I'm sold on datamiing minor league data bases and making your own metrics. I believe analysts should study more game theory to get a feel for baseball. Anyways, My favorite hitting state currently is SLGBBSB. Actually calculation is SLG x ( BB/[AB+BB] ) x (SB-CS/ [H+BB ]). Then to evaluate players focus on big picture. Just look at the career numbers and look for large samples.
On the pitching side, I ditch velocity. Why? It's too expensive! Face it a career ace in the mid 90s is so much more costlier then loading up a organization with Jamie Moyer, Andy Sonnastine , Kevin Slowey , Gred Maddux types. Their's tons of this pitchers and I'd gladly trade away a 100mph hurler for the chance to lock up two low WHIP high 6+k/bb type pitchers who rarely every walk the batter. Clubs should forget the WS picture and focus on the DYNASTY picture.
I'll even go further and say that any team in the MLB right now with 30 million to spare can win the WS within next 5 years by just making better purchases of players. Forget spending $20 million on one player.
Dan Duke, at Mariner Central, raises a question that is of the first order of magnitude:
Given that most of us aren't GMs, do you have a preferred way to find a "jumping off point" for a player's expected contribution? For example, the PECOTA weighted mean expectation? Or perhaps the weighted mean with a risk adjustment? How would you go about projecting a player for next year?
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I think if you're a GM, you have the responsibility to make your own projections. And, that is what GM's in fact do.
If a major-league General Manager ever used PECOTA's 50th-percentile projections to make all of his decisions during a season, he would truly deserve to be fired for incompetence.
What, Jack Zduriencik isn't down by the batting cage assessing Bill Hall's ability to fix his problems? Zduriencik isn't in the video room, assessing Brandon Morrow's ability to refine his release point? Zduriencik is no better-informed on his own players than Baseball Prospectus is?
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You play roto, right, Dan? How do you do it? :- )
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For bulk listings, I
- (a) start with Ron Shandler's projections;
- (b) look at his SKILL data to find things out of alignment;
- (c) try to consider the RotoTimes player notes and the player's template and comps;
- (d) come up with my own final, um, guess.
Dan asked about a "jumping-off point." You could use any reasonable jumping-off point -- Shandler, PECOTA, whatever. The key is that you then apply your own judgment as to whether you expect the 2010 player to perform better or worse than the generic, vanilla averages.
I use Shandler rather than unadjusted, weighted averages because Shandler has already taken the weighted averages and tweaked them to match things that are out of alignment in the stats -- and he has explained to you the tweaks that he has made.
Just for instance, in 2009, Shandler predicted Kenji Johjima for a rebound, for his SLG to go from .336 actual in 2008 to .415 projected in 2009 (Joh actually slugged .406). He explained why: "age, xAVG, H% and history." In other words, Joh had a lousy BABIP in 2008; he is still relatively young; and he has proven himself a quality hitter.
Johjima's 2008 H% was out of alignment, and spotting that, Shandler correctly predicted him to rebound. Any Mariners fan would have, but Shandler isn't a Mariners fan.
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Some players we have time to project on a more detailed level. For the Mariners, or guys we POTD like J.J. Hardy, we reason it out as detailed in the POTD's on SSI. My reasons for projecting Hardy are the same as those listed: declining LD rate, poor FB performance ... small, weak RH "power" hitter template, etc.
When Tim Lincecum and Jered Weaver and Justin Verlander were in AAA, I was projecting them to make instant star impact in the major leagues based not on a weighted-mean MLE formula, but based on the factors that are spelled out in the Lincecum POTD's. Such as the fact that Lincecum's giant pinwheel-leap off the mound, and hidden 55-foot fastball, were backed by shocking results: Timmy had twice the K's (and twice the wheat) that Brand Morrow did in the same college league.
Not sure if that addresses what you're talking about. :- )
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One thing I fervently avoid doing, is letting a weighted-mean formula dictate to me the "correct" projection for a player. I will guarantee you that Jack Zduriencik never finishes the cabinet with such a naive sanding process.
I respect a roto enemy who thinks that he can win a league with (say) PECOTA or some other automated projection system.
I've got no respect for a paradigm that says automated projections give us "correct" evaluations and that deviating from them is "wrong." Anybody who wants to publicly commit to using PECOTA-only decisionmaking processes, is quite welcome to finish 10th of 12 against us in next year's roto league. ;- )
The GMs who win World Series, such as Gillick and Epstein, blend "automated" projections with their own advanced intel, and superior intuition, as to who is going to have a good year.
