Seattle Sports Insider

Dangerous Game We're Playing, Huh.

Well, depends how good your opponents are

Posted by

1/29/18

ZEN KOAN, DEPT.

I dunno what it was, 1990 when chess computers got super good, way better than me anyway. By 1995 the gap was ridiculous. In 1997 came the last big-money, national chess tournament Dr. D played in. Can you guess what is coming next?

Smartphone apps weren't yet that great, as I recall, but laptop apps most certainly were. Second round of the 1997 Philadelphia Open I drew White against this high-school kid ... move 8, I spring a "novelty" on him. A very strong, surprising, unexpected opening move that must be met with several precise moves to save the game, right out of the opening.

The kid sits there with a downcast look on his face for 5 minutes. Finally he gets up and leaves.

A minimum of 45 minutes later, he reappears at the board, sits back down, and unleashes 8 consecutive moves that match what my laptop (later) gave as the solution to the position. We drew the game. I haven't entered such a tournament again. Draw your own conclusions. Mine was that the kid went up to his hotel room (which is where such tournaments are played) and made an ethical choice.

Which was okay, however. There are no morals, right, only values. ;- )

CUT YOUR OWN STOCK MARKET ROUTE TO QUICK RICHES, DR. D STYLE

What does Dr. D think of Jerry Dipoto's preferred management style, of trading your way to baseball championships? Hey, that's how WE roll, too. Justynius used to accuse me of being actually a very poor drafter -- despite using BaseballHQ's draft guides, which rule out incompetency -- and complain about the way I'd spend the whole year trading Taijuan Walker for Mitch Haniger, usually with bottom-3 owners.

:- )

Here's the fatal flaw, though. I'd be happy to try to beat any 11 of YOUSE mooks that way. I'd be much less happy about trying it against F-500 corporations stacked with armies of nerds and farms full of supercomputers rolling at 15 petaflops a second, you feel me?

......

It's hard to imagine what Jerry Dipoto knew about Marco Gonzales that ... well, that THEY didn't know about him. The same goes for Erasmo Ramirez, and Dee Gordon, and ...

In the big, big, bigGEST picture it just seems a fairly unlikely approach, finding good stuff about other teams' players that they themselves didn't see.

BUT WHO KNOWS

The Cards KNOW that Marc-O might get to feeling better, might get his vicious changeup back, and might get to going 15-9 every year. They know very well that's possible; they just don't think it will happen.

From a fan's standpoint, Dr. D thinks it's very well worth watching for. Hey, once every five days! Especially in March.

But hey. Since Dipoto has sworn to us that we will thank him for avoiding Yu Darvish, Jake Arrieta and all players of their ilk (and salary levels), and since Dipoto's got little to show in the farm system beyond Christian Bergman any more, The M's emergence as a powerhouse depends on Dipoto being as good as he thinks he is. At finding players in other teams' systems who are a lot better than those teams realize they are. :: shrug ::

It's possible he is. He's only had a couple spins o' the roulette wheel, and one great spin can get the trade journals talking.

......

Then again, maybe Zunino and Paxton can get it done for us. A LOT of seasons are won that way.

Bah humbug,

Dr D

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Comments

Cosign

Pinning our hopes on DiPoto being smarter than everyone else doesn’t look to me like the smart bet. At the same time, he’s not wed to conventional wisdom groupthink, so that’s good. He makes some pretty good points in our company’s defense, however, as you note.

I think Ketel Marte will outshine Segura going forward. Walker may outshine Haniger as well. At any rate, we are looking up at the Diamondbacks as an organization, and I want to know how and why that happened.

At least DiPoto is smart. Just not sure he’s the boy genius he may think he is. But smarts, confidence and good looks go far, so he’s head of the Mariners.

Pair his arrogance with his galling disinterest

When he says "hey, our rotation is as good as any non-contending rotation in the league" (only a slight paraphrase), that is it for me. He can be cocky and arrogant and even mildly incompetent at acquiring talent and I'll still respect him. But the man doesn't even understand the GOAL. He thinks a meh rotation is good enough. I know we can hit, but c'mon! So can the frickin' Astros and Yankees, Jerry! You can't expect good results if your goal ANYWHERE ON THE DIAMOND is mediocrity.

