SANDY-RALEIGH SAYS:
Doc, I know you've been ragging on the offense from day one. And I'm not suggesting that there isn't reason to be concerned. But, in all honesty, I think at this point you may be seeing what you want to see instead of what is.
FACT: End of week 3, team had a 77 OPS+FACT: End of week 4, team had an 86 OPS+
In a single week, the TEAM brought its OPS+ up 9 points. This was in conjunction with the swoon of Endy Chavez back to his normal levels. That 86 team OPS+ INCLUDES a year-long OPS from Endy of barely over 700. The club - AS IS - has only one full-timer "clearly" over what is expected, (Branyan). F-Gut is over his career numbers, (today he's at .821), but as a 26-year-old, there is nothing he is producing RIGHT NOW that looks obviously transient.
As of today, (after the poor showing against the Rangers), the OPS+ has dipped a hair (84). But, you've got Branyan "likely" to slip some. And F-gut - (the skeptic could say he's over-producing, but from my perspective that would be a reach -- he "may" be overproducing, but he also "may" be finally putting together the tools and talent and getting the production that has been expected for the last few years. Doing this at age 26 would NOT be a reach).
So, what does that leave?
CA: Johnson (46) and Joh (62). A rookie, "likely" to improve, but have peaks and valleys, and a vet who "lost it" last year - but who seems to have found what he lost since returning from the DL. EITHER of these guys could add 40 points to their current OPS+ figures without it being a reach. But, I'll be REALLY pessimistic and say that combined the two only improve 20 points total.
2B: Lopez (73) - does ANYONE think Jose has regressed this far? Another 30 points from Lopez is almost a given - another 50 if he actually breaks out.
3B: Beltre (39) - here's another 70 points of OPS that we can EXPECT to return. Beltre has had MULTIPLE months just as bad as April since with Seattle. He has always been a streak hitter. He was not centering pitches for most of April, (ridiculous infield fly rate), but seems to have started driving the ball the last week. Yes, the ones to the track are annoying, but that is mostly a GOOD sign - because that was not what he was doing early.
SS: Yubet (76) - Yes, this could be his real line for the season - but his OPS+ figures for his career have gone: 80, 86, 93, 85. "Same old" Yuni is still 10 points under his production level.
RF: Ichiro (90) - Best returning hitter on the club missed the first week, and 26 points under his career OPS, and 12 points under his worst season ever, ('02). Personally, his two early HRs had given me some initial hope that he might've rediscovered his power stroke. Honestly, I think that unlikely, but still believe he's AT LEAST 10 points under his season-long production level.
LF: Endy (89) / Wlad (126) - Endy is back down to expectation levels. But Wlad is showing just about every sign possible that he has SERIOUSLY improved as a hitter. That 126 is probably high. But, with a cooled off Endy bat, Wlad earns more PT, and if he "only" turns out to be a 110 producer, that's still additional offensive production compared to month 1, hard to quantify due to the aggregate nature - but another 10 points of combined OPS here doesn't seem unreasonable.
DH: Griffey (76) / Sweeney (88) -- Probably the best argument you have for a bat to replace. Then again, what is YOUR projection for this platoon? I could accept an 88 being about right for Sweeney. But I'm not ready to buy the concept that Griffey is completely done - even when healthy. I think a 95 OPS from Griffey is a reasonable (and conservative) estimate of what his side of that platoon can do over the whole season. Of course, I was thinking you were the guy with the position that Griffey needed to be starting in LF instead of Endy.
CA: +20; 2B: +30; 3B: +70; SS: +10; RF: +10; LF +10; DH +10
That's 160 points of additional OPS from 7 spots in the order. How much does that offset the 160 point drop from Branyan? Since it's 7 guys compared to 1, I'd say the REASONABLE expected improvement in offensive production completely overwhelms what Branyan is likely to surrender. Just like the club ALREADY did when Endy swooned, the improvement from multiple bats didn't just make up for the swoon, they turned the results into an aggregate gain.
But, why talk about what is to come:
Seattle team OPS+ over last 7 days = 101; over last 14 = 97.