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As Bill James told us recently vis-a-vis the way the Red Sox do it, "You just have to look at all of it. You have to look at the [computer] projections, and what's out of alignment in his [skills] trends, and where a guy's FB velocity is going, and what the scouting reports are, and what the doctors are saying, and how his new pitch is coming along, and you have to make a call."
We don't want to buy into the idea that weighted-mean averages are good enough. That would be naive.
Cheers,
Dr D
Comments
...there are 1000 Ryan Feierabends.
The reason velocity is expensive is that there is less risk and more upside with high velocity pitchers. Greg Maddux is very VERY hard to develop internally.
Would like to see a few examples of hitters you nabbed early, with the SLGBBSB x-ray glasses. Good stuff.
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Pitchers with 6+ K's and very low BB's are going to have very high CTL ratios and those are captured by Shandler-ites.
Since the 1980's, James has preferred 6.5 strikeouts and 2.0 walks to 8 strikeouts and 4 walks. I remember Greg Swindell as being one guy that he was always getting into arguments about, with his fellow 1980's sabermetricians. Review Swindell's K/BB lines. This is exactly the kind of pitcher that was a "find" in 1990. :- )
Think your judgment is spot-on amigo, that 6.5 and 2.0 is better than 8 and 4 ... question is whether you're going to find any of those guys overlooked...
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John Lackey is a guy who looks better as you laser-focus on K/BB and de-emphasize velo ... 7+ strikeouts, low 2's for walks... a true franchise pitcher...
On the lower end, bargain-hunting, Doug Fister is a guy that I champion precisely because I love super-low BB's in any pitcher who can strike out a few guys.
Most modern sabermetricians will use xERA, FIP, or some variation thereof, skipping to the bottom line, to peg a pitcher's talent.
James, and I, start with K/BB because it's a more direct talent indicator. A guy with excellent K/BB, but questionable results (ERA, FIP) will frequently show you the great results later.
By the time you back a guy due to his ERA or xERA or FIP, it's too late. Everybody knows he's good.
When we over-emphasize FIP in forward-forecasting, we're making fundamentally the same philosophical error that sportswriters used to make with ERA. "Show me the results, and then I'll jump on the bandwagon."
Sent a notice about recovering my account pswd out, but haven't heard anything yet. I also had a post here yesterday that somehow isn't there anymore. For shame.
Good piece, Doc. With a few minor exceptions, I follow mostly the same path to projection - start with PECOTA/James/CHONE/what have you, to anchor my expectations to something sensible, and then use my own judgments and research to make refinements.
However, I must challenge the notion that weighted-mean averages are not good enough. For 90%+ of fantasy baseball players, using the BP Player Forecast Manager would result in a successful or even highly successful season. I used the PFM almost exclusively to draft my CBS team last year and finished #1 in points with a championship game appearance. Granted, it was a 10-team all MLB league. But then again, isn't that what most fantasy players are doing?
More generally, I'd compare following the Marcels the Monkey system or a similar computer forecast to buying equity index funds to save for retirement. Sure, you could definitely make a killing with shrewd stock picking. But the bottom line is that most people fail to beat a passively managed savings vehicle, especially when you consider the higher transaction costs involved and our innate desire to "sell high" on winners and "ride out" the losers (in terms of taxes, we should be doing exactly the opposite!).
Last year was the first year I projected players extensively, so it's still a work-in-progress for me. That's why I asked for your thoughts! I participated in a few 30 team monster leagues last year. They were fun at first, but the sheer amount of time necessary to devote towards making them good and completely byzantine transaction rules (they were dynasty leagues) led me to dump each. I will probably look around for ONE keeper-type league for 2010 but that's it.
Sent a notice about recovering my account pswd out, but haven't heard anything yet. I also had a post here yesterday that somehow isn't there anymore. For shame.
Good piece, Doc. With a few minor exceptions, I follow mostly the same path to projection - start with PECOTA/James/CHONE/what have you, to anchor my expectations to something sensible, and then use my own judgments and research to make refinements.
However, I must challenge the notion that weighted-mean averages are not good enough. For 90%+ of fantasy baseball players, using the BP Player Forecast Manager would result in a successful or even highly successful season. I used the PFM almost exclusively to draft my CBS team last year and finished #1 in points with a championship game appearance. Granted, it was a 10-team all MLB league. But then again, isn't that what most fantasy players are doing?
