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PLAYOFFS BA-BEH
Still -1.5. But the three teams between us and 'Rays are all .500, so we're the thinnest possible whisker behind them. In this first half of parity, Matt figures 88 wins could easily qualify and 85 might possibly. ... let's say 87; the M's would have to go 51-38 to do that. That's equivalent to a 93-win season, and 93 wins over the course of one-half a year is exponenentially easier than being a 93-win TEAM. So, nothing farfetched in the least.
Tuesday's game was extra innings but it was not a 50-50 coin flip. The M's had 15 baserunners to the Tigers' 10, and a 5:6 EYE compared to the Tigers' 3:8.
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K-SWAG
He could play for my club, I think.
Is he in the middle of an off year? Nah. If you look carefully at his statline he's doing the same thing he's done for several years: batting .270 give or take, EYE ratio of 0.60 give or take, 90 RBI give or take, 7.3000% swing and miss rate to the micron. (In fact his fish rate is going down, suggesting further pitch-recog development.)
What has "changed" is his homers per fly ball, which is a luck stat. Three years previous, 13%, 12%, 14%. Now this year 6%. Not because of him; his launch velo is over 90 MPH and his distance is over 220 feet. He just has seen six or eight deep flies caught on the warning track. It'll change.
Last player on the club to worry about is Kyle Seager. Literally. Write his name in the lineup and move your attention to your problems. :- )
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BEN GAME-R's LUCK STATS
Gamel had three hits again. Seeing-eye grounders? Balls dropping in between OF's? Um, no. Actually: (1) a double whistled cleanly into the corner ... (2) a low line drive that skipped off the cut of the grass into CF ... and (3) a power-alley home run. Gamel is benefitting from BABIP luck but he is also laying enemy pitchers waste.
You can't sustain a .400 BABIP for a career, or even for a season. But you can deserve one for a month. This is what it looks like. Gamel's white-hot, like Zunino is.
...
Malcontent produced his usual interesting stat splits to wonder whether --- > Recent/Leadoff Gamel is going for more contact than Early/Tablesetter Gamel. It will be a great thought to keep an eye on. Watching it closely tonight, my subjective impression was that he was taking the same approach as always. Could be wrong.
If I'm not wrong, it's great news. Gamel's recent 95% contact rate, and his willingness to go after pitchers earlier in the count, would speak to his gaining ground in pitch anticipation.
...
Corran wondered how high Gamel's BABIP might stay, if things broke right. Maybe super high, I guess. Wouldn't expect it, because BABIP is usually driven by blistering-hot grounders through the infield (Goldschmidt) or blazing speed down the line (Ichiro). But as a fast lefty hitter with a lot of line drives, the BABIP will be high.
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ARIEL MIRANDA
A lefty facing a tough RH lineup, he gave up three or four sizzled shots early on. They weren't even on bad pitches; the two-run homer (IIRC) was on a 3-2 pitch that Zunino wanted in, and got in. The Tigers looked to me like they had the pitches.
But then Miranda threw a few changeups in the dirt, and the Tigers fished, and suddenly there was some doubt in their minds. From there Miranda went AHA!, started expanding the zone on the overaggressive Tigers, and he got into a rocking chair. Like we sez, he's still in his first 25 starts as a major leaguer.
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GUILLERMO HEREDIA
The internet vortex ate a separate post here. Dr. D had, in April, wondered about a comp between Gamel and Brett Gardner. Nope, Gardner is an elite speed player. Gamel is a different type of tweener altogether. Every "tweener" OF with limited power hopes to be Gardner, like every 87 MPH lefty hopes to be Jamie Moyer. Many are called, few are chosen.
But! What do you think about the similarities between HEREDIA and Gardner? Heredia is a true +15 runs defender and what if it was HE who comp'ed to Gardner all along?
In 2005 as a 25-year-old, Gardner hit something like .270/.345/.379 in half a year. His first three years, up to age 28, he OPS'ed 87, 105, 92, going from memory. Heredia does not steal bases like Gardner, but you and I are hoping for more batting skill than Gardner had early on.
If Dr. D was looking for an glove-first Tweener who is worth 3-4 WAR per year, but who will accept a role, maybe he was looking in the wrong place?
