Mid-summer Review: PITCHING

As fans, we have a tendency to see what is right in front of us at any given time and to give a sort of progressive grade.  We analyze each move and each decision in isolation and we fail to see the bigger picture sometimes.  An example would be the worry in some sectors that we gave up too much pitching depth when we traded for Snell and Wilson, and I’ll explain what I mean further down.  I think it is time we looked at the full organizational depth chart from September 30th, 2008 and from July 30th, 2009 to get a feel for the work Zduriencik has actually done to retool a team that went 61-101 with what would have to be described as a thin farm system to boot.

 For each position, we’ll start with the chart from 2008, and keep in mind that this chart is listed in the order that the major league team would be likely to call on a player should everyone else above him be injured, not in order of ceiling or their level in the minors or prospect rating or what have you.  This is intended to give the readers an idea of the shape of the franchise at two points in time.  After each section, we will give a letter grade to that position on the MLB roster, to the future potential in the minor leagues, and to the depth of service-worthy players you can use in some capacity to win your next pennant.  Each player on the major league depth chart will be graded on his readiness to fill the role he’s assigned while each player on the prospect depth chart will be graded on his status as a prospect (think odds of cracking the big leagues soon times odds of being an impact player).

 Starting Pitching (MLB - 2008)

 

  1. Felix Hernandez (A)
  2. Erik Bedard (B+)
  3. Carlos Silva (D-)
  4. Jarrod Washburn (C+)
  5. Ryan Rowland-Smith (C+)
  6. Miguel Batista (F)
  7. Brandon Morrow (C-)
  8. R.A. Dickey (D)
  9. Ryan Feierabend (F)

Starting Pitching (Prospects)

 

  1. Gaby Hernandez (D+)
  2. Andrew Baldwin (D+)
  3. Robert Rohrbaugh (D)
  4. Doug Fister (D+)
  5. Chris Jakubauskas (C-)
  6. Phillippe Auumont (B+)
  7. Edward Paredes (B+)
  8. J. C. Ramirez (B+)
  9. Michael Pineda (B)
  10. Nathan Adcock (B)
  11. Brett Lorin (B-)
  12. Ken Kasparek (C+)
  13. Fabian Williamson (C)

Lots of very interesting pitchers in the low minors, and a number of them are solid second tier blue chippers (anything in the B range) but none of them are “bet the farm” kinds of guys.  The top of the prospect depth chart is abysmal.  The Major league depth chart is pretty solid but definitely a little mushy at the bottom with a lot of #5 SPs competing for playing time, some of whom got their work in the bullpen.

MLB: B-

 Prospects: B-

 Depth: D+

 Overall: C+

 Starting Pitching (MLB - 2009)

  1. Felix Hernandez (A+)
  2. Erik Bedard (B)*
  3. Ian Snell (C-)
  4. Ryan Rowland-Smith (B-)
  5. Doug Fister (B)
  6. Lucas French (F)
  7. Jason Vargas (D)
  8. Garrett Olson (F)
  9. Chris Jakubauskas (D+)
  10. Carlos Silva (D-)*

 Starting Pitching (Prospects)

  1. Brandon Morrow (A-)
  2. Andrew Baldwin (D+)
  3. Gaby Hernandez (D)
  4. Daniel Cortes (B)
  5. J.C. Ramirez (B+)
  6. Michael Pineda (B+)
  7. Ken Kasparek (B)
  8. Mauricio Robles (B+)
  9. Edward Paredes (C+)
  10. Donald Hume (C)
  11. Alfredo Venegas (D)
  12. Maikel Cleto (C+)

There has been some concern that the Mariners are losing their low minors pitching depth.  And because I list only the remotely potentially relevant names in both analyses, you can see that indeed, Seattle has lost some quantity in the last 10 months.  However, what Z appears to be doing is converting quantity into Major League ready depth and minor league QUALITY.  To be fair, I moved Morrow back into the prospect bracket this year because I feel he is no longer on the major league depth chart until he gets his game going in Tacoma, and I have indicated some better grades for a couple of prospects this year as they’ve gone up a level and maintained their performance.  But I think it is still clear that Seattle is going with the best quality it can find in its starting pitchers and with quantity in its’ relievers (as you’ll see).