More generally, I'd compare following the Marcels the Monkey system or a similar computer forecast to buying equity index funds to save for retirement. Sure, you could definitely make a killing with shrewd stock picking. But the bottom line is that most people fail to beat a passively managed savings vehicle, especially when you consider the higher transaction costs involved and our innate desire to "sell high" on winners and "ride out" the losers (in terms of taxes, we should be doing exactly the opposite!).
Last year was the first year I projected players extensively, so it's still a work-in-progress for me. That's why I asked for your thoughts! I participated in a few 30 team monster leagues last year. They were fun at first, but the sheer amount of time necessary to devote towards making them good and completely byzantine transaction rules (they were dynasty leagues) led me to dump each. I will probably look around for ONE keeper-type league for 2010 but that's it.
Maybe most saberdweebs do...I look at DNRA+ when I want to get a final read on what a pitcher has done to date and ground my tools-based projections on something real...but I look at the tools stuff first.
That's K/BB, HR rate, GB/FB, S%, Sw-S% (if it applies), impacts on batted ball distributions.
As you know, we didn't censor anything deliberately...
Will ask about it... thanks for bearing with us... you are an extremely valued contributor amigo...
For 90%+ of fantasy baseball players, using the BP Player Forecast Manager would result in a successful or even highly successful season.
Maybe more than 90%, considering the competition on the national level :- )
In the *typical* roto league, we 'net rats don't have time to do a better job than PECOTA in projecting (say) J.J. Hardy or Brandon Morrow, if he is out-of-area.
By the time we zero in on a guy -- Hardy or Hall or Bay or Fister -- we'd better be able to capture more information than PECOTA has.
GM's of course have that time, via their staffs.
"Would like to see a few examples of hitters you nabbed early, with the SLGBBSB x-ray glasses. Good stuff."
A potential top 5 SS in 3-4 seasons off everyones radar. Michael Richard of Oakland.
Has ZERO HR potential but HAS potential for 100+ SB in a season.
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/R/Michael-Richard.shtml
Because he has ZERO HR potential his OPS is pathetic and Oakland grabbed him in the 2007 11th round. But look at his college numbers their outright scary. .527 SLG but with only 2 HR in 200 ab's. So how is he getting extra bases? Simple he's running around the diamond so quickly that it translates into extra bases. His last year in college also represented a SLGBBSB of over 1.0 which mean's he worth over a base per AB.
Logan Forsythe. Ok had my eye on logan in my fantasy league before baseball america took notice. Great college numbers and great minor league numbers. Petco won't matter since his numbers don't point to power but he does have 40-50SB potential. Also the traditional OBP is .430. So you basically have a Youkillis/Olerud mold but with more speed.
What's nice about these 2 players is ballpark won't impact their slging since their footspeed becomes a significant contributer to the overall number of bases value.
Also in the Stratonerds league grabbed some traditional mlb players at pretty low with these metrics notably Derek Jeter before the season started, Scott Hariston last year, Jack Cust 2 years, Carlos Quentin before his value sored but I think going with pure slging examples is a bit too easy. So let me throw some slging types who will end up sooner or later via FA or on waiver wire Jack Cust, Ryan Shealy, Dallas Mcpherson(throw 50 million at him for 5 seasons NOW), Chris Shelton(what is he doing in AAA?!).
It's kinda amazing really because their is like a whole generation of hitters in AAA who don't even get a fair amount of AB's in major league because some other player has raw tools but only gets on base 30% of the time. Somehow I think players with 40+% OBP should get more notice especially if they SLGBBSB is over 0.7 since that's close to 3/4 of a base per AB.
Mike Mccardell
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/M/Mike-McCardell.shtml
Scott Lewis
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/L/Scott-Lewis-1.shtml
Pat venditte(150 IP releiver more durability because he's a switch pitcher. Think Huston Street with both arms)
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/V/Pat-Venditte.shtml
Byran Augenstein http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/A/Bryan-Augenstein.shtml
Rudy owens(cheap power pitcher. Pirates nabbed this starter in 28th round)
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/O/Rudy-Owens.shtm
Bobby Bell crazy numbers in A+
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/B/Bobby-Bell.shtml
Ok so named a few pitchers of interest(mainly from my stratonerds prospect list :-))
Cheers,
When we get a sec we'd like to look at those guys.
:daps: