This is a short post and since I'm not a veteran and not in a spot where I can post some pics, it will not be fancy.
Like almost everyone else, I watched with great interest the Mariners' pursuit of Ohtani. I made a few comments appreciating the fact that Mariners were "all-in" in him. I am still convinced they were, but over the course of the last few days, after seeing Stanton land exactly where I always expected he would, my thoughts about the Mariners being all-in in general have begun to waiver.
Or at least I can say I have doubts. I would not have expected them to make a run at Stanton, but seeing how the big boys function is a a reminder of what "all-in" really means. If I have any interest left in this game, despite the fact that I hate the system, I have to admit that I have to put aside the obvious contradiction in my interest versus my beliefs about what a fair game ought to be and hope that my team tries to become one of the "haves". I have absolutely zero interest in a team that hopes to get a WC berth a couple of times per decade.
Well...I'll probably know it when I see it. I will certainly know what it is not. If Je-Di goes back to bottom of the roster spaghetti (which is fine) only, then I'll know. If there is no concerted effort o capitalize on the assets you have in Cano, Cruz, Seiger, Paxton, Diaz, Segura, etc., I'll know that they are not. I don't really mind losing the Ohtani 'sweepstakes'. But what I do mind is that we may have lost it because of what has happened here over the past 15 years.
If there is nary a whisper on Darvish or other guys that can well and truly help this team elevate their play, then I'll know. We'll still be playing the small market game.
And....I'll know that the M's were only "all-in" on their next symbol of a great night at the ballpark and a novelty that could carry them through the next several years.
Are they all-in? Or were they only all-in for their one and only target? How will we know?
Nelson Cruz is an asset we need to trade. One and done, but with value to the Boston Red Sox who are trying to match the Yankees‘ nuclear proliferation.
That would be ”all in” for me. Get a younger asset who can help us now and next year.
moe knows what I mean....
Hey Silent,
It looks like your Syracuse team, the Barking Spiders, is rolling again, perhaps on the way to a repeat World Series appearance. Your other team is rolling, too.
My Syracuse team, the Sicilians, surprised me in last year's (Season 45) post-season; we were a WC team that pulled out a World Series win after trailing 3-1. We're now in the Season 46 NLDS. My ace threw a gem in Game 1, a 1-0 win.
GL to you.
Back to Cruz: He's the most tradeable asset we have, the return could be pretty.
We would be silly to not explore that.
...tried a few times to recruit you when I was a commish. My Syracuse team is headed for a cliff, but it might be a year or more out. Won the WS 3 seasons ago, go knocked out the following year, then returned to the WS but lost G6 and G7 to a pretty good squad. This year's team is not as good - lost my own Stanton, but bought a bunch of Civics to ride the last two years of my $20M pitcher and decent pen. The Montgomery team is my first season. They have the 1st pick in the draft and I have 5 rule 5 guys - not much hitting, not much starting pitching, but a killer bullpen and pretty good defense. It's mostly smoke and mirrors with that team. Even though they're off to a 16-6 start, I'll be shocked if they win 80.
Back to Cruz - yeah they should probably pull the trigger there.
And you're right that right now the Red Sox might be a bit blinded by Stanton.
The only hesitation I really have is in not wanting to have only hopes at both 1b and DH. I'm fine with DH being the hot bat/ matchup spot in general and the overall offense might warrant that use now anyway. Can't keep Cruz forever and he'll likely never be worth the same as right now if the Red Sox are antsy to respond.
The Mariners have been down the road of the .750 OPS DH. Remember Jose Vidro? Remember Carl Everett? Parker Brothers? (long-time readers know who that means)
I'm open to trading Cruz for Bradley, but not if we don't have a plan to replace Cruz fully. I remind you all that the As traded Cespedes in the middle of a great season and it completely torpedoed their entire line-up...a torpedoing from which they still have not recovered. Like Cespedes, Cruz is a magnetic personality, immensely popular in the clubhouse and at the heart and soul of the culture we've tried to build here. You'd better not tell the Mariners that their line-up needs to work without a clean-up hitter and the hope that the 'hot bat' can eek out a .270/.330/.420 slash while our CF hits only slightly better than that.
