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If he is real good, he costs you $14M for one season’s worth of chucking. If he’s real bad, he costs you $10M for that one season, considering he most likely won’t pitch in ’18.
The Cubs can have him for that.
Drew Smyly Signs With The Cubs
I'm surprisingly upset about this...
I'll keep this one brief: the Cubs signed Drew Smyly for $10mil guaranteed ($3mil in 2018, $7mil in 2019) with $7mil in performance incentives.
For a team as starved for SP depth as the M's, and for a team that had an up-close-and-personal view of his Team USA dominance (following the FO's deserved--in my opinion--long-running infatuation with the guy), it seems *nearly* indefensible to me that they didn't match this deal. I'd have to assume that Smyly would have given them *some* sort of discount (a mil or two?) if we'd tried as hard as the Cubs did to sign him, in which case you'd be talking about a ~$9mil lotto ticket for a #3 SP.
Teams take bigger risks than 'Drew Smyly For $10mil' all. The. Time. when they're attempting to compete with the Big Dawgs in the league.
Gah, it's probably just that I wanted the team to do precisely this after I learned of Smyly's season-ending injury. I'm probably just too attached to the *concept* of someone like Smyly, in his situation, rising like a phoenix from the ashes to help drive his former team into contention.
So I'd ask the mainframe: how far off-base am I on this one? Obviously the M's FO zigged while I zagged on this one; how do y'all view the Smyly situation/opportunity?
Comments
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But the pitcher we saw in the WBC was what *every* scout who raved about Smyly in the past saw the potential for him to become. That guy is not some BOR shlub--that guy is a TOR arm who will draw more comps to Cliff Lee than to Jason Vargas.
To my mind, that's worth millions of dollars. Also, the recovery timetable for TJ surgery is, what, 12-15 months? He had his surgery late June/early July. That makes his early return schedule something like July of this upcoming year, and his later schedule October (which would *probably* be too late to be of any help).
And call me an optimist (or a plain, old-fashioned fool ;-) ) but I see him hitting the earlier estimates. He's not a powerhouse physically, he's your typical balance-and-poise lefty whose performance is *more* linked to his grace and coordination than it is to his amped up muscles.
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The pitcher scouts hoped he'd be is the pitcher whose arm exploded. Precisely because, as you say, he's not a powerhouse. He's a balance lefty...those guys tend to get hurt when they try to throw 95 mph.
That pitcher does. not. exist.
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Could take the other side a few different ways, but the one I'll saddle up for now is that Smyly almost certainly knew his arm was about to melt down, so he decided to make as big of a statement on the WBC stage as possible, so as to better market himself to other clubs.
Could also be, if that was the case, that such a decision would have left M's management cold to the idea of a return.
These guys walk around with aches and pains their entire adult lives--pains that would put us mortal men down and begging for heavy duty painkillers. They *know* when something's 'not right,' and the *know* when their golden ticket's about to go POOF because a crucial ligament's about to give out.
For these guys, their body is indeed their temple. Precious few of the veteran players are unaware of their own physiologies to the point that they aren't aware, overtly and consciously, that their <fill in your favorite crucial ligament/muscle here> is about to give out.
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is none other than Yu Darvish, whose fastball velocity spiked up HARD after TJ surgery (something like 2mph over his previously established baseline).
He got a rebuild and immediately dialed it back up to 9, whereas he'd been nursing things at 7-8 for years before surgery.
I don't think it's Set In Stone that Drew Smyly can't be the guy we saw in the WBC. But I do agree with you that those guys do not appear to exist in sufficient quantity (or for sufficient duration?) to warrant a template/archetype from which to base assumptions on large player sets.
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I believe this has a lot to do with Cubs manager (Maddon) and his pitching coach - I believe is the same one Smyly had in Tampa.
But to your question... based on how salaries are going this off season... no doubt I do this deal for Smyly
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how about Pineda? His surgery was July 18, just a couple weeks after Smyly's(?), and he had a superior track record to Smyly.
I do it IN A HEARTBEAT if there's any way to swing the deal. Pineda, to my mind, has a smaller chance to pitch in 2018 than Smyly, but there's a chance that he could be available for the stretch run--and if he's not, then he'd almost certainly be full speed ahead for 2019, when we're REALLY going to need some rotation help.
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Pineda signs with the Twins: 2 years, $10mil guaranteed, basically a copy of Smyly's deal.
I'd never make it as a journalist, I tell ya...too slow on the uptake by far. Gotta stick to ray guns and alien bugs...
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The Mariners have enough injury questionmarks at this point...I'd rather get something more solid.
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Erasmo, Moore, Gonzales, Povse, Miranda, Felix even... plenty of options for #4/5 impact. Need a top 2 starter for sure, pushing Leake to 3rd in the rotation.
I can't be understanding the "1 arm, either rotation or bullpen" quite right. Anyone seriously thinks 1 arm right now is going to make the difference? I think 3 is more like it.
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Until I see otherwise, I believe no non-desparate starter will want to sign with Seattle.
Which leaves trades as the only option...and we have next to nothing left to trade.
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Everyone agrees that this is a great deal for Smly. Even with the chance that he does not pitch in 2018.
Must be pretty good for people to see so much potential in you that they are willing to give you $3mil to not pitch so they can get you to pitch in 2019.....
Anyways dont you think that maybe the M's know something about what's going on with Smly that we don't? That the Cubs Don't?
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I think JeDi should trade Lewis. A few points: The current batch of Mariners outfielders is the best in years. We have Haniger, Gamel, Heredia and Gordon. Who were you hoping Lewis to be? Lewis' college batting profile says Mike Zunino with better eye. However, we haven't seen the crazy power since Lewis' knee injury.
Third, Lewis is 22, and getting kind of old for A ball. If he doesn't crush AA, first try, his blue chip label is going to go up in flames.
Maybe he can be had for a good pitcher. Why not?
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I'm with you here Jonez.. Now it truly feels like Gohara for nothing.
I'm also a sucker for Pineda. Slightly biased towards TJ rebounds as they seem to pan out more often than not. Low/Mid risk, high reward with both players.