M's 7, Rays 1
it's Dr. D's party, and ... well, hold that thought

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GRIK (tic of the baseball clock):  Erasmo Ramirez comes through with a performance the Rays call "sharp."  The M's ride his 90 pitches into the 7th inning and avoid using their short men.

GROK:  From what I saw of the game, Ramirez threw the ball about average for him.  :: shrug ::  Which is fine.  He's an average starter.  Which, is 237 a lot?  I dunno, are we talking about miles to walk, or seconds left to live?  A lot depends on what you are comparing to.  As #5 starters go, I'm delighted with Erasmo.

About 200 years ago, Voros McCracken pointed out that it was mostly luck, where a batted ball went.  In the 200 years since, I've never heard anybody talk about the luck involved in bisecting a pitched baseball with a bat.

A pitcher gets beat and we figure he's never gonna win again.  A pitcher wins and we figure he's somethin' special.  For me, Erasmo is what he is, and maybe got a little better than he deserved Friday.  Which is O. Kay. By. Me.

Hey, it's my post and I'll write what opinions I like :- )

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GRIK:  Nelson Cruz' 482-footer is the longest ever at Tropicana.  Ryan Divish' Tweet relays that the Mariners players generally considered that estimate an outrage.  Watching the kinetics involved, SSI finds it hard to believe any ball anywhere was ever hit farther.

Still and all, 482 feet is getting dangerously close to my 3-iron distance, at my age.  That's with a golf ball.  Imagine a guy standing there on hardpan dirt, in cleats, a wooden stick and a leather* 5-ounce baseball.

GROK:  Boomstick is supposedly feeling better the last month, over which he's slugged .650 - while striking out a lot more.  It's not a 1-to-1 correlation between fewer strikeouts and playing better; sometimes guys are just poking at the ball, feeling for it.  Sometimes we forget to watch for "hitters' reactions" from the offensive side -- hey, that guy is lettin' the bat fly.

Cruz, Cano, a few other guys, it's why I'd be interested to watch this team in crunch game.  Big believer in Stars & Scrubs.

....

Servais takes a shot in the dark:  "Somebody's offense is going to get hot."  Sounds like a feasible casting of the tea leaves.  Also sounds like a favorable one, for the Seattle Mariners, if foresighted.

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GRIK:  Angels get their whiskered heads caught in a mousetrap, suffering the wrong side of a Walkoff Grand Slam in Baltimore.  In other words, at the start of the vid the Angels are up two runs and counting their WC standings; five or ten seconds later they're wishing they were hockey players in Yakutsk.  Angels up 0.5 games on the Royals and M's.

GROK:  Dutton averaged three computer sims, which take strength of schedule, and forged them to --- > 87 wins Yankees, 82 for LAA and Royals, 81 for M's, Twins, and Rangers.  A lot of writers look at that and assume a bunch of bad teams, apparently unimpressed by 482-foot homers.  Dr. D looks at a packed race like that and sees excitement.  Like he said, it's his post, and he'll offer what opinions he wants.

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YOUR TURN NOW

Have to switch cable providers.  Might not be back online until Tuesday or something.  How's about somebody put up a daily stub for chat?  :: winning smile ::

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Enjoy,

Dr D

Blog: 

Comments

1

I have written before about no slugger in history having their 3 best seasons at ages 34-36, perhaps Big Papi being an exception.  But here Cruz is doing it!  I don't know what to say, other than he is a phenomenal athlete.  I think his stroke gets more simple and prettier all the time!

That said, can we ship Martin out and get Haniger back here pronto?  Martin is 13/57 since coming back up, but minus his 1st three games he is 8/44.  He sucks you in with a good game and then hacks away again.  He brings a glove, but I am tired of him.

Ditto Espinosa!  He's mostly terrible right now and Motter is mostly slaughtering AAA pitching.  Get him back up, too!!  

It's a bandaid situation with the starters after the Miranda start.  But what else is new?

Weird Vogs update:  in AAA he is hitting .276-.378-.414 vs older pitchers but .378-.471-.690 vs younger arms.  Sort of goes along with his Seattle struggles, doen't it?  

2

Apparently more experienced, crafty pitchers can get Vogs out. Sounds like Ackley syndrome hit earlier in his "career." It's a truism, but in MLB, if you can't adjust, you die.

5
RockiesJeff's picture

Had the privilege of sitting at AAA game here in Colorado next to Vogs parents from FL. Very nice people. I wish him the best.

Need a win today....is Miranda's velocity down a bit? 

 

6

But watching our offense on Saturday against TB's less-than-average pitching,  M's look awesome and deep.  The lineup is clicking unlike at anytime so far this season.  Injuries have been weathered with Maniger's successful return, Nellie's in a longball groove, Alonso looks comfortable and Gamel/Heredia just keep doing what they've been doing: hitting and playing defense.  The rest of the guys are doing well  (Cano, Seager, Valencia, Zunino) or at least as expected. Sudden Jean the hitting machine is fine.  To paraphrase Mel Brooks, pitching? We don't need no stinking pitching. Seriously the 4.1IP and "pray for rain/relief" philosophy fits these guys fine.  It's taken me awhile to believe it, but more games like this (7-6 M's 4th straight win) and it's on, we're in. Also, why stop with 2nd WC and take it outright, at home.  Buhner rules.

7

Max Povse started and threw 4.2 innings of no hit, 1 BB, 7 K ball tonight in Tacoma, yet he got the loss!  Now that is hard to do! 

8

It takes courage and guts to no-hit the opponent (for 26-outs) and lose, plus an inept offense, something M's fans know about.  For some reason all lost no-hitters, or almost no-hitters, remind me of Holman and the M's "worst loss, EVER." Good practice for Povse to have in his back-pocket when he returns. I have a feeling Povse can be very useful in October,  just saying.

10

Appreciated seeing that.

....

Minor note:  James came up with these ratings on his own.  They're brilliant, considering that.  They're primitive, not considering that.  Chess ratings have evolved to include a "zoom" factor that boosts quickly-rising players (like Paxton) so that they don't victimize their opponents.

In a chess rating system, Paxton would be about 25-30 in the majors (12-15 in the AL) and would climb a few spots with each successive lightning storm.  We all know that a healthy Paxton ain't no #45.  He probably ain't even no number 5.

11

James' system does a pretty good job or reflecting "conventional wisdom" of how feared an opponent's starting pitcher is by home team fans, but it is seriously deficient in its response time. It fails to crown the supernovas who immediately are the most unhittable pitchers in the game until they "prove it" for 2+ years. Paxton is obviously an Ace+ and Felix is only maybe/kinda/sorta still a 3.

But for the others, I think it does a decent job of capturing the pecking order as it stands.

For another take, the FiveThirtyEight pitcher ratings list Erasmo as our current #1 starter:

 

Erasmo Ramirez  49.0  +9

Ariel Miranda      47.6  +3

Andrew Albers    44.4  -12

Marco Gonzales  43.2  -18

Yovani Gallardo  42.8  -20

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