And you're right. I'm concerned with how long Cruz will be that though. "Better to move on too soon...". I've been worried about who could replace Cruz for a couple years and nobody has stepped up who seemed like they could.
Right now this season is scaring me and it seems collapse of a couple players could cripple the year. I'm agreeing to creativity but going in without Cruz would probably be scarier than fear of his decline.
Open up the wallet is about all that's left otherwise. And Lewis. Or you still need a CF because you're trading Seager and Gordon will instead move to 3b. Doesn't sound more appealing.
He's already trying to let a little air out. From the latest Greg John's piece..
"Our pitching is probably a little deeper than most are giving it credit for being. The addition of a household name is probably not forthcoming. But we do intend to add to our pitching staff, whether it be in the 'pen or the rotation."
Not sure what the plan is, their talking Lynn or Cobb, or some second tier guy. I think this team could survive with strong #3's and some offense, but its tough watching everybody else get 'all the good people'. Gordon makes us better (in my view) so Dipoto IS working our 25-man into SOMEthing better. Unfortunately, I got a sense of desperation right there at the end of the Ohtani sweeptakes with the dumping the minors for money. And it makes me think Ohtani might actually be a cut throat son-of-a-gun because he knows the Mariners, their history, the Ichiro's, and such, but a sign of weakness is a time for saving (of a franchise) or a death blow. He chose to kill his childhood team, not to save them. Obviously, I don't think he's out to hurt anyone, but he saw trader Jerry scrambling around while everyone else just accepted his 'right to choose'.
I am still behind Dipoto. I like that he tried hard to get his guy; he usually does. BUT, the echoes of Angels fans crying about a decimated farm are getting louder.
In a continuing theme, I am so thankful for everyone here. Your opinions and life experience shine bright! I wish you all the best, Merry Holidays and Happy Christmas to all.
Are the M's all in? Well that depends on what "all in" means, and that I think is the rub.
The M's are all in so long as they don't have to get too uncomfortable doing so. This has always been so, and I imagine, will be so for the foreseeable future. They will insist they are doing everything they can "within reason" to ... (insert whatever goal recent history demands). Back in the day when it had not been a decade and a half since the team made the playoffs, and when people were accusing the M's of being content to make the playoffs, Lincoln publicly put himself on the hotseat and insisted he was determined to bring a World Series championship to Seattle. He sat unsuccessfully for a years afterward on what proved to be a seat-warmer rather than a hot seat. Now that the M's have been out of the playoffs since Methuselah was born, everyone knows such a stated aspiration is unreasonably, so the goal is "to get back in the playoffs." So history determines what is said.
But team after team after team is willing and able to build a premier team that competes for a World Series and every so often wins one. Alas, one could say the M's are willing but not able, or they could say they are able or not willing, or they could say neither willing nor able. None of these conclusions breed any confidence in the franchise.
If it is a matter of willingness only, and the ability is and has been there, then the matter of comfort zone comes into play. The M's panicked when the fan base became increasingly restless and angry, so they signed Cano for a $240 million contract. One could say this proves they were (and are) all in. Perhaps, perhaps not. But I would say they want to win a World Series, but they are not determined to do so. If they were they would not have been completely out of the playoffs since Gladiator won Best Picture. If they were determined they would have, if necessary, so exceeded their comfort zone that they would have at least come close to making it happen.
So I don't believe they are sufficiently determined to make a World Series, much less win one. In addition they have gone on such a long hiatus from success that you have to question whether as a franchise they even have the ability to reach their avowed goal. You would think they could have at least lucked into a few playoffs and perhaps a little bit of a postseason run during the last fifteen years. To me this is damning evidence of sheer incompetence.
