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Q. Mike Leake 7 IP, 2 ER against a 100-win team. In the clutch, where we take the series. Not too shabby, eh?
A. Malcontent has the following theory about Leake:
So on that article I never wrote, I was going to say that I think Leake's success with Seattle was largely due to an adjustment he made against LHB.
Specifically, he began throwing his sinkers, cutters, and curves in the zone more often, and higher. The sinker, cutter, slider, and curve can all look similar coming out of the hand, and Leake, who is already a top 20 pitch tunnel guy, usually has an obvious release on the curve (+2" over all other pitches on average).
But when he throws his cutter and sinker higher, his release point rises and comes slightly closer. The result (I theorize) is a release point, grip, and pitch tunnel that looks much more similar across 4 different pitches (Sinker, Cutter, Slider, Curve) that results in increased whiffs against sinkers that break away and cutters that don't, and greater hesitation against curve balls.
In general, I think Seattle is getting his sinker up more to make it less predictable as well.
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That sounds quite plausible to me. Batters aren't seeing his pitches too well, that is for sure, and this would be explained by Mal's theory. And as a completely separate issue, his COMMAND is superb.
I was particularly taken by a pitch against Encarnacion, man on 2B one out, 1-1 count if I recall ... slider low-away into just the right spot. Encarnacion took that big swing and... topped it to Kyle Seager.
....
From the moment Lou Piniella left, until the day Jerry Dipoto arrived, the Seattle Mariners organization has lived and breathed the super-oversimplified dogma that every pitch has to be down. Jerry Dipoto, an ex-pitcher as opposed to an ex-lawyer, realizes that it is easier to hit your spots LOW-and-HIGH than it is to paint IN-and OUT. The SSI Mainframe has always been an unapologetic fan of CHANGING THE EYE LEVEL.
Both Leake and Gonzales go high-and-low. It gives you a nice fuzzy that maybe the org is turning the ocean liner around at times, heading into better waters.
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Leake's 7 IP 2 ER ... what did they used to call that for Felix? An Ultra QS? And 8 IP 1 ER was the Mega QS? Slap me silly, imagine the ticker tape parade they'd have given Felix if he had pitched as well as Leake just did. It was bad enough after his 5+ IP on Opening Day.
Just for the record, Leake has 39.0 IP in Seattle with a 31:5 control ratio, 2 homers (that's an 0.4 homer per game rate cf. the 1.1 average), and a 2.54 ERA. Even more incredibly, his FIP with Seattle is 2.75. For six games he's been a Cy candidate.
Dr. D expects him to smooth out as a 2-3 starter in the AL, exploiting the novelty factor -- and perhaps an improved tunnel approch -- for a 110-115 ERA+. For a year and a half. This is asking a lot, seeing that he's proved himself a 100 pitcher for many, many years. But there's reason to believe that he's got a good stretch in front of him.
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Q. Eddie Diaz was sugar the last game, huh?
A. As Krueger pointed out -- if Diaz comes in and fires Strike One, 100 mph, then -------- > the other ballclub BUYS IN fearfully, and then every slider is a garbage swing. Because the cowardly rodent opponents start their bats before they see what the pitch is.
Which of course is what happened to Paxton -- he was wild, and went 2-0 on EVERYBODY, and on hitters' counts the Indians simply started their bats super early, like in a batting cage. They squared up three balls for hard hits, one of which was a pulled fly ball, and Pax suffered a loss. Gotta throw strike one, dude.
But back to Sugar ... when he's Sugar he's an overmatch for anybody. When he's Eddie he'll pitch himself into trouble and, sometimes, back out of trouble.
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Q. How does the Wolf Pack grade out?
A. B.
Like G-Money sez, we can't count our chickens yet, but ... the RP's were key to an unlikely series win against Cleveland.
DIAZ = A as discussed above.
NICASIO = D. His velo is down from 95.7 MPH to 91.8 MPH and something will have to be done there, if he doesn't get it back up quickly.
LAWRENCE = A. His slider was the scourge of the Indians for 3 innings; that's the best parachute offspeed pitch I remember since Paul Abbott. Very intrigued to see more here. For one outing he was Trevor Hoffman.
SCRABBLE = A. His slider had its bite back and he had command. 1 perfect inning with a K and he looked better.
VINCENT = D. Bad outing, bad location, 89 MPH up and over. But he's an enigma anyway.
ALTAVILLA = B+. Showed only a bit of nerves. His velocity was also down a bit in early April, from 96.7 mph to 94.3, but in this case we'd both probably bet that's a matter of building arm strength. Deliciously, he has thrown 54% sliders and that's a big problem for MLB hitters who continue to insist that the fastball is "the coin of the realm." You could have an example of Japanese-style "pitching backwards" coming from a guy with MLB stuff, 94-98 mph.
Pazos didn't pitch. And isn't there an 8th reliever? .... :: taps chin :: Oh! LeBlanc. No wonder we forgot ... the above 6 guys all have about 1 inning (except Lawrence) and 2 guys didn't pitch. Explain to me again why 8 RP's rather than 7 RP's and a Cheney Carousel?
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Q. Leaving us where?
A. Assuming that Marco Gonzales has the numbers we're thinking of .... the lefties and the closer look like done deals. The setup men will shake out, probably to Vincent backed by Altavilla; it's a shame to pay $8M a year for Nicasio and then see his stuff fritz out on you. But! You need only one RHP behind Diaz and you have several draws at the deck.
If you get 4 plus SP's then the ROTATION will carry the BULLPEN through any travails.
Remarkable series win against a 102-win ballclub and it's Marc-O next up.
See you at the ballpark, er, the HDTV,
Dr D
