a hole in RF for no reason.
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Never bet against this man.
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[MtGrizzly] Well, it's more correct to say that he was awful in 2016. Before 2016, he was a fairly reliable mid-3's ERA/180 inning guy and he's only 30. That's the pitcher DiPoto wants/hopes he's getting. Shrug - he's one more guy to throw into the #4/5 starter pool.
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The reasonable and optimistic take, but even there, "one more guy to throw into the BOR pool" ?! Was that the goal for our rotation? You know you've hit rock bottom when you're sighing wistfully for Jason Hammel.
Here are Gallardo's splits two years ago: .230 / .295 / .320 in the first half, .320 / .380 / .510 in the second. This disastrous 2H was followed by a disastrous 2016. If it's roto, that's the last guy I'm drafting. But, as we know, Dipoto is much better-informed than we are.
Let's hope. The magic CIA intel didn't help us a ton with Wade Miley.
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[Diderot quoting HQ] Missed two months with shoulder injury after rough April, but things hardly improved upon return. Posted career-worst Cmd, BPV, and xERA, while FpK continues to speak to strained relationship with strike zone. The pitcher you remember from 2009-12 no longer exists. It's time to move on.
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Which woulda been my take. Diderot goes on to opine that Dipoto will get us another pitcher. We certainly hope so, but then what is the Seth Smith offload? Just making space for Jarrod Dyson? Well, okay .... LAST year Dipoto turned me around with a last-minute Adam Lind add...
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[G-Moneyball] Dipoto is trying to take care of his pitchers with OF gloves. Here's hoping those gloves can hit some. I'm not sure where Dyson plays since he can't platoon with Martin (both are lefties). Maybe Martin is on the move too. Just waiting for it all to shake out.
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Now, if your idea is lousy pitching that throws fly balls into the airport full of center fielders ... why not an innings eater with 2+ walks, like Fister, rather than a 4+ walks guy like Gallardo?
But agreed. This is indeed the good news. In chess we'd call this "consistent play," with every move building in harmony with every other. Dipoto has his "run prevention model" in which you hope that the OF'ers, and Safeco, shave 0.50 or more off the staff ERA.
It could happen,
Dr D
in the OF. Not sure my satisfaction with that group was warranted, but it sure did *seem* like they could make someone like Ryan Franklin into a respectable BOR option.
On that note, Jason Hammel *is* still available--and I'm guessing he'd like to pitch in front of this new OF unit...
The OF is rediculous. I miss that era too.. Dipoto paid a pretty premium for it, but it will be glorious.
Before reading this one. Glad we all remember the Good Old Days still, when we were blowing the playoffs in the last couple weeks of the season. Guess that feels like last year too. I came onto the Times/P-I boards the offseason after 2003 and met Doc and a bunch of other people then. Nice to still be around. Not as nice to still be waiting on the playoffs.
Can't wait to see how confused MLB 17 is when I load up the Mariners roster. Getting a hit with this OF will be a stretch, I'll tell you that.
I still think the logical FA signings went by us in the first couple of FA days, when Colon and Dickey signed. 170 reliable innings.
Ah....Fister would be fine, too.
If these are Parts I and II of II, I'm still scratching my head a bit, even if I looks at it as P for P and OF for OF.
But it seems something like this: Detroit (for example) wants a CF for Martinez (for example). So we need another CF'er. To get a CF we have to give up a young arm. That's pretty standard. To replace that young arm we give up a LH bat.
Martin and what two prospects get you McCutchen?
But to get the player we really want, we have to do the other parts first. I hope. But to tell you the truth, we all thought we needed 150+ innings of insurance WHEN we had Karns. Now that we lost him...we still really need 150 innings of insurance. Unless it is Moore. I can buy that.
But then, just maybe, we go buy a Trumbo back. He's really not worse in RF than Smith or Martinez. He hits 47 HR's every year (well, one year in a row). You might get him for one year and an option. He can play 1B.
But you could just buy him anyway. so that doesn't make sense.
Maybe DiPoto is dead locked in on Tank O'Neill, RF Bat, Soon.
Or Trade Part III. Tomorrow. I'm good with that. Otherwise, the 1 year of Dyson isn't worth the 4 of Karns.
A "control" SP coming off a 4.65 BB/9 with an "out" pitch that got hit at a .339/.410/.576 clip.
Wrapping my head around how he could possibly pan out (short of rewinding the clock).
But *if* he did in fact improve over the season, as I saw argued elsewhere, with his 'out pitch' then it becomes significantly more likely that a rebound is within reach and not just a pipe dream.
I wanted Gallardo five years ago, back when he was close to Quintana's current level. Now, comparing him to Hammel (which assumes Gallardo REBOUNDS), is a different story altogether.
Still and all, I like the *idea* of Gallardo, and in a vacuum him for Smith made perfect sense. Neither is counted on to be a core contributor, whereas there's little (or no!) upside to Smith but there is significant upside to Gallardo, and he plugs a bigger org need than Smith did. Pedro Alvarez, Chris Carter and Brandon Moss are still out there if the team thinks it needs some more hitting, and they shouldn't cost more than Smith's '17 salary.
That's a loaded premise, obviously, and I suppose the same reasoning could be used to poo-poo the Gallardo add by pointing to Fister and Hammel.
I do like Gallardo's upside, though. Even though it's a long shot that he'll reach it.
The Gallardo for Smith swap was fine for me, almost immediately. I could understand it (even in a vacuum) and live with it. It's the total of the two trades, with the concern that there isn't a 3rd, that bothers me.
Will see.
DiPoto can be crazy like a fox.
Interestingly, it's from the two rookie OF's, the ones with some hitting promise, that we need a bat to blossom (in a hurry). There's a lot riding here on some offensive production, 100+ OPS would help, from Gamel and/or Haniger. Or maybe the 3rd possible rooke, O'Neill. If one of those guys does that, say 105, then all things are going to work out.
Go team.
nice article on Gallardo - http://www.star-telegram.com/sports/mlb/texas-rangers/article10678964.html
I really appreciate the connection to the man behind the athelete -- good article. Now I'm rooting for Yovani, even if he is a longshot.
Per Rosenthal: "Mariners plan to use a revolving door approach to the fifth spot in their rotation and are open to adding some inexpensive depth to accompany current candidates Ariel Miranda, Rob Whalen and Chris Heston."
So...Gulp - this is likely the rotation going into ST. Felix, Kuma, Paxton, Gallardo, Revolving Door. They are going to need that elite OF defense.
Potential disaster. Even Felix and Kuma are in steep decline, and those are your #2 and #3 starters. Paxton is our best starter by far and has never been healthy for a full season.
This is not enough.
Had soured me almost completely on Karns... Couldn't get past the fifth inning and a bit of a bad attitude, not much control and I never saw the big Strikeout arm I thought we were getting, certainly not consistently... The fact that he failed so miserably out of the pen was concerning as well. So I am not nearly as put off by unloading him. I never worry about the whole "4 years of control" thing with a very unproven asset like Karns... control of what? Control of his next four years of battling inconsistency and pouting when being sent down to AAA to work on stuff??
Gallardo I am ambivalent on for the most part, but he has at least had more success at the MLB level than wishing and hoping on a guy like Karns.
Mostly I am left wondering why JeDi (do we still call him that? It has been a while since I have read or posted here) hasn't gotten off his hands and signed Hammel AND Fister... that cant be asking that much and seems like they would both make that "revolving door" way better...
Maybe they are looking for guaranteed rotation spot? Who wouldn't want to resurrect their career in Seattle with that defense behind them?