MLB: B

Prospects: B

Depth: B+

Overall: B

 

Relief Pitching (MLB - 2008)

 

  1. J.J. Putz (B-)
  2. Mark Lowe (B)
  3. Brandon Morrow (B+)
  4. Sean Green (C-)
  5. Roy Corcoran (D)
  6. Cesar Jimenez (C-)
  7. Miguel Batista (D+)
  8. Randy Messenger (D)
  9. Eric O’Flaherty (F)
  10. Jake Woods (F)
  11. Justin Thomas (D+)
  12. Jared Wells (F)
  13. Jon Huber (D-)
  14. Jorge Sosa (C)
  15. Denny Stark (D-)

Relief Pitching (Prospects)

 

  1. Shawn Kelley (B+)
  2. Mumba Rivera (F)
  3. Marwin Vega (D)
  4. Nick Hill (C)
  5. Chris Jakubauskas (C)
  6. Steve Uhlmansiek (D)
  7. Austin Bibens-Dirkx (C+)
  8. Justin Souza (C+)
  9. Phillippe Aumont (A)
  10. Cheyne Hann (C-)
  11. Blake Nation (B-)
  12. Eddy Fernandez (D)
  13. Matthew Renfree (D)
  14. Philip Roy (D+)
  15. Ben Pribanic (B)

Aside from Shawn Kelley and Phillippe Aumont, near-term bullpen help is unlikely to come from within the system at this time.  The major league pen is in flux with the injuries to Putz and the possibility of converting Morrow into a full time starting pitcher.  Beyond those two, the major league pen lacks any kind of serviceable depth.

MLB: C

Prospects: D

Depth: F

Overall: D+

 Relief Pitching (MLB - 2009)

  1. David Aardsma (A-)
  2. Mark Lowe (B+)
  3. Shawn Kelley (B+)
  4. Sean White (C)
  5. Miguel Batista (D+)
  6. Garrett Olson (C+)
  7. Robert Manuel )B-)
  8. Chris Jakubauskas (C)
  9. Randy Messenger (D+)
  10. Justin Thomas (D)
  11. Cesar Jimenez (C)
  12. Jesus Delgado (F)
  13. Chad Cordero (D)

Relief Pitching (Prospects)

  1. Josh Fields (A-)
  2. Phillippe Aumont (A-)
  3. Nick Hill (A)
  4. Marwin Vega (F)
  5. Mumba Rivera (D-)
  6. Edward Paredes (B+)
  7. Blake Nation (B-)
  8. Derreck Saito (C+)
  9. Cheyne Hann (C+)
  10. Ruben Flores (B-)
  11. Jose Jimenez (C+)

Below #12 on my minor league depth chart there are literally 8 or 10 more guys in low-A ball worth watching, but it is impossible to accurately grade them at this early stage without extensive scouting that I have not had the chance to do.  Other than Fields, Aumont and Paredes, there aren’t a lot of “sexy” relief prospects, but there are a lot of guys who may be able to contribute in smaller ways down the line – lots of Bs and Cs in the minors and lots of hard throwing but uninspiring bullpen depth at the big league level.  Zduriencik does not seem consumed with building a bullpen that makes everyone feel all warm and cozy inside.  He figures if he throws enough arms at the problem, he’ll find a combination that works.

MLB: B-

Prospects: B-

Depth: C+

Overall: B-

Comments

1

...For some unknown reason, this blog software feels the need to put approximately 57 lines of white space between text and list-format blocks, while randomly changing how large my font will appear to be to me while I'm editing and creaing weird discontinuities in format that I cannot correct.  So if there are errors or weird formats...sorry about that.
Incidentally...this is the first in a series I'll release over the next few days...the goal is to get the 30,000 foot view of Z's work to date in reforming the franchise.

2

... by how many of those grades are very similar to what I'd have had.  Interesting to see that you have strong reservations about Vargas and Olson, for example.
You've got Ian Snell up to B already?  When does he hit the Safeco rotation, skip?

