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IMAGINE SIRI'S VOICE CHIMING OFF YOUR COMPUTER MIC
Brooks baseball has had a beta feature this year, one that translates its F/X pitch numbers into English prose. It's one of the first things Dr. D looks up when trying to remember what the F/X said on a recall like Andrew Moore.
For Felix Hernandez, it suffers some from the "smoothing" that Felix went through, being injured and then coming back, but was still worth a look. Sez Siri / Brooks:
Basic description of 2017 pitches compared to other RHP:
His change dives down out of the zone, is much firmer than usual and has slight cut action. His sinker generates fewer whiffs/swing compared to other pitchers' sinkers and has less armside run than typical. His fourseam fastball has less armside movement than typical, has some natural sinking action and has slightly below average velo. His curve is slightly harder than usual. His slider generates fewer whiffs/swing compared to other pitchers' sliders and has less than expected depth. His cutter (take this with a grain of salt because he's only thrown 14 of them in 2017) is basically never swung at and missed compared to other pitchers' cutters and has some natural sink.
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So right away you have a problem, a "change that is much firmer than usual," normally a pejorative. Felix' dry spitter wasn't the overwhelming pitch it had been in the past, mainly because it lacked touch before and after his several DL stints. But, don't get the wrong impression; Brooks' verbal descriptions are usually very info-taining.
It's a fair complaint that Felix' "slower" fastball generated few swingthroughs. It's also fair to call his curve "harder" than usual, as opposed to praising its depth, because he tended to lose its depth before and after his DL stints also (-0.55 runs value on the year according to Fangraphs; I don't remember that result at all).
The verbiage on the slider is surprising considering that he posted a +5.06 runs value on it.
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TENNIS RANKINGS
BJOL has Felix at #59 in both leagues, a few slots behind James Paxton,* Danny Salazar and Mike Leake and a few slots ahead of Michael Wacha, Noah Syndergaard and Alex Wood.
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PRE-SEASON BASEBALL HQ
Had Felix pegged for a 13-9, 3.56 season with 179 K and a $14 value. Its guide cautioned against paying for name value:
Three years of sinking velocity, DOM, and IP have paired with ---- > rising CLT, HR, ERA, and WHIP to severely curb hopes of return to glory. Modest (?! - jjc) split between FB and changeup has hurt the FB; increased secondary usage could be an answer, but adjust expectations. Name value could inflate price.
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LUCK STATS
Felix allowed 1.77 homers per 9 based on a 22.4% home run rate, where league average was 13.7% homers per fly. His BABIP was .286, his strand rate 76.4%. All told, this left him at a 4.36 ERA in Safeco (4.03 FIP) wrapped around an 8.10 strikeout rate and 2.70 walk rate.
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THE MAINFRAME
Has long expected Felix to go through a career transition to --- > an NPB-style pitcher without a big fastball. In the second half I was dead-on certain we saw him doing that; in the first half we saw him throw 46.5% fastballs, while in the second half he was at 41.7% (with league average being 55.6%).
If Felix maintained position as the #59 starter in the game then he would be by definition a "weak" #2 starter or a strong #3 starter. The prediction here is for Felix to get his legs under him with his new game and have a better season in 2018 than he did in 2017 - even without adjusting for the 22% homer/fly rate.
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We've long compared him to Justin Verlander, and Felix has now put in his two years of light IP mileage (86 IP preceded by 153 IP) so next year I'd be drafting him to throw about 200 innings at an 8.5 K, 3.0 BB and 1.2 homer rate. If you can fan 8 batters in the first place it's going to put you in the top 30, 35 starters on any leaderboard.
Felix was still getting his 8, 8.5 strikeouts even in his DL-washout 2017 and while that isn't King Felix (TM) and isn't somebody you'd probably lay out $25M for, it's somebody you can pencil for 3.0 WAR rather than 0.4.
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Let's! Go To! the Video! Tape!
Here's a good seven innings from Felix back in July, 7 IP 3 H and 9 K.
My two cents,
Dr D
