Up until '08 I saw Granderson as a 4 WARish player. Thats flat-out excellent in its own right, but I believe that Granderson showed GROWTH in 2009.
I love the changes he made in his hitting approach in '09. A new focus on raising his flyball% increased his XBH/HR output and his '09 BABIP was very unlucky. His contact percentage was the HIGHEST of his career at 80.5% (and has been rising 3 years straight).
Heres Curtis Granderson's adjusted 2009 line using his career GB/FB/LD BABIP rates (he gains 11 singles, 7 doubles, and 3 triples):
.282/.360/.507
This is no joke. Granderson's actual BABIP in '09 was .275. His expected BABIP in '09 (using his career BIP marks) was .320. His career BABIP is .321. It doesn't GET more clear cut than this.
What we have here is a rare case of a hitter who somehow both improved AND was dreadfully unluckly in the same season. The beautiful thing is that even Granderson's HR output wasn't lucky in '09 as his career 12.2 HR/FB% proves (12.6% in '09). The rise in HRs was DIRECTLY a result of a rise in flyball%. If the flyball% stays high, the HR output will as well.
Would I want that kind of lefty bat in Safeco with 30 HR power, above average OBP with blazing speed, and awesome D in a corner for $5mil? ... Are you kidding me? Ackley can stay in the minors until next year, and you can trade Granderson in a year or two once hes completely ready.
Something like Morrow+Saunders+Kelley for Granderson+Jackson would fill me with joy like I've never felt since 2001. The Ms would really be in this thing.
Q. Is Granderson one of the best players in the game? Is he worth $18M a year?
A. That's another POTD :- ) but do be aware that fangraphs.com docks Granderson -10.0 runs, hard on the barrelhead, the moment he steps from CF to LF.
That's $5M worth of value. Fangraphs had Granderson at $15M worth of performance last year; if he'd played LF* that would have been $10M worth. $10M worth of performance, for a veteran, is right around league average.
So you figure Granderson to repeat 2009, and be worth +25 runs or so in 2010, as a left fielder. Roto champ Cool Papa is looking for +40 runs from Michael Saunders one day soon, at non-arb or Arb1 money. What's the imperative to trade?
Most teams have a LF prospect they like. Once you're talking about a veteran LF whose production isn't far above league average, well, LF becomes an attractive place to play your young hotshot.
*Granted, Granderson's defensive numbers would be better, compared to LF's, than they would compared to CF's. This would recoup some value.
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Don't get me wrong. Granderson's an exciting add. Kind of reminds me of Carl Crawford, who is one of my fave players.
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Q. Do the Tigers properly value Granderson?
A. UZR-oriented amigos fell maaaaaaaadly in love with Granderson in 2006-07, when he racked up huge defensive #'s and was worth, supposedly, $45M over the two seasons.
I'm not saying it pejoratively. It's just tough to be objective on our adopt-a-players. :- )
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But bear in mind that Tigers fans themselves -- smart ones, too -- consider Curtis Granderson quite overrated.
Tigers fans see Granderson as a quality baseball player, but those who have been watching Granderson for the last four years, roll their eyes at the idea that he's a big star.
Think about Raul Ibanez when he was here. He hit 80 homers and drove in 330 runs in his last three years ... .290, 27, 110. Fans in other cities went, "Wow, what if we could get Rauuuuul! He just hit 33 homers!" ... we go, uh, ok. You can have him. Watching Raul every day, we just didn't see him as a premium talent.
That's exactly how Tigers fans -- and Tigers' management, it appears -- look at Granderson. He's a good player, but watching him day-in, day-out they're not ga-ga.
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Q. Is he declining at 28?
A. That's another POTD.
Granderson's saber-fans often go ballistic at this suggestion, citing his bad BABIP "luck" in 2009.
Suffice it to say that many Tigers' fans are queasy about where his career is going, citing the fact that LOOGYs fight to get to the pitching rubber against him in the 8th inning, as well as his 135-123-100 OPS+ trend the last few years.
Could a player decline at 28? Ask J.J. Hardy and Bill Hall.
Granderson's not going to wash out of the league, of course. But can a guy decline unexpectedly before he gets old? Happens all the time. Bobby Higginson, one of Granderson's most-comps, had it happen.
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As we've mentioned many times, MLB organization X relies heavily on the scouting done by MLB organization Y -- when Y owns the player they're looking at.
If the Tigers have been watching Granderson play and are suspiciously willing to move him, that's going to create some skittishness.
I don't think Granderson is necessarily declining against RHP, but the questions are there are could easily impact his value.
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Q. Would you guess that the M's are in on him?
A. Well, we do keep hearing that the M's are keen to trade for a LF -- because that's where you could plug in serious offensive help. The M's need offense, and they're not going to add it at SS, right?
My own guess :- ) would be that Capt Jack would prefer other options for his big LF/DH add -- I doubt he's any more overwhelmed by Granderson than I, or the Tigers, are. But I would guess that Granderson's on the list, and the man is a good player. He does bring a lot to the table.
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Q. Does SSI like him?
A. He's not a franchise player by any stretch of the imagination, but as a member of a supporting cast, you could win a championship with him.
Deployed the right way, and in an upside scenario, Granderson could be a top-flight offensive and defensive weapon over a 130-game grid.
I'd like to hear more, and we probably will.
Cheers,
Dr D
Comments
If your take is on target, as it usually is, you'd have a talented young player who "opened up his swing" without adding strikeouts.
Supposing you're right and his arc is still going up - what do you do with Granderson's problemos vs LH? Do you pinch-hit for him late in games, or let him ride it out, or ?
I wouldn't argue that he'd go up further than this (I think this is close to his ceiling).
If he maintains his skill gains though, he can repeat. Even a slight fallback from his '09 FB% and he'll still be a slightly better version over his career numbers.
He was extremely unlucky in '09 and changed his approach at the plate. In Safeco with a sligtly lower FB% I'd bet on a 840-50ish OPS (that number would go up if you steal some ABs vs elite lefties).
Hes got legitimate issues vs Lhs.
I wouldn't mind platooning him, but a soft-platoon vs tough lefties should be enough . You could rotate Bill Hall in LF every once in awhile. You can also rest Gut and Granderson on opposite days to play the platoon splits.
... had him as a perennial 30-30 man ... (FWIW Matty!) ...
Your assessment that Granderson has deliberately started turning on the ball and going for jacks, that's interesting, and you back it up with some data... very similar to what I've always predicted for Lopez...
It's funny because he doesn't physically look like the 30-dong, 140-strikeout guy, because not many of them add 20 triples into the mix :- ) but you have to be nimble in pegging the unorthodox templates...
Well, the difference is Granderson's career Hr/FB% and raw power are much higher than Lopez's. His 30 HR output is identical to his expected HR output using his career HR/FB%. Checking his hit tracker as well, Granderson is very Safeco-friendly:
http://www.hittrackeronline.com/detail.php?id=2009_4465&type=hitter
If we used Lopez's career HR/FB% rate, we get an expected HR output of 17.3 HRs. Although Lopez was very unlucky in raw BABIP, he was also pretty lucky in HR output.
I'm going to do an adjusted AVG/OBP/SLG line on Lopez later today. Hes going to lose 8 HRs, but I expect him to also gain double digits in hits.
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