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Now that's a nice pickup!
Yusmerio Petit is PERFECT for Safeco ;-)
The Joy of Stars and Scrubs - Zduriencik's Mariners
If I saw laser beams shooting through this dude's glasses and melting Scott Boras into a sizzling puddle of plasma, I wouldn't be shocked.
This guy plays HARDBALL...even with the fan favorites like Russell the Muscle (see my comments on the Mariners' alleged pursuit of Lyle Overbay). The Ms may still give Branyan his money, since he's not asking for fair market value for his potential level of production (in this environment, he can't, especially with his back injuries), but he's having a hard time getting Z to give him even half what he probably should get. As I opined elsewhere, the Mariners' new focus on Stars and Scrubs and reduced interest in long term contracts (yes, Virginia, this team DOES learn from its mistakes!), is going to do three major things to the Mariners going forward (assuming of course that they stick with their current gameplan):
- It's going to cause their roster to change a lot more from year to year than we Mariner fans are accustomed to seeing. If you're the type that gets highly emotionally attached to players, it might get a lot more uncomfortable for you in the future.
- It's going to prevent us from getting hosed on long term contracts like the Carlos Silva deal...though this may come at the cost of continuing to miss all of the big time free agents, depending on whether Zduriencik's bosses approve of him occasionally splurging to get a star in here.
- It's going to mean that we enter every single off-season with lots of money to spend, lots of roster flexibility, lots of trade talks and lots of uncertainty and that our year to year W/L record may be more unstable than average.
But to illustrate how different the Mariner situation is compared to the Angel outlook...here's Seattle's contract commitments through 2011 (for the sake of argument I'm going to count Ichiro's deferred money this time...but you could argue that Z isn't counting it):
- RF) Ichiro - 18.0 - 18.0 (STAR)
- SP) Carlos Silva - 12.75 - 12.75 (CIVIC)
- SP) Felix Hernandez - 8.0 (Arb 2) - 15.0 (Arb 3) (STAR)
- SS) Jack Wilson - 5.0 - 5.0 (CIVIC)
- SP) Ian Snell - 4.45 - OPT (6.75) (CIVIC)
- 2B) Jose Lopez - 2.0 - 2.75 (SCRUB)
- DH) Ken Griffey Jr. - 2.0 - FA (SCRUB)
- UT) Bill Hall - 1.88 - FA (SCRUB)
- CF) Franklin Gutierrez - 2.0 (Arb 1) - 5.0 (Arb 2) (SCRUB to CIVIC)
- CL) David Aardsma - 1.5 (Arb 1) - 3.0 (Arb 2) (SCRUB)
- RP) Mark Lowe - 0.8 (Arb 1) - 2.0 (Arb 2) (SCRUB)
- OF) Ryan Langerhans - 0.7 (Arb 2) - 1.0 (Arb 3) (SCRUB)
- SS) Yuniesky Betancourt - 1.0 to Royals - 1.0 to Royals
- SP) Ryan Rowland-Smith - 0.6 (CC) - 1.5 (Arb 1) (SCRUB)
- SP) Brandon Morrow - 0.6 (CC) - 1.2 (Arb 1) (SCRUB)
- P) Garrett Olson - 0.45 (CC) - 0.6 (Arb 1) (SCRUB)
- IF) Jakc Hannahan - 0.45 (CC) - 0.6 (Arb 1) (SCRUB)
- SP) Yusmiero Petit - 0.40 (CC) - 0.6 (Arb 1) (SCRUB)
- 13 players ineligible for Arb - ~ 5 mil - ~ 6.5 mil
Doing a little totalling for the readership:
2010: ~$67.5 Mil
2011: ~77.5 Mil
The 2011 total may be misleading because there's a high probability that Hernandez will be signed for something slightly less than 15 mil in the second year of his new contract or he'll be traded...and there's an even higher probability that guys like Aardsma, Lowe, and Langerhans won't still be here in 2011. I didn't cout Snell's club option in my 2011 total either, just as wouldn't have counted an option in the Angels' totals had they had any players signed to contracts with option years.