Do we have a new regime? Should the new regime be saddled with the history of Lincoln/Armstrong? Maybe not their history, but they ARE saddled with their legacy. And as an organization they have never proven particularly adept at drafting and developing anything other than Hall of Fame level talent when it falls into their laps. I mean, they couldn't even REACH a World Series with a roster loaded with Hall of Fame talent.
I suppose I'll do what I end up doing every season, either kindle some kind of hope in the face of a poor offseason or burn with an optimism based on what looks like a good offseason. I also suppose that in the end I will be deflated at some point in the season, whether early or late.
I should add that our son-in-law and daughter, to whom our wagon is hitched because we rent living space in their house, keep talking about moving to San Antonio. We thought it might actually happen in late summer. It didn't, but sometime in the next couple of years it wouldn't surprise me if they pull the trigger. So if we move I face one of two unbelievable ironies. One, I begin rooting for the Houston Astros and they fulfill the hopes which I have cherished for the Mariners. Two, the Mariners somehow transform into a real team, like Pinocchio into a real boy, and AFTER I move and switch the allegiance I have had since 1995 they reach a World Series and perhaps win it.
Or, we stay in Seattle and somehow, against all odds, the M's do in fact have that one lucky season that has escaped them since the franchise was born forty years ago.
Meanwhile, the Winter Meetings are on and hope springs...hope springs...uh...for at least a day or two.
Say it ain't so, Daddy! You'll be a Texican??
Here's what I admire about the Astros and their "all in" philosophy: They were willing to get their young guys to the bigs in a blur, buying into the philosophy that they'll get better faster facing big league pitching. Springer, Altuve, Bregmann and Correa were hurried to Houston. All were good in the minors (and very high draft picks), but they moved up quickly, and with a rolling momentum. Houston stuck to a philosophy. It was all in, because they were all in on their young talent and all in on building a team that had the chops to win for a long time.
We can trade Cruz and still be pretty dang good next year, all things going right....but that same equation exists WITH Cruz.
I absolutely love James Paxton, but if his greater value is in the stuff he can bring in return, stuff that can help us win right now, then we absolutely consider trading him. We are likely a year from that action, but it wouldn't hurt to look at it right now. Paxton topped out at 170 total innings (MiLB and MLB) in '16 and had about 140 last year. Fair enough, let's figure he gets 155 this season. What is the current opportunity cost that goes with Paxton?
We should consider trading him, too. Explore the idea, if nothing else.
There is a new primary owner, and a board that can vote without worrying how the Japanese owner and his bobbleheads Lincoln and Harmstrong interacted with their puppet ZooRedNeck and inept Bavasi's and Gwynn's and Loopers and the other yes interlopers who had an entirely different definition of "all in", which damned them to the infamy of all out.
We have a GM who is not taking more than half hour vacations as he picks up the scraps of Lincoln Logs and churns them for replacemenets around a "core". If his approach does not get measured in "playoffs plus", he will, most likely, be gone.
Stanton and DePoet have no choice but to go all in because they cannot afford to look at more empty seats, or less time on the eleven o'clock news ... for that is how they will be measured before they are toasted or grilled.
They are not trading Cruz, or moving Cano to 1B, or faulting Felix, or hiding Seager.
While serious baseball believers see an emerging Paxton or Haniger, a Segura or a Gordon ... that has not translated to the families than want to go to four games a year, watch when there is no competition from their favorite sitcom on TV, or sign their kid up for e-mails from the team ... those are the people that will determine whether or not they have gone "all in".
The frustration of not signing BabeRuth-san was not because of the one hour video the team put together, or the array of celeb players from the franchise, or the signing of Kuma ... the M's rolled out everything they could without rolling over their own toes.
I find it remarkable that whispers suggest they oversold, or came off as less than genuine.
"all in" wasn't a good enough all in over the competition.
They played the game, but they lost.
So the reality now can only be measured by what the GM does to acquire a TOR arm ... and while their tradeable assets seem to be limited, it will not be from the core.
