I've changed my stance on Branyan just due to the roster in '10.
Branyan can play a poor 3B and is an avergish 1B. If both Clement and Carp can't handle 1B then maybe extending Brayan for 2 years+options isn't a bad idea.
The .413 BABIP is just due for a huge regression. Hes going to regress from a 1.000 OPS bat to a 820-850 OPS bat pretty soon. If you can nab some nice specs for him, I'd definetly flip him too.
Still the division has taken another turn with the Hamilton injury. Kelvim Escobar look good in Anaheim, but both Ervin Santana and John Lackey look like damaged goods. This division is broken. 80-85 wins might actually do it.
Maybe we're back to being buyers again? A rental-big bat at DH (Thome?) and maybe Halman for Cliff Lee or something if you really want to make a statement.
Debate still rages over Russell Branyan, whether he has proven that he is legit, and whether he "solves" Safeco Field. Let the debate end.
D-O-V doesn't know whether "solved" is the right characterization :- ) because there is no "solution" to the conditions that Safeco creates...
However, any player who BB's a lot -- that player is going to render field conditions IRRELEVANT (for those plate appearances).
Any left-handed hitter who (1) gets the ball real high and (2) is strong, is going to hit HR's in Safeco at a NON-PENALIZED rate. Branyan doesn't hit extra homers at Safeco. It's that he hits the same amount, and everybody else hits less. *That is the same thing as hitting more.*
Lefty TTO players -- those who make their living on BB's, K's, and HR's -- are going to render field conditions irrelevant at Safeco. (You know what I mean.)
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It seems to have escaped notice, mostly, that the 2004-08 Mariners have stockpiled the photo-negative images of lefty TTO hitters: Chuck & Co. have hated strikeouts, loved contact hitters, loved speed (hence smaller, weaker players), and as it happens have a bunch of righty hitters.
Beltre, Lopez, Betancourt, and all the rest of them are tailor-made to be crushed by Safeco. You couldn't draw up a worse set of hitters for the park, if you literally set out to do so. Franklin Gutierrez is absolutely included in this (and we notice that Capt Jack has slated Dustin Ackley for center field -- probably in 2011.) Kenji Johjima is included in this. Wlad Balentien is.
Because the Mariners evidently felt insecure watching the strikeouts of deep-count hitters like Roberto Petagine -- and many of their fans do, also -- they have been charmed by ballplayers who are talented in making contact.
...Yuniesky Betancourt is *exceptionally* talented at putting the bat on the ball. As a rookie, with hardly any minors experience at all, he ran one of the best contact rates in the major leagues. Yuniesky could cover a 30-30 bullet with a willow switch.
Of course, then they get this type of player to the majors and they want to teach him how to walk, as though they had drafted Nick Swisher. It isn't education. It's a question of which players you select at the beginning. Who in the world has ever *taught* a free-swinging international player to draw 80 walks at the age of 25?
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Capt Jack isn't stockpiling batters who make solid contact every time they swing. He has announced his pursuit of left-handed power. That's huge.
I predict that Jack Zduriencik *will* get Branyan re-signed. Branyan is his first big glory home run. Branyan's a guy that Zduriencik quietly "saw" in Milwaukee, and bet on, and he pushed into the pot with "this guy gets 550 AB's". Now that the guy is hitting like Jim Thome, why wouldn't Zduriencik want to sit down and enjoy his called shot for a couple of years. Hey, when the co-GM's called Raul Ibanez right, they kept him around for 18 years and savored every moment of it.
What I don't get, is why M's fans aren't THRILLED with Russell Branyan. I guess we're not yet as convinced as we could be. Relax, kids. It's going to be all right.
;- )
Branyan will thump, and he will continue to defeat Safeco Field. Unless he plans to stop drawing walks and swinging hard.
I simply love watching the man play baseball. I'm looking forward to watching him for this year and 2-3 more.
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Comments
Which is all reasonable.
His BABIP will definitely fall, but how far? An 820-830 OPS would be merely his career average, and I thought you guys said he could improve vs LH's with more exposure?
He OPS'ed 925 for the Brew last year, and is at 1013 for us this year, so that's a good 950+ OPS over his last 400 or so plate appearances. Like Jack Cust, he's better now than he used to be.
Personally would take 830 -- that is, a 240/340/490 line -- as Branyan's downside now. But if he does, well, there are a whale of a lot of Mariners who don't slug .490 in Safeco. :- )
Yeah...that was a BOMB...LOL
460 feet to dead central at least.
Good point on his year in Milwaukee. For some reason I glanced by that.
In 2008 and 2009 Branyan has improved his contact rate (thanks to eye training excercises) and AND his power. After having an IsoP of .250ish over his career, hes been .300+ the last two years.
You know what? I've been assuming that his power would regress to career norms, but IF the power increases are for real than Branyan is an 850-900 OPS batter in Safeco even WHEN the BABIP starts normalizing.
Ya, I'm being convinced here. Re-sign him. Whether as a 1b or 3B hes fits in the next 2-3 years.
Replayed it about six times. :- ) I love the way he lets go of the bat and finishes with it flung over his shoulder pointed at the ground... in high school, I knew a golfer who would whale like that.
Blowers called it a "back-leg special." The TV guys said 450 feet, and it was high. What would the hang time have been?
I didn't realize that Branyan was 6'3", 230. He looks like 6'1", 215 to me. So I guess the 440-power is no accident.
He keeps this up, he may equal Gillick's sign of Bret Boone. Not a bad way to start the project, neh?
I'm sorry, but I don't really care about logical arguments about age and backlogs of first basemen in AAA...if they don't extend Branyan I'm going to be ticked off...we haven't had a batter this fun to watch since Edgar and Boone in 2001 excluding Ichiro! :D
He hits 'em high...hits 'em far...and hits 'em in bunches when he's seeing the ball well. Take two .900 OPS years of fun for the whole family and call me in the World Series.
...The best part about that HR...the look on Adam Jones' face when he turned around to watch it go. The man took three strides...stopped and started LAUGHING...the enemy CFer was chuckling at how bad his pitcher just got torched. :D
That stuff is PRICELESS.
I've been thrilled with Branyan since day one.
My position remains ...
explore trade possibilities -- and don't be afraid to let Branyan go, if he's going to get you an Elvis / Salty return.
explore extending him -- but don't go overboard on contract length, (but by all means give him some really good cash).
Simply put -- you have to know what your options are actually, before you commit to either decision. Deciding to sign him today, (and ignoring trade offers), only to find out that he's demanding 5 years minimum is going to be just as stupid as trading him tomorrow for Joel Pineiro. (Tampa managed to get Kazmir for the OTHER Zambrano -- and there are GMs out there capable of severely overpaying for a guy posting a 1000 OPS, even if he has been bench fodder for a decade). But, you can't find out how rich a haul you might get, unless you check it out first.
The argument over which would serve the organization better -- 3 years of Branyan or 10 years of the next Utley -- well, that's a reasonable debate.