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MISCELLANY
1) Mike Zunino got ripped off on a strike-3 call by C.B. Bucknor, the worst ump in the league, and glared at Bucknor. Was glad to see it rather than the previous, ultra-meek Zunino acceptances of such calls. Maybe it means he's thinking of himself as a hitter?
Amigo axs, when is it safe to believe in Zunino? LOL. After about five hundred more at-bats of looking comfortable when managing a pitch count, it sez here. :- ) But as we stand he's got special talents it's pleasant to watch.
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2) Edwin Diaz pitched for the third (!) straight game. I didn't see the velo charts, but in game 2 he was hitting 100 MPH despite the back-to-back. Whatever the reason, he is appearing to manifest better stamina and strength.
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3) Looking VERY forward to seeing Max Povse and his Ultra King Felix (TM) pitch sequences. Lookout Landing has a detailed review of his pitch arsenal. People scratch their heads over the idea of Povse in the bullpen. Kids these days! No respect for Earl's Laws of Baseball. A rookie pitcher's place is in the bullpen. :- )
Good chance Povse is here to stay. Then after he's thrown so well, so long, that his fans are annoyed he's not starting, throw him in there and rake in the bounty. Maybe September, maybe next year. Love it.
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4) Bat571 noted the interesting synergy between Jarrod Dyson being on first base, and the you-better-be-CAREful Zuumball at the plate. Will be watching that the rest of the year.
By the way Fangraphs has two role players, Gamel and Dyson, leading the M's in WAR at 1.9 each, in playing time that amounts to maybe 40% of a season. It's hilarious; I'm scrolling through the 3-4-5-6 hitters on video, in order to get to the fun at-bats.
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BABVA,
Dr D
That's a matter of expectation vs. achievement. We expect Cruz to homer every time he goes to hit. When he Ks ugly we say "ugh...that bum". We expect a guy like Gamel to cool off aaaaanny day now...right?...RIGHT???...every time he has a two-hit day, we feel like we stole a cookie from the jar. That's why those at bats are more fun. :)
...no eight-game losing streaks occurred around the Jays series. :) Can we please...pretty pretty please...get past .500 this week?
..no eight-game losing streaks occurred around the Jays series. :) Can we please...pretty pretty please...get past .500 this week?
and stay there!
Congrats @AndrewG_23 on being called up to the Mariners!
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Interesting set of moves to make it happen:
Unexpected move: #Mariners Select RHP Andrew Moore from AAA Tacoma; RHP Christian Bergman optioned to AAA; Tyler Cloyd DFA'd.
The rotation of our (current) dreams is one step closer to a reality.
Next to fall... how can it NOT be HWMNBN? Felix is back this week, and Kuma next. Gaviglio and Gallardo out; it CAN'T be Miranda.
It was really in defense of holding on to valuable talent. Gaviglio will keep in the minors. Heck, so would Miranda in a pinch. I don't want Kuma gone; I just see JeDi jumping on the trade bandwagon with all the need for quality pitching out there, considering what we'd have left. But man, if he prefers to keep Kuma in Seattle... I won't complain one bit.
But with Moore suddenly in the picture, hard questions do need to be asked.
crowd leans forward in its seat for the HWMBN announcement?!
M's seem to think pretty highly of Moore and his 'preternatural feel for pitching." Goes without saying that Moyer has a seat at their table.
Having Moore in there with Povse the #6, and Gaviglio to be replaced by Smyly/Kuma, now we're talkin. Interesting rotation probs tho if Moore entrenches and Smyly gets back.
To recovering the missing power in the lead off role, such is the way of small samples, but agreed that visual inspection doesn't show any big differences from earlier in the season. I'm not sure when it will happen, but any day now, Gamel will pop onto the leaderboards for highest average in MLB, he's just ahead of one Jean Segura on the team, who he's also passed in total PA, and who has an eerily similar batting line and sky high BABiP.
Goodbye Christian Bergman and Tyler Cloyd
Hopefully just not in 2017.
Man, I go away on a fishng trip for three days and I miss three big wins, a Gamel tater, Povse gets the call and NOW my man Moore is a Mariner!!!
Christmas comes early!!!
As to Gamel: I missed the game, so I didn't see the actual homer, but it sure looked (from highlights) that he was tying to launch one. Looks like it was a 2-2 count and he was looking for that pitch.