When he gave that quote, I lost all respect for him. I look forward to his eventual firing.

Context

Now, now. This seems a bit...out of context.

I listened to the whole exchange and it didn't sound like he was saying mediocrity is ok. He acknowledged the superiority of the other rotations at the top of the league, but was suggesting "we're not as barren as people think." He highlighted Paxton as a legit #1, which he is. He basically said, "If Felix returns we're golden, if he doesn't, we need help," which is perfectly reasonable considering his $$, etc. He walked through the rotation, highlighting the upside, as he is known to do, locking in 4 rotation slots in the process, but emphasizing the need to always keep a youngin' or two in the rotation for growth...aka, future ace Ariel Miranda ;)

You can disagree with his approach, but I don't think it's fair to suggest his goal is mediocrity.

I understand the context.

It's still not acceptable to me on any level, logical, philosophical, practical, or otherwise.

Your goal should be to make the unit as strong as the best, not as strong as everyone except the best. That is the bottom line for me.

#Hawt-taeks

I just gotta disagree on principle there Matt. The only way your response is justified is if Jerry is the second coming of LincStrong. But he can't be, right? He's a GM. His stake isn't in a nice night at a taxpayer-funded ballpark watching a mediocre team because he doesn't profit from that. He profits from winning, and you damn well know he's aware of how long it's been since the Mariners made the playoffs, and what will happen to him if he misses his current window. Besides, how could we possibly accuse Jerry of "disinterest" when he appears to be rabidly interested in his job, to the point of setting records for trades and triple-A carousels. Jerry may be talentless, arrogant, and wrong, but he's certainly ain't mailing it in every day.

Don't get me wrong though, I encountered that same quote on MLBTR before coming here and gave it a firm snort of derision. It rubbed me the wrong way too. There is something pretty ugly about saying "five teams make the playoffs every year, and I love our chances to have the #6 rotation this season!" But hey, Pete Carroll also has an infuriating habit of saying "I love Russell's chances of escaping the season with very few life-threatening injuries" as if it's a good thing. In point of fact, allow me to make what I believe is an especially apt analogy: this year's starters are like the Seahawks O-line. We know they'll top out at a B-, if we're lucky. And that's why Jerry has put together a lineup that can realistically shoot for a solid A, A+, and a bullpen he thinks he can finagle into a better-than-passing grade. Point being, there's more than one way to skin a playoff berth. For years the Hawks have punted O-line in exchange for a diamond-tough defense. This year’s Mariners are punting the rotation so they can have a diamond solid lineup. Can an intentionally unbalanced team aspire to a championship? Yeah, if they're a bit lucky and they're able to mitigate their flaws. The Hawks won with some overperforming O-lines, and the Ms will have to win with some overperforming starters and creative bullpen construction. I dunno if it will work, but I won't be impugning Jerry's honor if it doesn't. I think his basic premise is actually fairly sound.

The difference.

I don't mean to imply that Dipoto doesn't care about the team winning...his career depends on him caring. I mean to imply that he is not interested in doing things any way other than the way he feels is dogmatically correct in principle, even if the situation demands it. He thinks free agent contracts are terrible most of the time. He's partially correct in that assertion. But he thinks that so strongly that he won't even consider a mid-tier free agent addition when one is quite evidently needed...even a four-year deal is not his style unless it's a player he loves like Segura. He thinks the minor leagues are for farming for other guy's major leaguers. I can understand that, but he thinks it so much that his valuation for minor leaguers in our own system is badly distorted and he is too willing to give guys away to get the people he wants (the opposite of a guy like Gillick). He thinks his judgment of those borderline minor leaguers is far superior to the average, so he isn't interested in looking for new talent any other way.

