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In this Times article, Mitch Haniger explains something about slumps that I'd never thought much about. He reveals his swing key as this: if he gets his load (the raising of the hammer before it falls, the "cocking" of the weight trigger before it is pulled) timed right, he'll get the right feel at the plate. If he has precisely the right backwards windup, he'll be set for timing fastballs vs. offspeed stuff. Ryan Divish does a tremendous job in this particular article.
And by the time you're done reading you'll have two big takeaways:
(1) Haniger sounds like a surgeon when it comes to busting his own slumps, so we can expect his slumps to last no more than a week or two :- ) ... and ...
(2) The sabes who deny that there's such a thing as slumps and hot streaks, which is 95% of them, are grossly mistaken.
(They use the argument that hitters' streaks do not exceed computer-generated streaks, but they overlook that: simply because streaks in A do not exceed randomly-generated B's, does not prove that A's similar streaks have no cause. Randomly-generated numbers have very long streaks in them, much longer than humans expect; human streaks might be caused, but cause "small" streaks.)
Anyway: for once Dr. D can't quite think of an Aikido philosophy that parallels this pre-load timing idea, because in kickboxing there's no time for anything resembling a "load." But of course Haniger's "swing key" makes wonderful sense, because he simply climbed back farther on the TIME rope to find his solution.
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Veering off onto another subject, Dr. D sez that Haniger has such a great HIT tool because --- > it is his core instinct to take what the pitcher gives him, to go up there expecting a pitcher's pitch that he has to line back up the middle. It's when a mistake shows up that you can see his eyes light up, see him Lean out over the plate, and deliberately pull the ball in the air. But there is zero greed in Haniger's game, no excessive desire for easy success. It's beautiful to watch.
This is an analog to the way Bobby Fischer played chess, and the way Mozart wrote music -- simple, clear, and forwardgoing with no pretense. Fischer's chess was the most beautiful in history because there wasn't a drop of Greed in it: he pressed and pressed the position for whatever was actually in it, but if his opponent played very well then a draw was the result. However, the moment a player erred and deserved to lose, Fischer feasted on their carcasses calmly, like a lion does as he looks around the tundra while chewing a gazelle. Haniger also has the POUNCE reflex as his batted balls chew on the left field bullpen wall.
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Was it the 3rd game? where an Indian hit a gapper, nice and clean though a little short. Haniger came flying in on his turbo hoverboard, very smooth, and rifled a throw that turned a double into a single. When I think of .300 hitters with 25 homers and smooth excellent outfield defense, I always think of the young Fred Lynn. Or maybe Joe Morgan, or Roberto Clemente.
Dr. D has no words for how much he loves this type of historical player, because it's almost as if the 25 homers (rather than 35) underline the fact that the player is a technician, contributing in every phase of the game bigly, but without the greed we talk about. I've always swooned at the .300 / 25 / 90 / GG archetype. :: he stops short, smiling :: Hey, that's what Robinson Cano is, huh.
Clemente. He was a 135 OPS+ guy. What do you think of him as the player Haniger might be for a few years?
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Matt slid the projection from "Babe Ruth" to Sydd Finch. Somehow I can't see any Mike Trout in him at all, though I love the fact that Matt can. He's a late bloomer for somebody who aspires to be a major star, but as we know the Jose Bautistas of the world don't care about age-arcs.
BaseballHQ gives his Power Index as 125, which equates to twenty-ish, twenty-something homers. HQ's number can underestimate the rare hitter who is good at choosing when to pull the ball in the air, but Dr. D has a little trouble seeing him go yard 35 times per season. He is delighted by those who can.
Game after game, we all wonder about the right comp for Mitch Haniger and it's a pleasant chore, isn't it? Whoever his comp, we can all agree that we'd like 4 WAR from Mitch Haniger, maybe 5 WAR if everything breaks right. Um, so far this season, he's got +0.5.
Be Afraid,
Dr D
My actual projection isn't Babe Ruth...or Stydd Finch. :)
Though I think I see a bit more pop than you do. His PX is misleading for two reasons. 1) It was 140+ in August and September, after he recovered from injury and 2) he doesn't always swing for power, as you suggest (good call on that).
I think he's a .290-.310 hitter with 30 homers, 40 doubles, and good baserunning/defense (and a great batting eye).
I'll take five more of those...
That his PX could improve, even explode, from 2017 in view of his severe oblique last year. +1
.300 with 30 homers and 40 doubles, what's the SLG on that? .575? This seems to be the SSI consensus on him and he would make an awful lot of $dinero that way. Or not; sometimes I almost feel sorry for late bloomers who don't get FA until age 32-33 or so.
Yes, of course we know you're being TIC about the Babe Ruth comps. :- )
Even if we look at the lower range of our high expectations, perhaps we could comp Haniger as Dewey Evans (leaving baserunning aside). And we go up from there.
An underrated star from the 70's and 80's which were the golden days for both of us, amigo.
I've seen Evans brought up as a candidate for most underrated player *ever.* The very definition of classy play.
. . . Clemente might have been better than Sydd Finch, so maybe that's a bit of a reach. I'm with Matt, though, on seeing more power.
Like others, I see Haniger's power on the way up. Keep in mind, everyone hits 25 homers now, with the juiced ball, launch angle, etc, etc. I see him as 30-35 every 150 games he plays.