The farm was foreclosed when DePoet got here, and he will sell it all for the right guy.
Before month's end we will have that arm ... possibly before today is over.
That's the way he works.
Of course no one should pay attention to any of my blind stabs at this point because we weren't allowed in the room where the teams were swinging for the Ohtani pinata.
All In ain't all in until you've lost it and the dumpster has already been removed
It has little to do, in this case, with all the losing that has been accomplished over the past 15 years or so.
One of these years they will quit relying of video of Junior and Edger dancing around home plate.
zoom
Moe, hopefully a move to San Antonio doesn't happen. My wife and I don't want to live in San Antonio, but we had to make some life choices a couple of years ago that would allow my wife to retire this last spring, and that meant accepting a good offer from our son-in-law and daughter. The consequence of that is that we are joined at the hip with them. If they move, we move with them.
I gotta admit, though, that despite not wanting to move to San Antonio, one side benefit would be watching a team that actually pulled off what the Mariners only attempted under Jack Zduriencik, parlay a bunch of draft choices into a strong, young core for the future. Every time I think of it I get nauseous at how that could have been us had we the right people in place.
...that you can, in fact, still watch the Mariners from San Antonio...that nothing about living there requires you to abandon your team in favor of the great evil that is Houston...right?
Yeah. But I eventually switched from the Dodgers to the Mariners when I moved to the Northwest. I figure I'll do the same if and when I move to Texas. I didn't grow up an M's fan, the status was bolted onto me because I moved to the area in the amazing summer of 1995. One final reason. I'm not a glutton for punishment. Anyway, the M's that captured my imagination are long gone.
That said, if by some stretch of probablity DiPoto's addition of Gamel, Heredia, Haniger, Segura, (Healy?) and Gordon to the existing core of Seager, Cano, Cruz and Paxton pays off, the Mariners will have a shot at retaining my loyalties. C'mon, Jerry, turn my expectation on it's head, fire the cooling embers of Mariners excitement, trade the reincarnation of Bombo Rivera for the next Barry Bonds, make it happen, git 'er done.
You will still be one of the cool kids!,
i really admire what the ‘Stros have done.
My admiration of the Astros is the other side of the coin that holds my disgust (in the baseball arena) with the Mariners under Lincoln-Armstrong and Buzzy Bavasi/Jack Zduriencik.
It is, perhaps, a failure of my character. I can intellectually view the Astros as a model way to fix a deeply flawed front office culture and turn perennial lolcows into juggernauts. I can envy the amazing talent they've amassed and the sustainability of their model. I can never...ever...ever...love them.
In fact, all I can really do is hate them with a seething, all-consuming passionate rage when the Mariners play them.
Waived by the Phillies: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/perkica01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-
Hmmmmmmmmmm....
Just another noodle to throw at the wall. Suggests Dipoto is not confident in the Gamel/Heredia platoon covering things in left and wants some other things to try.
For a #5 starter. So I expect to add another couple of OF options to make sure we have enough guys to cobble together a .720 OPS on a corner with "good defense" which will allow Dipoto another arm for the scrapheap. The Ms had better hope for some internal improvement, especially after trading off a top-2 farm arm the last two years and getting no pitching back in return. One of these #5 starters needs to turn into at least a #3 or Dipoto may have an even shorter rein than zduriencik. Jack got to say "all those young guys will pan out if you just wait longer. What's Jerry's sales pitch, another year older and deeper in debt?
I am just not sure what Heredia brings back, unless he's coupled with Diaz or something that really hurts. Gamel has some value, but he's affordable and decent, so we need more players like that, not less...Dipoto is in a pinch for sure.
My guess on Dipoto's next draft plan is as follows: 40 rounds, draft 20 straight pitchers, then 1 catcher, then 19 more pitchers. Scatter some polished college guys with some HS lottery tickets. I know, noone has EVER thought of that! He just needs a large infusion of new tradeable assets...because at this rate it takes about 3-7 prospects per 25-man addition. He may have to start dumping players not for international money, but for higher draft picks!