Nonetheless, the Mariner payroll stood at $98.9 mil last year and it should go UP slightly or stay the same in 2010, so even including 8 million dollars going to Felix Hernandez and the money already spent on Ken Griffey Jr. and Jack Wilson, we still have 30 million dollars to spend and unlike the Angels, we have no reason to fear giving out a longer contract to the right star player should such an opportunity arise. Our contract commitments after 2011 plummit to something like $40 mil even if you include some huge estimate for Felix Hernandez, and we've got a much easier time of it trading pieces in and out because we're not dealing with 10 arbitration cases all at once the way the Angels are. We also have the capacity to expand our payroll if economic conditions improve or if we start winning again and attendence and TV viewership improves. The Angels don't. They're already maxing out their potential revenue stream and their resulting payroll.
I hope you've enjoyed my little sermon today. I certainly had fun gathering the data.
Comments
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Picked him up off waivers from 'Zona.
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SP) Carlos Silva - 12.75 - 12.75 (CIVIC)
I would be glad if Silva performs like a Civic in 2010.
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The term civic refers tohow a player is paid and what the expectations are for that pay...not to how they actually perform.
Silva is the CLASSIC civic...paid fair market value for the expectation that he would be a rotation stabilizing MOR. The fact that msot of us could see before the deal was signed that Silva wasn't actually an MOR starter doesn't change the paradigm that he represents.
5
How do you rate Petit? Is he good enough to be a #4 starter in the AL or is he just a warm body like French, Vargas and Olson?
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Good but not spectacular stuff...a lot of potential if he ever learned to pitch away from the longball, but probably best used as a reliever.
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"It's going to cause their roster to change a lot more from year to year than we Mariner fans are accustomed to seeing. If you're the type that gets highly emotionally attached to players, it might get a lot more uncomfortable for you in the future."
"Just load load up and keep reloading Capn' Jack Ahrrrrr".
8
I wanted your opinion of his stats because that is why he was picked up. His repetoire is considered weak with no upside so scouts don't like him but he's been given a chance because of some great numbers in the minor leagues and his strikeout rate has been pretty good in the majors. What's your saber take on him?
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Decent stuff (as shown by the K rate)...better than scouts claim because he's very deceptive. But he's always had horrible problems keeping the HR rate down because of the extreme flyball results he gets. With our park and defense, he might do better here than anywhere else, but you can't defend against 400 foot home runs.
50 HRs in 229 MLB innings = OH MON DIO!!!
His minor league HR rate has been rather poor too, BTW, especially recently. He does have (and has always had) enough deception to miss lots of bats...his Sw-S% is good year to year and the minor league K rate is very nice as is his MLB and MiLB K/BB...but he's getting too much of the plate. He's rather like Cha Seung Baek in that regard.
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...but based on his 251 hits in 229.1 IP for teams that were roughly average defensively when you comnbined them and 50 HRs...I'm gonna guess it's not good.
EDIT TO ADD:
I just calcualted 2007 to get a sample...team BABIP allowed was .298 in 2007 with a slightly higher 2B and 3B rate than normal because their park has wide gaps and the ball carries well in Arizona...Petit actually saved about 3 in play hits against defensive norms but allowed an extra double (flyball pitcher...makes sense)...
The 12 HRs just KILL him though...even park adjusted (and 'Zona is one of the worst HR parks in the NL) he's giving up about 5.5 HRs more than his should in 57 innings.
Net DNRA+ for 2007 was 68
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I wouldn't call it an evil stare. I'd call it the look that can see straight through [baloney].
13
OK.
Will theCivics Ian Snell and Silva who have low BB/9 perform better in 2010?
Is there a chance?
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I'm working under the assumption that the Mariners keep Silva around in the bullpen this year and he gets into the rotation only in the case of an emergency...but as a mop-up man, there's certainly a chance Silva can improve on his current Mariner stat line. His problem in 2009 was health and the long ball...if he keeps it in the yard, he can keep his ERA under 5. Snell has #2 type stuff...he just needs to be more consistent with his gameplan.