4

...Some folks are unwilling or incapable of using the average part of their rating spectrum to actually mean average. :)  Have you ever noticed that when people grade prospects, they say a grade C prospect is a guy who is literally uninteresting org-depth fodder?  To me...a grade C prospect is an interesting, average prospect...a guy with an average chance to hit the big leagues (read...very small chance. :) ).  To me a C starting pitcher in the big leagues is an average one.
So I give Rowland-Smith a C+ (he'll be a little above average IMHO...think 105 ERA+ that's weighted down by lots of homers and helped by few walks and a low BABIP).  I give Vargas a D+...that means I think he's a somewhat below average MLB starter.  Think 85 ERA+ mushy.  Lots of HRs and a HIGH BABIP to go with the HRs.  He's tricksy and fights hard, but the talent just isn't there for him to be an MOR kind of guy.
And yes...I think Olson - as a starting pitcher - is utterly worthless until he proves otherwise.  When you make out a major league depth chart, you have to go by what they'll gie you in the next 12 months....not by potential.
As for Snell...get me Snell TOMORROW...forget this Vargas nonsense.  When he gets to Seattle, he's my man...and I tell him so.  He's a B with question marks...if he gets his groove on, he's a B+ or A- easily.  Before 2008 and the depression of playing for the league's most pathetic franchise NOT in DC, he was a 125 DNRA+ pitcher hard on the barrelhead.  You can count those on one hand in each league.  He's a TOR if he gets back to that.

6

It is a source of mild annoyance that this got utterly and completely BURIED by Doc's biggest hailstorm of posts in a short time period in about the last year...LOL
It would be nice if people could see that at one time this post existed.  Unfortunately, they cannot, because for some reason, it's not showing up.  Did I do something wrong?

8

I could throw Washburn's mug up there since he's the central figure for the Mariner pitching turnover the last few days.

9

I can insert images into a post, and I can browse all of the various images you've used at this blogsite, but I can't find any button or command for uploading a new image.

10

We got it.  Today the sidebar, tomorrow the world. :- )  :daps:

12

Since I've gotten to look at French and Fister, I edited some of my ratings a touch...For one thing, Fister's C+ prospect rating became a C+ ACTUAL rating (i.e. I have little doubt that he can be an above average major league starting pitcher, no sense saying that's upside anymore...that's real value now)...and Luke French has been dowgraded to a D (from a C-) due to extreme concerns about his inability to throw 80 pitches without severe velo drops, command loss and loss of snap on his slider.
I also dropped Vargas to a D (from a D+) reflecting my total loss of faith in his being anything more than org filler.

13

If we can't move around, we wither and die :- )

14
Taro's picture

My grade for French actually goes up. His upside is higher than I thought initially and hes a guy you pull once hes fatigued. 4-6 quality innings beats the snot out of 5-7 mediocre innings.
For French the whole issue is his stamina. In the next year we're going to find out whether he can build that arm up or not.
I missed the third inning on when Fister really shined, but I've learned not to get too nuts about a single start. Fringe arsenal without a single above-average breaking pitch gives him an incredibly small margin for error. Your belief on him depends on how good you think his command/pitchability is.
Fister has a lower upside than French, although arguably hes probably already close to that upsidie (#5-6 SP).
I'd rate French around C+ and Fister around D+.

16

French's upside might be higher, but his probability of being worth anything at all is close to zero if he cannot pitch more than 4 innings without imploding his velo and break.  He's damaged good.
I am much more interested in starting pitchers who can give me 7 quality pitch efficient innings even if they don't overpower people because with THIS park and THIS defense, those are the guys you can bag for cheap and then bank 200 4.20 ERA innings.  I'm running a Cardinals' style pitching staff if I'm in charge of the Mariners.  bag an ace or two and then fill in with rubber arms who throw strikes.

17

I've made the edits to my grades that I felt were necessary to reflect changes in my thinking regarding the pitching for 2010.  I will make similar changes where necessary for the offense, including the rise of Bill Hall and some new thinking on Jack Wilson, Michael Saunders and Mike Carp

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