I gave him a very long leash, because, at first, his disgorging of minor league talent made sense (the team needed to compete while retooling the big league line-up to get younger and more well-rounded, and our system was full of guys I didn't think were worth developing), while signing free agents seemed a dodgy move because we didn't know what we had. But...once you've built the core...which we now have...it's irresponsible not to use all means at your disposal to complete the picture...almost unethical from the perspective of the players.

Thanks for clarifying

Hmm, okay. That makes much more sense, and I can pretty much cosign everything you just said. Just about the only thing I am dogmatic about is my hatred of dogma. I suppose my point of disagreement now is whether signing a Civic is doable from a payroll standpoint. Some quick, possibly inaccurate digging shows the Ms current 2018 payroll at ~160mm. I have no idea what Darvish will eventually pull down in a contract, but let’s be very conservative and say 15mm a year. Add that to what we've got and we're at 175mm. Last year's opening day roster cost 154mm, 13th in the league (dead middle of the bell curve). 175mm would have been the 7th highest opening day payroll last year. That's not an insignificant leap.

I know Stanton and ownership keep making noise like the Ms have money left, but it might not be a Darvish amount (or if it is, that might preclude any additional ST or midseason acquisitions). This would explain why JeDi went full bore after Ohtani: he knew he needed one more impact player but couldn't afford to pay one on the FA market. Now, this would certainly be an indictment of ownership for pinching pennies when the roster is one impact SP away from guaranteed contention and the need for a playoff berth becomes more desperate by the year. But it's not really an indictment of JeDi or his philosophy, is it? Which is still not to say that he has the right philosophy, just that this may not really be relevant evidence of its flaws.

Am I missing something?

Edit to add: I realize you never explicitly said "sign Yu", but I'm running on the assumption that anything less than a TOR isn't really very helpful for this team. We have a million options for the 5 slot, and the other 4 look solid. Not playoff worthy, but good enough that it would take a pretty talented pitcher to really change the complexion of the group. Or may I'm wrong, and another Mike Leake would make a world of difference. Still, are there even any Leakes available for a reasonable price in the current market?

I was gunning for Cobb or Lynn, actually.

Or maybe Arrieta if his price was not insane for his ability. But your price figure is accurate anyway. Darvish will get 25 mil per and Cobb/Lynn closer to 12-15 mil per. I think a middle rotation starter helps a great deal just because it takes away the uncertainty around SP5 and gives us another arm we expect can throw a bunch of quality innings.

I'd love to have an ace, but I don't think it's likely.

I would say that the Mariners could go to 175 mil if they chose without hurting the profitability of the franchise...but...whether they're willing to do that is another question. If they aren't, it does cast some of Dipoto's choices in a different light.

Oof, that's a lotta yen

Okay, so I was being incredibly conservative with my estimate of Darvish's cost. 25mm seems pretty steep to me, kinda like you're paying for his 6WAR 2013, but I suppose he's only 31 so he may still have CY upside. Arrieta is definitely going to get paid too much for that ridiculous 14WAR 2014-2015, which is pretty sketchy coming off a 2 win '17.

Well, good to know that we agree in principle. I'm sure the Mariners, and every other MLB team, could stand to add 15mm to next year's squad and maintain profitability. Doesn't mean they will though. This was unconscionable back when they had a bottom third payroll, but at least they've risen to the middle of the pack. Anyway, I guess I'm just more inclined to assume that our GM is a rational man limited by a budget than an idiot limited by his own hubris. Time will tell about the latter.

That exactly

is what I'm still hoping for. If years 3+are a problem, don't give them a no trade clause? Wait, 2018 already seems different. Do we no longer have Jerry the trade Fairy? I think he could move those latter years if need be. They're not an excuse worth mentioning. Nobody has picked any of them up still. It's about to be February before that changes.

That's not what Dipoto is saying though. He's saying the pitching is good enough and he doesn't want to lock out the youth. That's what injuries that happen (almost; dang 2003 M's) every year to every team are for. Giving the youth a chance. It happens organically. If not, you can always trade the (lowest) offending youth blocker. That's what trade fairies do.

Don't see it.