"Maybe" the team offense is only a mid-90s OPS+. But, the team is already a mid-80s OPS+ team with SEVEN (7) positions performing below expectation. If only 5 of those bats get to where they should be, the team is mid-to-upper 90s. If all 7 come around, there is ZERO reason this offense cannot produce a year BETTER than the team in 2007.
=== Erikkkkkkk "Baseball's Best SP" Bedard ===
Bedard takes a shutout into the 7th inning. Fans seven Rangers and walks none. Has a vintage Erik Bedard Randy Johnson start.
Leaves the game tied. Does not win the game. Has a record of 2-1, 2.37 after six great starts.
That's got to be one of the TRULY frustrating things in sports -- each pitch is a separate athletic event, like a quarterback running a pass play and then throwing the ball. A guy like Bedard goes out there and throws 100 virtually perfect pitches -- and doesn't win. Once? sure. Every game? Huh.
So far, Erikkkkkkk has lost one game 2-0 on a bloop, had to win another 1-0, left deep in this one 1-1 and watched them lose, and of course he knows if anybody happens to get 3 runs on him, he has no chance... :- )
I do not understand how SP's don't go insane. You stroke the three-point shot, it hits the bottom of a tight net and bounces back out. How do you keep shooting?
But, they do. Awesome.
.................
Anyway, Erik Bedard is now sitting on 39 strikeouts against 6 walks, and I don't remember the Big Unit often doing THAT. In the American, anyway.
Felix and Bedard give the Mariners two Cy Young starters, one right and one left, both 9-10 K's, both groundball pitchers, both of them true champions. (Check Bedard's record against the New York Yankees, egbert.)
... Felix has just now evolved his game towards precision, and soon he's going to add change-speed to his location. He is about ready to take over the league. It's coming.
Where are you going to find another 10K lefty to team with Felix? You aren't. It would be SO wonderful to watch Felix and Bedard pitch their careers with the Seattle Mariners.
.
=== Rawhide Tough ===
The Rangers had 11 times as many hits as the Mariners did, after regulation. So, obviously, we were going to extras.
It goes to show just how tough the Mariners have been playing -- and it also shows how talented the Mariners are not.
According to Baseball Prospectus' W3/L3 stat, the Mariners had 113 adjusted runs scored, and 113 adjusted runs allowed -- going INTO tonight's game. Tomorrow that stat will show the Mariners being outscored on the season by several runs, in terms of "AEQRA/R."
What has the Mariners EVEN for adjusted runs, are SPECTACULAR performances by Erik Bedard, Jarrod Washburn and Felix Hernandez.
The grit and defense are fine, but I've never seen a team more in need of a 900 OPS+ hitter, an Adam Dunn type, in the 3 or 4 slot. Tell Erik Bedard that all you have to do is catch the ball and you'll be fine...
6 x 27 (games) = 162, and here the M's OPS+ sits at 85.
.
=== Adrian Beltre ===
Does it seem to you like he's been hitting a lot of line drives, that have hung up in left-center? Actually, he has:
.159 - BABIP in Safeco
.319 - BABIP on the road
What you are seeing in 2009, is Safeco doing its worst on poor Adrian. He gets his pitch, smokes it, and the ball hangs up for an out. Then he starts pressing (his K/BB is much worse at home).
Last year:
80 - OPS+ in Safeco
119 - OPS+ away
Believe it or don't: if Adrian were in Texas, a few balls would sneak over the wall, and then he would muscle up into hitting mistake pitches for homers. In Safeco, though, he unconsciously gets a "what's the use" mentality...
Adrian Beltre is a fine ballplayer, but guys like him sink worse and worse into the Safeco swamp the longer they're here (as Richie Sexson did, having a very unlucky 3rd year here and then a catastrophic 4th year).
I would certainly look for a Swisher-type deal. Re-signing Beltre would show a lack of awareness of the playing context he is in. Capt Jack and Wok have, to everybody's satisfaction, proven that they are willing to do the best thing for the team. Beltre can't prosper here long term, so as Pink Floyd would say, let's get on with it.
Beltre, in a hitter-friendly park, could be a major star. Other teams will be well aware of this fact.
Cheers,
Dr D