Seattle Sports Insider

Zounds! Foiled Again!

Dr. D scrambles to put out the flames

Posted by

9/6/17

Sherm the leader of the Rebel Alliance saith,

I figured if the Mariners play badly, I was right, and gloating ensues. If I'm wrong, everyone gets caught up in the first playoff appearance in franchise history* and forgets completely about me and my blown call, just like everyone forgets about the ump who cost Galarraga that perfect game.

Suddenly Dr. D realizes what he's done! He forced his opponents into a winning combination! This one at least as old as the "Benjamin Franklin Farmer's Almanac": Plan for and expect the worst. When it happens (or doesn't), you'll be in a normal mood (or pleasantly surprised).

In chess when you're in a slump -- not that Dr. D would know -- you see your opponent's easy replies even before he does. You know things aren't working right when your opponent can't miss the winning refutation blindfolded. You play ...b5 and as you hit your clock, you shake your head in disgust and go, "He's just gonna play Qb3 and I'm done." We ask, does anybody dare write the Mariners off, and even as we hit the Publish button we had to grimace.

Well, at least you all made it amusing. If I got to take my move back, I'd ask the reverse, is anybody going to watch the Angels series? That's where Dr. D is at, in case y'were wondering, might as well check that last series.

...

Mojo sez,

The Mariners consistently lose head to head matchup against the good teams. They have lost every series to the Stros and the Yankees this year. They have lost to the Indians. They lost to the Nats. They are even against Boston but that's about it. The Mariners look like monsters when there are Orcs or Braves to slay. They are about as good as the Angels, in that their talents and their holes are very apparent.

An interesting objection. At this b-ref link, under Team Win/Loss Splits, far right Opponents, you can expand a crosstable. The M's are notable:

Winners vs: Rockies, Tigers, Orcs, Rays, Rangers
Losers vs: Astros, Royals, rodent Angels, Jays

If the M's 4-9 record against the Angels were 7-6 they'd be leading the WC2. Reverse it and they'd be in command. This happened to the Reds against the Dodgers one year and I whined, "If it weren't for the games against the Dodgers we'd be four games UP!" He laughed and chided, gently, "I would think those would be the games that mattered the most?" Stuck with me 40 years.

Moe sez,

There are 4 teams between us and LAA. So we have to outperform 5 teams, three of them by 3+ games.

If we beat McCullers tonight (a big if) then we are sitting at 70 and 70. Nothing less than 84 wins gets in, and it is likely 85. Sherm has called it right.

Basically, we're all but done.

If the reproach had come from my enemy then I could bear it; if it were one who hated me then I could hide myself from him. But it is my companion and my familiar friend who places his hand softly on my shoulder and ... shivs my blog under the short rib. Okay, so it's now M's comedy, Seahawks ("led from behind" by Caleb and Sherm), Korners and the latest exciting live-cams from the Cuban chess world.

DaddyO sez ... wait, let's split out the postmortem. ...

SIMON SEZ,

Mark Simon that is. Not the Denizen but the national writer. Tweets that Jarrod Dyson leads the major leagues in outfield runs saved in the ARM category. The equivalent of -7 runs (not bases) deterred with his arm. That's pretty cool for a small guy.

Sign 'im up,

Dr D

Blog:

Dr's Prognosis

Tags:

Scott Servais

Comments

I do, I do, I do, I do.....

....I do believe in this team. I do believe in this team. I do believe in this team. Doc, I do. I want to go wid ya!

But minus 6-8 Paxton/Felix quality starts in the next 22 games (after tonight), I'm not seeing a 16-6 stretch.

So I guess I believe in baseball spooks, too. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4sKzPBu2M8A

And we have a bunch of spooks in our way.

But, and I hate to say this, there is always next year. Hope springs eternal, remember.

Paxton, Felix, Miranda, Leake, Moore, Gonzo, et al......not a bad place to start. Of course, it will be difficult to get life saving peerformance out of a mix and match pen again.

We need the guy at 1B to hit next year, Haniger to slug, and Gamel/Heredia to be 110. Give us that, and a resurgent Cano, and we're in lin Flynn (or Flint, take your pick).