I'm not trying to pick a fight, but this doesn't make sense to me. I don't want this to come across as picking apart your comment, but I do want to address a few points one at a time for clarity.

First, you say he's dogmatic in principle about doing things a certain way. I just don't see it. He's as flexible a GM as I've seen. His propensity to trade everything but the kitchen sink speaks to that a bit. Recent example: He trades for a guy who refuses to walk. That's not Jerry's dogma, is it? The Martin hire is also indicative of "let's approach things differently." He started a podcast! (I jest)

He doesn't like 4-year deals, but then you cite one. You really believe he has refused to consider the top/mid-tier SP market?

"He thinks the minor leagues are for farming other guy's major leaguers." Yes, he has gutted an already weak farm system in an attempt to solidify the 25-man roster. I think we agree he's succeeded in large part. There's work to do, but the club's emphasis on player develop couldn't be more obvious. If there's one thing that's true of a guy who hates long-term free agent contracts, it's that he knows the value and importance of player development.

"He's too willing to give guys away to get the people he wants." How is this a criticism? Getting guys you want is sort of the point. (Obviously, we can argue +/- of the trades...we all see you, Chris Taylor...but that's a different matter.)

You suggest he thinks his judgment of minor leaguers is far superior to the average. He has emphatically stated this isn't true. He says 30 teams have smart people in them. He recognizes that the evaluation gap between clubs is no longer significant.

You can make a strong case that he should pick up Cobb, etc. I think he should look at adding one of those guys, but I also can see his rationale. What doesn't stand up to examination is your reasoning as to why he doesn't. He might ultimately fail, but if he does, it's not likely for the reasons stated. Call me a sucker, but I guess I'm still #TeamJeDi for another season or two.

Quick. Someone make another post so I can move on with my life! ;)

Oh BTW, re: chess...I completely agree.

I think, if you're playing a human, you should have to be entirely human. Going up and looking up how to win at chess is cowardly and pathetic. And that's what chess is like these days.

I feel like I've accidentally clicked the wrong link. I 've come for my morning dose of hope and I'm instead getting a bit of gloom and disparagement. It is the offseason no less with Spring coming and even the bulbs are brave enough to start raising their shoots in anticipation of a season green with opportunity. It is a season of hope.

Years back I wrote a comment here entitled "Jack Z is a Liar". And, boy, everyone jumped on me like I had impugned the honor and purity of 'that lady' (except you Jeff). But that wasn't how I meant it. I EXPECT our GM to be a liar and want him to be a better liar than the GM on the other side of the table. But most of all I want him to be carefull about who lies to and who he treats with a relationship where trust is sacrosanct. My gripe with Jack Z. in that post from long ago was that I perceived him as to having lied to a young prospect. As far as I can tell, Jerry has been straight and fair with his minor league talent. He can lie as much as he wants to me and the rest of the Mariners fans as far as I'm concerned. He is just trying to sell me a ticket not a Tesla. I will try not hating him for being so darn slick and handsome, and just hope that he knows what he is doing.

So what is his possible strategy to winning beyond arrogance and delusion? He is not going to tear down and rebuild which he may now view as an overwrought competition. Does he really think he can out-trade other teams? No supercomputer, no huge highly paid think tank behind him, and he ain't no Billie Beane, a mind ahead of its time.

But, let me ask you this folks, as you know baseball and me not so much, how does this sound as a strategy:

Keep a longterm perspective, know your fundamentals, recognize changes to the environment, look for value, and be ready to seize opportunities. And if you keep yourself in the mix and team health and momentum go your way, magic can happen at the end of a season.

This strategy can work pretty well for a guy in the stock market, would it be acceptable to have a GM with the same simple philosophy?

It's an interesting thought:

"I see something in your playes that you don't."

That seems borderline arrogant. But is that what's really happening? Everyone's got statistics and whiz kid minds. I think something simpler might be at work--an old fashioned idea. For example, in the fan bases of Milwaukee and Cleveland, there's now a push to have the Indians and Brewers swap Domingo Santana for Danny Salazar. Not because their current teams don't understand player value...but because the the Indians have 'extra' pitching, and the Brewers have 'extra' outfielders. (Is Michael Brantley EVER healthy?)

