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Nick Vincent is dead.
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K-PAX v2.0
You're going to win so much that you beg Paxton "please, can we stop winning" and he's going to tell you No. We are going to keep winning. The same goes for SSI rapture following said wins. If you don't like Pro's vs Joe's embarrassment, don't watch Paxton games and certainly don't click over to SSI basking in Paxton's glory the next morning.
The White Sox' run was flukish. A solo home run on a 3-2 fastball, 95 MPH, that was not possible to hit. Remember, Sanchez is right handed, so this mighta hit him in the thigh if he'd been crowding the plate:
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Except for that, another 4.0 innings, another 0 BB, another 4 K. An 11:1 control ratio over 9 innings, which is :: hushed tones :: reminding more and more of Randy Johnson. Reviewing the facts of the case, Your Honor
(1) Paxton threw over 60% fastballs, each one between 94-98 MPH per Brooks. He threw it free and easy, almost steering it into the glove. K-Pax v2.0, the painter.
(2) His second pitch was the Kershaw yellow hammer. It was Cy Young level. Huge sharp drop, low in the zone, -16 MPH to his fassstball, 9 of 14 for strikes, four garbage misses, nothing put into fair play.
(3) His fosh and change were fine. Didn't use them much.
(4) Paxton grumped, after the game, that he had lousy stuff.
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Mike Blowers pointed out one at-bat ... Paxton whizzed a 97 hairball in there and the batter, cheating, smacked it into the 1B seats. Noticing the kind of aggressive/fastball swing the batter had, Paxton came right back with a yakker for an ugly swing, 0-and-2. Then he foshed one on the black for strike three. Blowers was pleased. When you can adjust in one pitch, that's a "quick adjustment."
So, looking forward to Paxton/Zuumball reading the hitter's plan, and selecting the assassination weapons appropriate to the particular bad guy. Agent 006 deserves to be dropped into a satellite bowl brutally; Draxx should be operatically airlocked into outer space.
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GOE-GOE MARINERS
Apologies to the Go-Go White Sox, but Moe pointed out this superb article at Fangraphs on Seattle's "Grand Outfield Experiment" (GOE to you special ops bloggers). Eno Sarris' claim is that (1) it is verrrrry rare for a team to attempt to field three centerfielders across the warning track.
The reason Sarris considers it an "experiment" is because (2) you necessarily are going to have a weak offense. But (3) the Mariners have a fly ball park, and a fly ball staff, to underline the value of the defensive side of the question.
By the way, huge credit to Sarris for noticing that the Cameron-Ichiro-Winn outfield in 2003 qualified in spirit if not in letter. The 2003 Mariners won 93 games with OPS+ of 107, 108, 112 from its CF's.
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It's technically true that STEAMER projects an 89 OPS+ for Dyson, Martin and Haniger. Dipoto's idea is that even if these three are the worst hitting OF crew in the league, the M's still win because their infield/DH is the best hitting infield in the league.
The qualifer is, Jarrod Dyson is a better offensive player than 89 would lead you to believe. Dyson created 5.0 runs per 27 outs last year, including his bases on the bases. And SABRMatt tells us that Mitch Haniger is likely to hit for better than an 89 OPS+.
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:: SLAP :: UND TAKE ZIS MIT YOU, Dept.
Dillon Overton kinda reminded you of Jesse Chavez; looked like an A's pitcher. Oh, wait. Overton WAS a Beane draft pick, 2nd round. I disliked Overton the first couple hitters, but he grew on me. Jamie Moyer pitch mix, with 60% fastballs 30% changeups 10% curves ... when the curve is the 3rd pitch in this arsenal, the batter has no chance. Really the batter can only process 1.5, maybe 2.0 pitches; the third one he has to tip his cap. Overton's curve was a cap-tipper in this game.
Still not my kinda pitcher; he throws a slowball and I haven't yet been acclimated to plus command of it. Does he have it? The arm action on the change didn't seem all that great. But he's got 6:0 CTL in 8 innings and when he had 3 pitches working ... well, Jesse Chavez.
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Guillermo Heredia is batting .419 and half of those hits are extra bases. Lou Gehrig, baby. His takes are also nice and early, even on wicked pitches.
Mitch Haniger ... nope, I owe it to Matty to split out his engraved apology.
BABVA,
Dr D
Comments
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I do feel like the possibly lighter hitting outfield is somewhat ablated by our double play tandem having run an .870 OPS last season...
But further, if you look back through the Mariner's pitching stats as a team, you might notice 4 years that stand out: 2001, 2003, 2009, and 2014 are all seasons where the Mariners pitchers beat their FIP by more than 10%, and each year except 2014 was a year in which they used a 3 CF Outfield.
2001: 3.54 ERA / 4.12 FIP - Outfield of Cameron, Ichiro, and a platoon of Al Martin & Stan Javier (who had 6,000 CF innings between them, playing at the end of their careers)
2003: 3.76 ERA / 4.29 FIP - Outfield of Cameron, Ichiro, and Winn - Outfield UZR: +49.5 / DRS: +32
2009: 3.87 ERA / 4.39 FIP - Outfield of Gutierrez, Ichiro, and (planned as) Endy Chavez in left (we were questioning the 3 CF paradigm that year too, until Endy's knee exploded in a collision), followed by Ryan Langerhans, Michael Saunders, and Wlad Balentien - Outfield UZR: +62.4 / DRS: +48
2014: 3.17 ERA / 3.61 FIP - Outfield of Austin Jackson (until his trade, when this became the team WITHOUT a true CF), Dustin Ackley, Michael Saunders, James Jones, Endy Chavez, and Stephen Romero - Outfield UZR: -4.2 / DRS: 2 (Honestly I'm shocked it's that high). 2014's FIP beaters were lead by Felix Hernandez (2.14/2.56), Chris Young (3.65/5.02), Tom Wilhelmsen (2.27/3.74), and Joe Beimel (2.20/4.18), while most of the other pitchers were pretty close to their FIPs, so I'll chalk that season up to fluke.
The other seasons, however, show a much more equal distribution of ERA gains vs. FIP. So the CF hat trick has kinda been tried a few times in Seattle. The trick seems to be about having the offense to go with it. The 2001 M's had their top 5 hitters post a 120+ OPS+, and their top 11 batters sported OPS+ of 89 and above. The 2016 Mariners traded or let go 7 of their 11 top hitters from last season, but the 4 they kept fit the template, so I guess we'll see. Gotta say though, looking back at the starting pitching in 2001 is a lot like looking at this season WITHOUT James Paxton loaded and ready to go.
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...not the year we traded him away. :)
I was all emotional at the trade deadline approached...the team was competitive and I was demanding that they DO SOMETHING to contend or I was gone. They swung the Austin Jackson trade, the Kendrys Morales trade and the deal for San Diego's outcast platoon "bat"...I thought Jackson was better than he turned out to be so I stuck it out.