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Q.  So that's all you need to be a 1-1 ammy draft pick in Dr. D's world?  A swing that is Harper-class?

A.  No, but it helps if you hit .322/.416/.588.  Against JAPANESE PITCHING.  At age 21.  And that's really more like age 19, considering that he has had few AB's of ANY type in the pro's. (Actually at age 19 he aclso slugged .500 in Japan, so I'm framing this argument very weakly.)

Even Griffey got to play class A baseball at age 18, and got 450-500 at bats in the minors.  Ohtani at age 18 was forced into 200 at bats FOR NIPPON?! at age 18 and the next year he slugged .505.  This in what is essentially pitching as difficult as fringe to average National League.  To this day, the only experience he's had has been 1,170 dislocated at bats while he concentrated on pitching.  It's as if LeBron James got 200 AB's and then started slugging .505 against weak NL pitching.

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And that's in Japan.  Nippon pitching is subtle, brainy, tests a hitter from the front to the back of the zone (0 to -15 MPH).  Can Hisashi Iwakuma challenge a hitter's timing, disrupt his ability to hit with power?

Usually a player like Ichiro or Godzilla, in fact all NPB players, bring their AVG and OBP across to the bigs.  It is their SLG that loses 100 points.  But!  Does that happen here?  No it doesn't! So where does that leave us?

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So Shohei Ohtani is a 1-1 draft pick as a hitter.  That's actually understating the situation; Cody Bellinger as of June 1, 2017 wasn't a 1-1 draft pick.  His EYE does not speak against that; Ohtani had a .55 EYE in Japan which is better than what Bryce Harper had early on.

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Q.  So how does Dr. D answer Ohtani's essay question, the one he sent to 30 MLB teams "how do you project my hitting"?

A.  That he's a generational talent, that even if he were flexible about hitting I would ask him to take my regular spot at DH and that he wasn't coming out of that slot, ever.

It's not clear what Ohtani's stats will be in 2018.  Maybe he needs a LITTLE time before he is a batting star.  Or maybe not.  Top end?, I don't for a second rule out an Aaron Judge (.500-and-plenty SLG) or even a Bryce Harper career.

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Deion Sanders, a guy like that wants to jump into MLB for ego.  Easy for us Americans to simply use our paradigm and assume Ohtani wants to bat here out of bloated narcissism.  Instead, we should consider the possibility that Ohtani is shark-cold about this, like Ichiro, and is aware of his own hitting greatness.  He wants to know which MLB teams are also aware of the facts, as we are after Preusser's gifs and Ohtani's batting performances.

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Q.  How does he not wait ONE YEAR and rake $250-300M?

A.  The Curious Case of Sydd Finch.  We lived to see it occur.

:- ) actually we never did figure out whether he will get a 3-year deal or 6-year.  I think 3, but!  Even if it is a 6-year deal:

• Year 1 and 2 - his signing bonus
• Year 3 - Super Two, $6M is it check me on that
• Year 4 - $10M or sois the current arb record I think for 3rd year, check me on that (now that's assuming the ballclub pushes back against him, instead of cooperates and comes in super high!)
• Year 5 - $15M or something
• Year 6 - about $20M is the CURRENT standard IIRC - and Ohtani gets higher

In an alternate world, he might make that money as a pure hitter.

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