If so, he's adjusted again. Early in the season, at 2 strikes, he saw a steady diet of fastball up and out of the zone. He doesn't bite at that pitch now. And yesterday it looked like he was trying to drive one.
As pointed out, he can't BABIP a gazillion forever, but he's a player, without a doubt, and he's growing....all the better.
Moore last pitched on the 15th, I think. Nearly 2 weeks ago, I suggested that he might get his 1st start, bumping Gallardo, on the 22nd. That's tomorrow. What do you guys think? The 23rd is Felix's return. He's not getting that one.
I can't imagine we throw both Moore and Povse out of the pen, to begin with. Moore could go on the 24th, but that would bump Gviglio, who just had another nice outing. So I'm betting on tomorrow! Which would mean he officially lapped Gallardo in June. Right on schedule.
Kuma with a dismal Tacoma outing yesterday, but Segura was in the lineup.
I'll miss Tyler Smith (the M's currently have three Beavers on the squad), but there is no room for him here, right now.
And shortly we will say, "What's the motter with Motter?" When he goes back to Super Ute, anyway.
Have a happy Zeus Day!
Go team.
The organization hasn’t specified Moore’s role yet, but sources have said he’s not going to pitch out of the bullpen. He’s expected to be slotted into the starting rotation and possibly start on Thursday, meaning there could be more moves or re-slotting of the projected starts of other players.
If so, quite the called shot Moe, tomorrow being the 22nd. So if the rotation had K-Pax, Felix, Miranda, Iwakuma and Moore all throwing well, what would they do when Smyly got back?
I mean it's either that or demote Miranda. Or re-demote Moore. (Which, if you're going to do that, why start his clock now?!)
Paxton's not moving. Felix isn't moving. Smyly's not moving, at least not so quickly. I suppose you could move Moore (increased value if he proves he can hack it in the majors), or Miranda. I have my doubts, though. Neither has any reason to go back down to the minors, though - waste of talent.
Either you move Kuma, preserving the controlled talent, or JeDi wants to magnify the perceived value of Moore, or Miranda's trade bait. Or someone legitimately loses their job before Smyly returns, but you can't count on that. What seems more likely to you guys?
If I *have* to pick one, I'm grudgingly supposing a trade of Miranda/Moore. I just can't see Kuma being shipped out if he's performing well. My final answer is Moore showcase... but I don't like it.
One DFA announcement away from making my day. Can't remember disliking a Mariner pitcher more since Silva. I was the crazy guy in spring training saying I didn't care about the $ and didn't even want the guy to crack the rotation.
Considering all the question marks this rotation will still have with everyone healthy, having an extra arm you want in there isn't something any Mariner fan should stress about.
Please be gone Gallardo.
Thanks!
To tell you the truth, I won't be surprised if we just make a move with Gallardo soon, depending on where we think Kuma is. He had 2 AAA innings yesterday, 4 hits, 2 BB's. He's getting a couple of more AAA starts, anyway.
And, if you think about it, Kuma may well come back as a 1.3WHIP, 9 hits, 2 BB, 6.5 K per 9 innings pitcher, just like he was last year.
Gaviglio is a 1.2, 8, 3 and 6 guy this year. I believe in seniority, to a degree. But I will point out that the M's have won the last 5 times Gaviglio has taken the hill, and 6 of his 7 starts on the year. In those 7 starts, he's given up 0, 1, 1, 1 and 2 ER's. OK, he gave up 4 and 5 in the other two, both M's wins.
And you send him off to Tacoma?
In Bulldog Maddux's first 5 starts, he gave up 3, 2, 4, 6 & 3 ER's. OK, he was a 20 year old.
But as a 21 year old, his first 5 starts saw him give up 6, 4, 5, 3 and 2.
Finally in his 11th MLB start he gave up a single earned run.
Man, Gaviglio has to be WAY better than Maddux, don't you think? :)
Kuma better be the Kuma of old (pre '16), PDQ, or I'm much more interested in Sammy G. taking the mound on any particular night.
Andrew Moore, I'm way out on your limb. Kid, you had me last year!! Deliver, tomorrow night, pretty please!
You got it, Doc. If he had two more homers, Seager would basically be dead on trajectory for the type of season he had in '12 (108) and '13 (118). He's more than fine.
Nothing to look at here.
I've seen a lot of Verlander starts...I don't think I've ever seen him throw this well.