B-Ref chart

A cool B-Ref chart, btw. Very cool.

Basically we've been outclassed by three teams all season: Toronto (go figure), Houston (who hasn't?), and LAA. Even if you take the 1-6 vs. Toronto as bad baseball luck, we're 60-51 vs. everybody not named Astros or Angels. 60 and 51 is decently good, I will remind you.

But you get nowhere in the Western Conference of the NBA if you can't whip the Warriors. Nowhere.

If the Detroit Lions couldn't beat Lombardi's Pack, they were toast. If you can't beat the tough guys you play the most, you aren't going very far.

We haven't been able to.

And just to the left of the cool B-Ref chart there is another telling set of figures. We are 25-13 in 1 run games. james, yers ago, basically said thatover the course of a season, 1 run game W-L totals were largely a bit of luck. We've been extrodinary lucky. We're 25-13 in 1 run games.

BTW, we're 23-18 in blowouts (5+ runs). That's 48-31 if you add them together. Which makes us 21-39 in the other games.

Do keep fighting the good fight, Doc

Hey, we all have that experience, where right after our move we realize it was terrible. Happened to me just this afternoon. When I first saw how many of the denizens (love you guys) had thrown in with the rebel alliance, my first thought was "Oh no! I hope this doesn't keep Doc from giving us the Mariners were still alive!" I'd hate to take any air out of the sails of my favorite ship on the high seas of the blogosphere. Please promise you'll intersperse the Mariners Comedy, Hawks, and Korners with some baseball lifeblood. Just because I don't believe doesn't mean I don't enjoy hearing from those that still do!

I think that ship sailed about four years ago

Where we all enjoyed the Mariners chat a lot more than we enjoyed the Mariners. :- ) Thanks for the pep talk.

... so if we put up a Seahawk post once a week are you and Jonezie going to info-tain us on that end?!

I'll try to hold up my end.

But I'm a neophyte in terms of X's and O's, so I won't be much help there. The Seahawks are a pleasure to follow, much as the Mariners were for me in the early 2000's.

I'm Game

I'll try to keep up my end too. I'd absolutely love to talk football with you guys, especially during the long, slow baseball offseason. Make it so, Cap'n!

At the risk of becoming "Captain Obvious"

It's just math. Does anyone really think the M's can go 16-6? Have they done 16-6 at any point in this season?

Let's look at the schedule. The next 7 games are against the Angels and Rangers. Just for the exercise, say we go 5-2. Then 3 against the Astros in Houston. Let's be optimistic and say 1-2. Three more against the Rangers at home, 2-1. Three against Cleveland who is playing lights out. 1-2. Three against the A's. 3-0. Three against the Angels (in Anaheim) to close the season. 1-2.

So what's that add up to? 13-9. 82-80. Could there be some magic and win a couple more series and have it end up 16-6? Sure. Just as easily could go the other way and end up 9-13. Maybe the pitching matchups favor us, maybe they favor the other guy that night. That's why you play the game.

Since that disastrous first week, the M's have been basically a .500 team, perhaps a game or two above. Since this is not the NHL or NBA, a game or two above .500 doesn't get you into the playoffs.

It wasn't obvious to me

I hadn't realized that the minimum now is 16-6, but knew that it was real high.

Doesn't matter to me that much as a fan going into the Mariners series that they don't look capable. ;- ) It's more a question of "must win a bunch now." A 7-9 NFL team coming into CLink just focuses on trying to do what they gotta do, right?

That math does indeed paint a grim picture.

But that's what Cinderella seasons are all about: overcoming the odds in dramatic fashion.

I won't be holding my breath, but I admit I'm invigorated about the offseason much more so than I was for last year's. The pieces seem to be lining up nicely for the team to make serious steps forward. We've got a heck of a core going forward with Segura signed long-term, Haniger looking like an easy 3 WAR player, Zunino looking like what we'd hoped for during his first call-up, the steady Seager holding down the hot corner, and more young ML-ready pitching than I can remember ever having in this organization at once. Things didn't break well for them this year (losing Smyly was really the crippling blow) but I really like the way the club is positioned going forward.