This seems to be JD's pitch, as well. The D-Backs had both 'extra' outfielders and infielders...and so Taijuan became a logical two-for-one. Then he figured he had (or could acquire) enough offense, so Tank was an expendable price for Gonzales. (Of course, we shall see how that one works out).

The fly in the ointment, of course, is that now virrtually everyone wants pitching. So how do you get it? I think Leake and Erasmo are the JD kind of answers. But the right ones?

A different perspective

Why are we so excited about paying over 30 age pitchers who are on their decline 25 Million for 7-8m years? To me that seems a huge deal breaker. If they would accept 2-3 year contracts, I think they would all be signed by now. I doubt if we are going to see many more contracts over 150 Million unless for an elite player (i.e. Harper).

Second question: I don't see their original terams making huge efforts to sign these free agents at the dollars/years the free agents want either (Cubs/Dodgers/Rangers). Have they already made the value determination of "Not Worth It?

Third Point: I remember how happy everyone was when we signed Felix and Cano to their current contracts. That happiness sure seems long gone now as their long-term contracts appear to be heavy anchors around our (budget) necks. Those long term contracts definitely don't look so good now.

Fourth Point: Jerry apparently feels that he has two possible Breakout pitchers (Marco and Moore) and even a third in Miranda. I am old enough and remember very well Kansas City going to the 1984 Playoffs and 1985 World Series with three (3!) 1st/2nd year pitchers (Saberhagen/Gubicza/Jackson). Yes, lightning struck and KC was fortunate. Who knows for us? Seattle seems to have very little experience moving rookies into lineups and being patient with them as they go through their growing/adjusting pains. To me this is very obviously a Scout call, and NOT a SABR call.

I actually support Jerry's decision at this time. The only option I would consider would be if we could get one really good pitcher on a one or even two year contract.

Go ahead and Flame me.

I largely agree

point #5 would be Mookie Betts' Arbitration win at $10.5 Million in his first eligible year. Betts is a legitimate 5 tool guy. Haniger doesn't have the speed and likely won't defend as well either due to that. 3 years from now Haniger should be making serious money anyway. Zunino and Paxton as well as a few arms are even due sooner. 10.5 first year, that's just...Lock them up early and they're no longer so cheap but looking at that they're not going to be anyway if they're producing.

Hindsight 20-20

20-20 sight is not perfect it is merely stating that you see the images at 20' that the average person can also see at 20 feet. 20/ 100 would mean you have to be 20 feet away to distinguish what the average person can see from 100 feet.

Hindsight, We never drive down Smiley lane.

Gohara comes up and appears in some games down that stretch and is ready for a true shot out of ST. No LeaKe (11MM)acquisition. No Erasmo (5MM)trade.

Going to 2018

Paxton, Felix, Gohara, ( Darvish 22MM) f Miranda, Moore, Marco G,

I like it better than what we have now.

I would have liked a healthy Smyly better than what we have now but,,,.

I am combining my recent reading about the last ranked farm system and to a point agree with JD.

He traded away 2 top 100's and about 10 other really high end types the past few seasons. ( Alex Jackson, Brayan Hernandez, Neidert, Thyago V, Pagan, Burrows, Chris Taylor, Zack Littell, De Los Santos, I am sure I am missing a few. Thge point is the system would be ranked somewhere mid pack with out dealing off for filling out the roster. The injuries to last years White and Casrlson and our tip INT player and Lewis plays to scuttle but the current crop further. Thisgs can change quick.

And I would not be opposed to drafting an elit arm at or near the top always best player available. I would have rather had Strasburg than the safe pick in Ackley and of course 20/20 hindsight eh.

SabrMatt, I have not visited for a couple of days...

..and Just stopped in to read your headline, which made me start dreaming. I'd we can get Th Cobb OR Fred Lynn on the FA market- even at 2018 prices...I'm "all in"!