We'll just have to let the man work and see what the vision is. Hopefully, this week can bring our pitching situation into better focus.
then we're in the same boat. I don't see many non-FA impact arms available out there right now, but guys like Gamel have that DELICIOUS surplus value projection (that guys like Piscotty had a year or two back) and teams (especially those in a rebuild) will usually fall all over themselves to acquire a guy like that in exchange for an about-to-be-paid ~league average player nearing FA.
That said, maybe my outlook's a little too rosy?
At about 7:30 our time, MLBTR reported tha DiPoto had suggested we were unl8kely to make any big positional acquisition, using the WW and Rule 5, instead.
A couple of hours earlier they reported that the M’s were active in the Jay Bruce sweepstakes.
I sense a disconnect somewhere.
...I think that is a dead lead. The last time we had concrete intel on it, they were speaking with his agent...in late November, before the Ohtani thing happened. It's possible we made an offer, since the latest comment is that several teams have made offers that he's mulling over, and, thus far, only four teams have been connected to him (Mariners, Mets, Rangers, Giants, and 'mystery team'...who must have a really aggressive GM and a limitless budget, since they are connected to every free agent and trade rumor these days. :) ). But, I'm guessing we aren't one of those offers and have moved on to other plans, since we now have to spend our excess on starting pitching, not on more offense.
Agree Matt. I think it isn't us, at least as long as Cruz is a Mariner. DiPoto has made so much about running "athletic" (a term I mostly hate) COF's out there, that I just don't see Bruce being our RF next season. If we are in the market for a Jay Bruce, then DiPoto is saying that he's willing to use Bruce in RF for a season, and then likely move him when Cruz leaves a year from now.
Like you, I think we still bid on mid-level FA thrower.
Evidently, Dipoto thinks the team is close on at least one "impact free agent relief pitcher"...
Your guess is as good as mine which one.
Almost 5pm PST on the first day of the Winter Meetings, and not much activity. After the resolution of the two major logjams, Ohtani and Stanton, were finally cleared one might have expected some dominos to fall early in the meetings. Perhaps there was insufficient time for teams to explore the lay of the land prior to the initial day, so the day is taken up with discussions. Who knows. Crickets in Marinerland, with talk from DiPotable that no big moves were in the offing, only a little pitching help either in the rotation or the pen. Could be posturing. In his interview Servais said he was very pleased with his lineup as is, and seems to be pleased with his rotation. There was no clear reference to a need for help except at the backup catcher position, which he implied would wait until spring training to resolve.
Meh, they'll try to contend this year in Dipoto's last season. They won't go all out.
If things fall apart in the 1st half they can start their rebuild, if not, they will likely start next offseason.
Hopefully none of Cano/Seager/Paxton/Diaz fall off or get hurt and remain productive as 2 of those 4 have a lot of money tied to them, and the other two could potentially bring in a haul. Haniger will likely break out in a big way.
My feeling lately is that the M's tried TOO hard to get Ohtani and that is what blew the deal.
The *moment* when Ohtani kicked NY and BOS, the M's needed to pivot to something quieter.
Ohtani should have been a grab and bag, which is essentially what the Angels did.
I don't remember the timeline clearly enough, but the M's traditionally do not do the big show and dance type of thing, especially with the media.
So, in some ways, the Ohtani chase feels overly for optics than substance.
MLB Investigating Leak Of Ohtani Medical Info
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/12/mlb-to-investigate-leak-of-ohtani...
I hope it wasn't the M's that done it. The only motivation I can see for any team to do this is to diminish the fallout of a failure to land him. Frankly, to me that only makes sense for teams in the final circle who had a real shot.
So, if a team leaked it and not some member of his inner circle with an ax to grind or a lucky media person who plied the right people, it would have to be one of the six losers.